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Old 07-10-2012, 02:24 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 5,917,984 times
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First of all, I know all real estate is "local".

But I am very familiar with both the Washington DC market (a supposedly "hot" market that withstood most of the recession) and Orlando Florida (one of the worst housing markets). So I have both ends of the spectrum covered.

We are selling our home in Florida (actually it's essentially a done deal...home was under contract in 21 days and appraisal and inspection are done, closing is July 30th). This was for a home in the mid 400s. Still taking another housing loss...but that's another matter to discuss.

What I've notice and our realtor told us is listings are down anywhere between 20-30% nationwide. Even foreclosure prices are up. But the total amount of homes for sale by bank owned is way down.

Add also rents are way up in many parts of the nation. My friend is renting a 2 bedroom apartment in Arlington (a closed in suburb next to Washington DC) for $2800. The same apartment I rented a long time ago for $1800 back in 2004. It's crazy rents up there.

So it seems like there is no where to hide with housing. Is this a "head fake" by the banks to manipulate inventory before the US election in the fall? Are sellers holding off putting their homes on the market? Are potential buyers all renting waiting for their opportunity? If this is all true (and it seems this way). Something has got to give.

Either we've reached the so called bottom or banks will flood the market after the general election?

What do you guys think?
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Old 07-10-2012, 02:35 PM
 
2,397 posts, read 4,892,459 times
Reputation: 4532
> banks will flood the market after the general election?

Umm, what exactly would be the motive for this conspiracy?
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Old 07-10-2012, 02:46 PM
 
577 posts, read 870,591 times
Reputation: 624
Quote:
Originally Posted by aneftp View Post
First of all, I know all real estate is "local".

But I am very familiar with both the Washington DC market (a supposedly "hot" market that withstood most of the recession) and Orlando Florida (one of the worst housing markets). So I have both ends of the spectrum covered.

We are selling our home in Florida (actually it's essentially a done deal...home was under contract in 21 days and appraisal and inspection are done, closing is July 30th). This was for a home in the mid 400s. Still taking another housing loss...but that's another matter to discuss.

What I've notice and our realtor told us is listings are down anywhere between 20-30% nationwide. Even foreclosure prices are up. But the total amount of homes for sale by bank owned is way down.

Add also rents are way up in many parts of the nation. My friend is renting a 2 bedroom apartment in Arlington (a closed in suburb next to Washington DC) for $2800. The same apartment I rented a long time ago for $1800 back in 2004. It's crazy rents up there.

So it seems like there is no where to hide with housing. Is this a "head fake" by the banks to manipulate inventory before the US election in the fall? Are sellers holding off putting their homes on the market? Are potential buyers all renting waiting for their opportunity? If this is all true (and it seems this way). Something has got to give.

Either we've reached the so called bottom or banks will flood the market after the general election?

What do you guys think?
Everything I've read seems to point to there being no real reason for inventories to be this low. The foreclosure backlog is still huge. I think (for the banks) this is more about constricting inventory for the summer selling season than anything else. I think the foreclosure inventory is going to eventually give.
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Old 07-10-2012, 02:49 PM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
26,938 posts, read 58,212,646 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aneftp View Post
Either we've reached the so called bottom or banks will flood the market after the general election?
What do you guys think?
Neither of those.

The banks learned that pushing the foreclosure process in general
and then releasing their inventory pays better when done in small amounts.
And buyers continue to be sch-mucks more concerned about financing than value.

The question is how long the banks can afford to hold their shadow inventory.
At 0% borrowing costs it may be a LONG time.
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Old 07-10-2012, 03:39 PM
 
Location: Columbia, SC
8,862 posts, read 17,493,686 times
Reputation: 6250
Inventory down, nice listings are going quickly.
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Old 07-10-2012, 03:42 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 5,917,984 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rational1 View Post
> banks will flood the market after the general election?

Umm, what exactly would be the motive for this conspiracy?
All I know is in my particular neighborhood (and because of Florida Sunshine laws), there are still at least 5 homes in some type of preforeclosure. This is in a 60 or so homes area I am examining.

We are very close with one of those pre foreclosures. They haven't paid their mortgage in close to 4 years (right before the 2008 crash). And their lawyer says they got probably another 12-18 months in the home.

And another property looks abandoned (these are 700-800K properties still...at peak this property was going for well over 1 million) Grass all dead, weeds. But nothing in the court system yet. So it's gotta take close to 12 months after someone abandon's the property for it to even hit the court system in Florida.

It's just very weird. Hardly any inventory (for sale or for rent). And rents have gone way up (in my desirable area cause of the school system).
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Old 07-10-2012, 04:38 PM
 
Location: Baltimore
1,759 posts, read 4,276,098 times
Reputation: 1192
I track sales data in Baltimore and our foreclosure sales have gone way down since their peak in 2011.



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Old 07-10-2012, 05:26 PM
 
Location: Salem, OR
13,757 posts, read 31,670,380 times
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I can only speak for my area. There is no bank conspiracy out here due to elections.

Out here 95% of MERS foreclosures were pulled off the auction blocks while the supreme court rules on the legitimacy of MERS as a beneficiary. About 50% of potential foreclosures are MERS so they are just hanging out there off the market, or listed as short sales. Banks are pricing homes at market value out here and working down from there. I've seen banks stage homes, repaint, new carpet, counters, flooring, etc. Essentially they are getting it that most buyers don't want to do those things. Those that do want a steep discount. Better to spend $5k upfront than lose $20k to the bargain buyer.

Also, the economy has improved slightly. We are seeing less layoffs which means less sellers forced to move. Sellers have generally gotten it and are staying off the market if they don't have to sell. These actions have all reduced inventory in my area. We are almost at a neutral market here.

Rents are up because so many people were pulled out of the home buying market that are now renters so landlords can command more. There is a lot of demand and supply is limited. Hence, increased rents.
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Old 07-10-2012, 05:38 PM
 
Location: Mokelumne Hill, CA & El Pescadero, BCS MX.
6,958 posts, read 18,589,873 times
Reputation: 6361
Quote:
Originally Posted by aneftp View Post
All I know is in my particular neighborhood (and because of Florida Sunshine laws), there are still at least 5 homes in some type of preforeclosure. This is in a 60 or so homes area I am examining.

We are very close with one of those pre foreclosures. They haven't paid their mortgage in close to 4 years (right before the 2008 crash). And their lawyer says they got probably another 12-18 months in the home.

And another property looks abandoned (these are 700-800K properties still...at peak this property was going for well over 1 million) Grass all dead, weeds. But nothing in the court system yet. So it's gotta take close to 12 months after someone abandon's the property for it to even hit the court system in Florida.

It's just very weird. Hardly any inventory (for sale or for rent). And rents have gone way up (in my desirable area cause of the school system).
I think a large part of the "shadow" inventory is more that the borrower has filed for BK, so the banks don't own it yet, and unless the owner is interested in a short sale, isn't going to list it.

As for the "pre-foreclosure" lists, they are hugely unreliable in terms of accuracy.
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Old 07-10-2012, 09:12 PM
 
3,784 posts, read 7,195,477 times
Reputation: 4134
A lot of people want to sell but can't because they owe too much.
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