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"nobody in the MSM bothered to check the numbers or question the NAR spin. Nope, they just reported sales down 8%, and made that sound bad enough, but if they had reported the REAL numbers - down 29% versus last month and 23% versus last year, now THAT would have really freaked people out. Of course, the MSM is too stupid to realize that the NAR goes with the "annualized" number because that takes longer to crash.
Do your own search - good luck finding any report that shows the -23% or -29% true numbers. And why won't you find it? Because the NAR didn't report it in their PR, so nothing to copy and paste for the lazy MSM.
Here's the simple numbers from the NAR:
Sept 2007: 409,000 sales (down 29% versus last month, down 23% versus last year)
August 2007: 575,000 sales
Sept 2006: 529,000 sales
Some of these bloggers (not you midlander) need to get over themselves. I detest spin as much as the next guy, but he didn't actually read the report that he is railing about. That 8% drop in September is the "seasonally adjusted" annual sales volume number decrease. Because there are drops and spikes from month to month for any year for real estate transactions, they are "seasonally adjusted" to provide a more accurate picture of where the number is trending.
A more interesting set of charts are these going all the way back to 2004 (seasonally adjusted). It obviously shows quite a drop from the peak in June 2005:
US Existing Home Sales-STATS (http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=a3c3a92e-ed09-4a00-979c-0c744af820b1 - broken link)
All real estate is local and what is published should be looked as an indicator only. If you are interested in buying and/or selling a home then it is best to look at the specific data related to the neighborhood you want to live in.
All real estate is local and what is published should be looked as an indicator only. If you are interested in buying and/or selling a home then it is best to look at the specific data related to the neighborhood you want to live in.
Truer words were never ...typed.
An awful lot of people discuss "The Real Estate Market" as though the national market in the aggregate had a great deal of meaning for most people. Which is a bit puzzling, because few of us own RE as an investment which is effected by the national market in the aggregate. I'm simply suggesting that for individuals, the specific location of one's properties is what counts - not "The Real Estate Market" as a national thing.
Now, if I were an institutional investor, not knowing exactly how much of my portfolio was dependent on risky mortgage paper, on which not nearly enough due dilligence was performed, that would be another story entirely...
Some of these bloggers (not you midlander) need to get over themselves. I detest spin as much as the next guy, but he didn't actually read the report that he is railing about. That 8% drop in September is the "seasonally adjusted" annual sales volume number decrease. Because there are drops and spikes from month to month for any year for real estate transactions, they are "seasonally adjusted" to provide a more accurate picture of where the number is trending.
A more interesting set of charts are these going all the way back to 2004 (seasonally adjusted). It obviously shows quite a drop from the peak in June 2005:
US Existing Home Sales-STATS (http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=a3c3a92e-ed09-4a00-979c-0c744af820b1 - broken link)
Again - where's the specificity in the "blogger's" writing? It doesn't take a lot of thought to blast "the MSM". Calling "the MSM" "lazy" is not only obviously true (as far as it goes), but completely ignores the thoroughly reported and researched stories which have been predicting just what we're seeing now...for several years. The "blogger" might want to pick up a Wall Street Journal or a New York Times.
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kturbe
All real estate is local and what is published should be looked as an indicator only. If you are interested in buying and/or selling a home then it is best to look at the specific data related to the neighborhood you want to live in.
You are right if your talking a rational person.
Unfortunately people have not been rational about real estate since 2001. Though I believe some areas will not be effected by the national housing slump. I also believe that most local areas in the end will be by the mentality of "I don't want to catch a falling knife."
Basically it a roller coaster. We had raise really high like toping a roller coaster and now it time to take that deep ride down with a few twist and turn thrown in just to make things interesting.
So strap in it going to be a fun ride for the next couple of years.
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