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Old 06-28-2012, 11:01 AM
Status: "October is the eighth month" (set 20 days ago)
 
Location: Just south of Denver since 1989
10,678 posts, read 28,495,910 times
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http://www.realtor.org/sites/default...2012-05-30.pdf
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Old 06-28-2012, 02:20 PM
 
2,618 posts, read 4,104,712 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2bindenver View Post
Thanks. Do they publish the assumptions that go into the forecasts (aside from the forecasted unemployment, inflation...)?
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Old 06-28-2012, 02:58 PM
 
Location: Mokelumne Hill, CA & El Pescadero, BCS MX.
6,958 posts, read 18,535,708 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blazerj View Post
Thanks. Do they publish the assumptions that go into the forecasts (aside from the forecasted unemployment, inflation...)?
No, it's just Larry Yun's SWAG (Sophisticated Wild A ss Guess)
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Old 06-29-2012, 05:58 PM
 
491 posts, read 1,973,094 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DMenscha View Post
No, it's just Larry Yun's SWAG (Sophisticated Wild A ss Guess)
Heh! And he's been so spot-on in the past - not!
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Old 06-30-2012, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Union County
5,702 posts, read 8,137,724 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DMenscha View Post
No, it's just Larry Yun's SWAG (Sophisticated Wild A ss Guess)
Scientific... not sophisticated. Not that it makes Larry any better at this stuff. lol
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Old 06-30-2012, 10:40 AM
 
Location: US Empire, Pac NW
5,008 posts, read 10,456,149 times
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I think anyone with a reasonable outlook on the economy and the country's direction will tell you that it won't be for another 5 years or so before we're healthy again.

There's a lot of home-locked people there - those who bought into the hype and seriously thought they would be PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!!!! So they can't afford to sell until their inflated loans can be paid off. Or they go into foreclosure or short sale. There's I'd say two years of inventory just in those alone.

This will cause upward pressure in prices, which gives an artificial view of demand, which will cause more homes to be built. This will lead to another bubble, and a collapse, again, in about 7-10 years, once prices "recover" to 00's bubble years, and suddenly the market will be awash in inventory.
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Old 06-30-2012, 01:42 PM
 
Location: Illinois
718 posts, read 1,750,042 times
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No one knows, especially NAR.....the opinions are ....and everyone has one.
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Old 06-30-2012, 06:07 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 5,904,462 times
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All I know is inventory is very low for homes in Central Florida especially in desirable neighborhoods in the 400-700k range these days.

If home is price correctly it will move. Factor in very few high quality rentals in good schools in the $2500-3500.

This seems to be a very strong spring/summer selling season.

Our neighbor sold their home in 2 days, all cash buyer. Full price $600k

We decided to "test the market" after our neighbor sold theirs. On market for 22 days and now under contract. So we were surprise also. Got 97% of list price in the mid 400s.

2 other homes in our neighborhood were also on market less than 30 days. All of us close end of July/early August. both these homes are also under contract for more than 95% of list price without any price reductions.

This is central florida (one of hardest areas hit). We are down 40% off early 2006 peak prices and basically down to early 2003 pricing in our neighborhood. So I am taking a big lost even after buying in 2009.

But it seems like the bleeding as stopped. Do I think home prices are going to go up? Probably not. But prices look like they will be at least stable. Most of distressed sellers have moved out in 2010-2011.

Sure there are a few shadow inventory foreclosures even in my neighborhood. We know there are 2 in some state of pre foreclosure.

But the worst is behind us. Rents are crazy here too. Any quality single family home $2500-3500 is being rented out in less than one week also.

Why did I sell? Partly cause I saw my neighbor sell so fast along with low inventory. But also cause I plan on leaving the area in the next 7-12 months. So I am going to rent and than leave the area in less than a year. We looked at 3 rentals in past week. All $3000-4000/month. Before we even had a chance to fill out application those homes were rented out. But foruntately my wife found rented just listed June 28th and we looked at it and said we would take it so we could have a place to live after selling our house so soon.
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Old 06-30-2012, 07:38 PM
 
2,618 posts, read 4,104,712 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eskercurve View Post
I think anyone with a reasonable outlook on the economy and the country's direction will tell you that it won't be for another 5 years or so before we're healthy again.

There's a lot of home-locked people there - those who bought into the hype and seriously thought they would be PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!!!! So they can't afford to sell until their inflated loans can be paid off. Or they go into foreclosure or short sale. There's I'd say two years of inventory just in those alone.

This will cause upward pressure in prices, which gives an artificial view of demand, which will cause more homes to be built. This will lead to another bubble, and a collapse, again, in about 7-10 years, once prices "recover" to 00's bubble years, and suddenly the market will be awash in inventory.
Agree, and factor in that interest rates are at an all time low, so when they rise, prices will decrease. I figure at least 10 years.
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Old 07-01-2012, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Columbia, MD
553 posts, read 1,474,675 times
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Larry doesn't get enough credit for maintaining his own job security by following the mushroom school of economics...keep realtors in the dark and keep feeding them chit.

It looks like nominal housing prices have bottomed. It also looks like US financial institutions have been working aggressively to build a moat capable of absorbing monstrous losses resulting from sovereign debt default globally, so the likelihood of catastrophic economic crises in the US have been postponed yet again.

But lordy...this makes a goldilocks forecast look downright bearish. There are, as ever, too many headwinds and now because of global sovereign risk, US debt is the least ugly girl at the bar, so dealing with our mess will undoubtedly be kicked down the road.

I think I said this before, but now's a great time to buy if you have job security, long term employment growth, and plan on staying put for a while.

But it's likely the housing market will keep getting whipsawed the way all asset classes are now that the financial oligarchs have lots of house money to play with. Housing looks great now but it probably won't next year when the US officially enters the next phase of this depression, with the US GDP growth contracting as our output gap grows and the hangover from a sitting president's election year spending binge over.

Everything remains as it has been since 2009: fragile with the appearance of growth resulting from global central banking intervention in every market, with the probability of complete collapse occurring once stagflation sends middle and lower class people into revolt.
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