When will the Real-Estate market turn around? (2010, agents, investment)

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by Roselvr

If the agents want to list your house, why not put it on the market to see if they can really sell it? Our house should have been snapped up pretty quick, but here it sits after 3 months. We just got a new agent, so hopefully that will help.

Anyway, I might have gone FSBO also but am not sure if I can deal with showings & stuff with my bad back. I'd be afraid to do this on my own during the week.

If we did FSBO, we could lower the price by the commission amount and probably sell tomorrow.

Been there, done that. FSBO will make the situation for desperate sellers today even worse. Truth is, you need to have maximum exposure in today's market. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves.

[DavidS827]

Nationwide I think it will probably be '09, but I feel that we have already hit the bottom here in my area and have started to recover just a bit. Our days on market has been decreasing slightly every month and prices have been rising a bit as well.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by DavidS827

Nationwide I think it will probably be '09, but I feel that we have already hit the bottom here in my area and have started to recover just a bit. Our days on market has been decreasing slightly every month and prices have been rising a bit as well.

David, you are in Prince William County, correct?

6 months ago Prince William County had 10 months of inventory backlog, today your county has 14.3 months of inventory backlog.

Northern Virginia Real Estate Guide Daily Real Estate Market Watch

How could you make that prediction when your inventory numbers are the highest they've every been? You have over a years worth of backlog to get rid of. Where are you getting your data from to make these predictions??

[DavidS827]

Prince wiliam County is the county I live in, but it does not make up my entire market. Take a look at Fairfax, Arlington, Loudoun, the City of Falls Church, the City of Fairfax and the City of Alexandria. My data comes from MRIS (the only definitive source for accurate real estate info for this area) and their monthly publication of the market statistics. We also have some of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation ( I think the area average about 2 1/2%+-), one of the best school systems in the country and low taxes and insurance rates. To further influence the market, it is projected that over 44k jobs will be created this year and over 51k next year in the DC metro region. Of that, about 45% will be in Northern Va...and those people all have to live somewhere.

and besides all that...I have just seen a drastic change in activity since this time last year when the phones were dead and didn't ring b/w sept and dec.

[DavidS827]

Originally Posted by CouponJack

6 months ago Prince William County had 10 months of inventory backlog, today your county has 14.3 months of inventory backlog.

We also have a huge problem with the inventory being overstated here. Builders will leave their sold homes in the MLS to attract buyers. We also have a lot of people who have two homes on the market and when one sells, two homes come off, as they will just move into the one that doesn't sell. Then there are the countless number of agents that list the same home twice. Sometimes it's b/c the town that the home is in just isn't that well known (this happens more so in PW county as we are an outer suburc of DC) and sometimes it is listed with the wrong specs. For example, there are a ton of agents that list a house as being a 4BR and then relist the same house as a 5BR. They do this b/c there is a "bedroom" in the basement, but it doesn't meet county code, so it can't be counted. I actually just sold a house that was listed as a 5BR, but legally is only 4.


The misinformation has become so bad that MRIS has imposed $1,000 fines for agents that violate the rules and will actually suspend their access if they repeat it.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by DavidS827

Prince wiliam County is the county I live in, but it does not make up my entire market. Take a look at Fairfax, Arlington, Loudoun, the City of Falls Church, the City of Fairfax and the City of Alexandria. My data comes from MRIS (the only definitive source for accurate real estate info for this area) and their monthly publication of the market statistics. We also have some of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation ( I think the area average about 2 1/2%+-), one of the best school systems in the country and low taxes and insurance rates. To further influence the market, it is projected that over 44k jobs will be created this year and over 51k next year in the DC metro region. Of that, about 45% will be in Northern Va...and those people all have to live somewhere.

and besides all that...I have just seen a drastic change in activity since this time last year when the phones were dead and didn't ring b/w sept and dec.

Again, look at the inventory levels for Prince William County

Prince William County Virginia MLS Housing Inventory

Do you dispute the #'s?

My only question is there could be a blip here and there, but only time will tell if the market you're in really picks up and inventory significantly drops over time.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by DavidS827

We also have a huge problem with the inventory being overstated here. Builders will leave their sold homes in the MLS to attract buyers. We also have a lot of people who have two homes on the market and when one sells, two homes come off, as they will just move into the one that doesn't sell. Then there are the countless number of agents that list the same home twice. Sometimes it's b/c the town that the home is in just isn't that well known (this happens more so in PW county as we are an outer suburc of DC) and sometimes it is listed with the wrong specs. For example, there are a ton of agents that list a house as being a 4BR and then relist the same house as a 5BR. They do this b/c there is a "bedroom" in the basement, but it doesn't meet county code, so it can't be counted. I actually just sold a house that was listed as a 5BR, but legally is only 4.

The misinformation has become so bad that MRIS has imposed $1,000 fines for agents that violate the rules and will actually suspend their access if they repeat it.

That might happen in certain cases. However, these levels don't count FSBO and those that are not listed on MLS. How about foreclosures, those are not listed either. See what I mean?

Also, buyers are harder to come by because of the tightening standards.

My point is most inventory levels are alot higher than they were a year, 2 or more years ago and most likely will take a long time to come down to REASONABLE levels. Do you agree?

[DavidS827]

But you are still only looking at one county's stats. And that still doesn't account for the recent uptick in demand that I have seen and heard of from many of the local offices and lenders.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by DavidS827

But you are still only looking at one county's stats. And that still doesn't account for the recent uptick in demand that I have seen and heard of from many of the local offices and lenders.

As a realtor you know that "recent upticks" are meaningless. Long term trends are what counts.


I picked this data off the website you swear by. If you say so and don't think these numbers mean anything that's fine. You have over 5X the amount of listings today than you had two years ago. The numbers don't lie.


MAY '05


Alexandria City 224
Arlington County 265
Fairfax City 35
Fairfax County 1707
Falls Church City 18
Loudoun County 1014
Manassas City 57
Manassas Park City 22
Prince William County 826

AVAILABLE LISTINGS
3768 MAY '05




Alexandria City 838
Arlington County 889
Fairfax City 171
Fairfax County 7554
Falls Church City 49
Loudoun County 3470
Manassas City 584
Manassas Park City 240
Prince William County 5299

AVAIALBLE LISTINGS 19094 SEPT '07

[DavidS827]

You can't really compare those b/c in 05' things weren't staying on the market as long as they are today. There has also been an explosion of growth in the area so there are thousands upon thousands of houses that exist today that didn't in 05' What I would like to see would be the % of homes on the market to existing homes....I think that would be a more accurate indicator.

Look, i'm not saying that the market is great here, but I have noticed it getting better every month this year and the DOM has gone down every month and prices have increased in 6 of the 7 reported months (May was down just slightly).