Raleigh, Raleigh, housing market booming or bursting, you be the judge?

[KCfromNC]

According to the MLS stats, sales have been flat YoY for the past year or so, trending to down about 10% year over year during the past few months. Inventory has been increasing over the same period, and is now up 15-20% compared to the same time last year. Average prices are up several % in real dollars, though. It's not CA, FL, AZ, or MA, the sky isn't falling yet by any stretch, but the data from the summer months is a bit worrisome. But I'd need more than a few bad months to get seriously upset.

Subjectively, I worry that the $500K+ neighborhoods aren't going to have anyone that can afford them since the transplants that were driving that market can't transplant until they sell their house in their own (dead or dying) local real estate market. And the national builders that are really hurting in other markets may take semi-drastic measures to get what they can here since we still have a functioning RE market - you know, one with both sellers and buyers

Not sure what button I should push for this response

[magellan]

Originally Posted by North_Raleigh_Guy

Here's a pic of the downtown RBC Plaza currently under construction in Raleigh. All of the condo units are already sold out.

FYI: "Sold Out" on a high-rise project is very subjective, and is no indication of a solid housing market. How many are speculative buyers? How many are investors/flippers? Were any bought by international condominium "buyers clubs"? How many people are actually going to call the place "home" when it opens? How many plan to rent their unit out?

If we have speculators and condo flippers here in Grand Rapids, you've got to have them in Raleigh.

[North_Raleigh_Guy]

Originally Posted by magellan

FYI: "Sold Out" on a high-rise project is very subjective, and is no indication of a solid housing market. How many are speculative buyers? How many are investors/flippers? Were any bought by international condominium "buyers clubs"? How many people are actually going to call the place "home" when it opens? How many plan to rent their unit out?

If we have speculators and condo flippers here in Grand Rapids, you've got to have them in Raleigh.

Good point. I wonder the same thing. I'm not all "RaRa" about condos, but was just making the point that maybe the previous poster could shed soem light or insight as to why he/she thinks this market will bust. It's easy to make bold statements but is more useful to have some reasoning to back it up. I am actually going to swing by an event for another condo project tomorrow to see what kind of people are showing up to sign on the dotted line. Should be interesting.

~ NRG

[ReefAreCoolToo]

Originally Posted by North_Raleigh_Guy

Good point. I wonder the same thing. I'm not all "RaRa" about condos, but was just making the point that maybe the previous poster could shed soem light or insight as to why he/she thinks this market will bust. It's easy to make bold statements but is more useful to have some reasoning to back it up. I am actually going to swing by an event for another condo project tomorrow to see what kind of people are showing up to sign on the dotted line. Should be interesting.

~ NRG

Oh well....I used to live by Peace St and Boylan Ave. They built the condo by the area and the other one Boylan Height.
the new condo by Boylan & Peace looks half empty since it open up. The other place at Boylan Height, 1/3 of them are actually buyers that live in there but most of it are rentals...my brother in laws lives in there for a year. Over the course of the year, he saw people moving in and out constantly

[magellan]

Originally Posted by North_Raleigh_Guy

Good point. I wonder the same thing. I'm not all "RaRa" about condos, but was just making the point that maybe the previous poster could shed soem light or insight as to why he/she thinks this market will bust. It's easy to make bold statements but is more useful to have some reasoning to back it up. I am actually going to swing by an event for another condo project tomorrow to see what kind of people are showing up to sign on the dotted line. Should be interesting.

~ NRG

It's probably somewhere in the middle: not as hot as developers claim and not as cold as critics claim.