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What I have found over many years of doing real estate is that there are ALWAYS a distribution of prices. It is NEVER a perfect guassion distribution but the "bell shape" generally is the rough rule.
The MAJORITY of smarter sellers will try to set prices in the fat part of the curve that are not too high or too low in the spring. The summer tends to see more laid back / optimistic sellers come on the market BOTH too high and a little smaller group of more desperate / poorer condition sellers come on with "depressed" prices. By fall some of those sellers will be cutting prices while the stubborn ones will stand on their unrealistic prices. Anyone unfortunate enough to be listing in the fall that NEEDS to sell will again be coming in at the "tails" but generally the "fall bulge" is heavier with those in the low priced tail, with only a small number of optimistic / unrealistic sellers coming in those high price points when folks with schools age kids have their wallets seasonally emptied...
The school driven and weather related stuff is very consistent in my neck of the woods (suburban Chicago) but I suspect in areas with different weather and other mix of childless households the shifts may not be as dramatic.
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