When will the Real-Estate market turn around?

[DavidS827]

There are also less homes on the market today then there were a year ago.
Sept 2006 20457
Sept 2007 19419

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by DavidS827

You can't really compare those b/c in 05' things weren't staying on the market as long as they are today. There has also been an explosion of growth in the area so there are thousands upon thousands of houses that exist today that didn't in 05' What I would like to see would be the % of homes on the market to existing homes....I think that would be a more accurate indicator.

Look, i'm not saying that the market is great here, but I have noticed it getting better every month this year and the DOM has gone down every month and prices have increased in 6 of the 7 reported months (May was down just slightly).

Sure you can compare. The houses are staying on the market longer today because they aren't selling, plain and simple. Ask anyone that.

What are your home "sales" YOY for these markets. That is the key factor along w/inventory.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by DavidS827

There are also less homes on the market today then there were a year ago.
Sept 2006 20457
Sept 2007 19419

Are you saying the market is better than it was last year?

Probably not, correct?

Bottom line is that you still have a glut of inventory out there and until it SIGNIFICANTLY drops over the long term, your market will continue to suffer.

The indicators are no different than anywhere else unfortunately.

[DavidS827]

There is no doubt the market is better here now than it was a year ago and I believe it will just continue to get better. Will it happen over night? Not a chance. It will, and has, gotten better though. If it's not getting better then how do you explain the fact that our DOm has gone down each month and our prices have gone up?

...by the way, the site you are referencing is just some realtor's site and not our MLS system. I'm sure their data is probably pretty accurate, but it's not the true source of the data.

[Delbertcarr]

Here in the White Mountains of Arizona the market does appear to be getting a little better but many of the people selling are having to drop the price by 15% but it wont be that way for long. I would say our market here will pick up hot and heavy after this winter.

[dlh891]

Originally Posted by Roselvr

If the agents want to list your house, why not put it on the market to see if they can really sell it? Our house should have been snapped up pretty quick, but here it sits after 3 months. We just got a new agent, so hopefully that will help.

Anyway, I might have gone FSBO also but am not sure if I can deal with showings & stuff with my bad back. I'd be afraid to do this on my own during the week.

If we did FSBO, we could lower the price by the commission amount and probably sell tomorrow.

That's absurd. I have no desire to sell that house, I already sold what I wanted to. I do not need to add to the homes on the market to make a point. I'm sure you don't want any more competition than you already have.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by Delbertcarr

Here in the White Mountains of Arizona the market does appear to be getting a little better but many of the people selling are having to drop the price by 15% but it wont be that way for long. I would say our market here will pick up hot and heavy after this winter.

You say the market is getting better, but then you say many people selling are having to drop the price by 15%....huh?

Sounds like you have a lousy market like everywhere else.

Unfortunatley, no one's crystal ball is clear enough to know what will happen in the spring...again, very tough road ahead for sellers if you have a glut of inventory.

[DataMiner]

Originally Posted by DavidS827

There is no doubt the market is better here now than it was a year ago and I believe it will just continue to get better. Will it happen over night? Not a chance. It will, and has, gotten better though. If it's not getting better then how do you explain the fact that our DOm has gone down each month and our prices have gone up?

...by the way, the site you are referencing is just some realtor's site and not our MLS system. I'm sure their data is probably pretty accurate, but it's not the true source of the data.

That "some realtor" DOES extract from the MLS on a DAILY basis. The numbers and trends are real. Daily data collection started 12/13/2006 for Prince William so we cannot see YOY. New construction is removed since it is so unreliable. Data includes SF, TH and condos. Similar data has ben mined for Fairfax and Loudoun starting over a year ago.

More charting is created using the MONTHLY, public MLS data and shows trends for the last 72 months. Unfortunately there has not been time to do the same for Prince William.

Enjoy.

[magellan]

Originally Posted by DavidS827

There are also less homes on the market today then there were a year ago.
Sept 2006 20457
Sept 2007 19419

So according to that and the data that CouponJack posted, at a decrease in inventory of 1000 homes/year, it will be 15 years before you get back to 05 inventory levels of 3768. Did you check off 2022 on the poll? J/K, that one's not available. Plus, job growth is strong in Phoenix and South Florida, but ask them how their housing markets are doing. Job growth doesn't mean much to the housing market if the disparity between average income of those new jobs and the cost of housing is huge.

This came out yesterday:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/08/business/08lend.html

with this being the most shocking:

In late August, Countrywide was shut out of the market for short-term debt by an expanding credit crisis. It was forced to tap its $11.5 billion credit line to maintain liquidity. And until Bank of America stepped in to buy a $2 billion stake, Countrywide’s ability to remain a going concern was in question.

[baystater]

As for the nation as I really don't know when it will make a comeback. There are so many variables to individual area that it's impossible to guess the nation as a whole.
I going to guess that my home state of MA. will bottom out late 2009 -2010 and will recover by 2012. Will have to see how stubborn New Englanders can be. And they can be quite stubborn. Also another state I've been watch alot MI. Certain parts of this state are doing well believe Magellan can attest to this. But as for a lot of the state especially the south east part I don't see a bottom for a while guessing about 2012 at least. That being said as a economic contrarian, I think MI going to be a great investment or home buying area in two years for those who are willing to take risk. Actually I'm think the similar things for OH., South WV. and western PA. and NY.
Been also Observing Gulf Coast of Texas from Port Arthur to Brownsville. Don't see much of a drop off in prices or significant foreclosures there. Think it's still a good buy for investors or retirees. Though I don't have any inside baseball on it.
One last thing. Getting the word from My sister in Miami and friend in Tampa that at least in those areas. This word would sum it up. TOAST!