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Old 08-05-2013, 04:04 AM
 
16,438 posts, read 18,146,830 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin B67 View Post

The housing market will crash again and the stock market will crash again. You will save yourself a lot of future heartache if you rent for the next few years and wait for housing to crash and take your money out of the stock market before it crashes also. Save your cash for the crash!
Agree.
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Old 08-05-2013, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Florida -
7,924 posts, read 9,513,994 times
Reputation: 13948
Quote:
Originally Posted by EngGirl View Post
Honestly I don't know for how long banks could keep all there foreclosures off the market. Sooner or later vacant (read houses with no AC - no heater) will be in the condition noone will want to buy it. Not sure about other places, but vacant house being without AC for over a year is at VERY high risk of mold INSIDE the walls...

I kept track of houses like that in our neighborhood and all foreclosed houses were bought by investors... and rented out shortly... Basically, people who are renting are living with mold... Mold will not dissapear by itself... and it's hard to treat when it's hidden behind drywalls.

So, all these vacant houses banks are keeping are going down the hill. I guess it just the matter of time when somebody will be sued for mold issues. I found it interesting real estate agent don't like to mention or even talk about this issue and standard home inspection cannot catch these issues.
More people are looking into new construction for that reason, so foreclosed vacant homes is nothing for banks to count for.
IMO of course...

The reason we see so many buyers is because many people who went through short sale/ foreclosure are not back to the game... these people have cash for large downpayment (hell yeh they were living rent free for years) which is enough to get a new mortgage... I would say there will be many buyers for another 3-4 years, which means prices and rate will be going up until the history will repeat itself.
I've wondered about the inventory of 'defaulted mortgages', and concluded that 'some ongoing maintenance and upkeep is better than none.' Thus, banks (who do not want their books clogged with deteriorating, foreclosed properties) have not more aggressively initiated wholesale foreclosure actions against people who are living for YEARS in homes -- where they are no longer paying the mortgage!

As the market begins to recover and 'defaulted properties' again approach the loan value, the banks will accelerate their foreclosure actions. This flow of foreclosed properties into the market, will likely serve to limit unrestrained price increases (circa 2003-2008) ... for several years to come.
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Old 08-05-2013, 01:27 PM
 
5,076 posts, read 7,677,315 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jghorton View Post
I've wondered about the inventory of 'defaulted mortgages', and concluded that 'some ongoing maintenance and upkeep is better than none.' Thus, banks (who do not want their books clogged with deteriorating, foreclosed properties) have not more aggressively initiated wholesale foreclosure actions against people who are living for YEARS in homes -- where they are no longer paying the mortgage!

As the market begins to recover and 'defaulted properties' again approach the loan value, the banks will accelerate their foreclosure actions. This flow of foreclosed properties into the market, will likely serve to limit unrestrained price increases (circa 2003-2008) ... for several years to come.
Paradoxically, foreclosing on occupied homes may actually reduce the number of housing units available, and the net increase in available housing units will be 0 even after the house is resold.

Between the time the foreclosed owner leaves and the new owner moves in, the house is unavailable for occupancy. During that time, the previous owner needs to find another place to live - most likely a rental.
Available units for sale or rent actually dropped as a direct result of the foreclosure.

This is a bit different situation than we saw in 2007-2009 when there were millions of excess vacant units.
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Old 08-06-2013, 08:28 AM
 
Location: Florida -
7,924 posts, read 9,513,994 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkarch View Post
Paradoxically, foreclosing on occupied homes may actually reduce the number of housing units available, and the net increase in available housing units will be 0 even after the house is resold.

Between the time the foreclosed owner leaves and the new owner moves in, the house is unavailable for occupancy. During that time, the previous owner needs to find another place to live - most likely a rental.
Available units for sale or rent actually dropped as a direct result of the foreclosure.

This is a bit different situation than we saw in 2007-2009 when there were millions of excess vacant units.
Excellent point! --- But, doesn't it presume that banks will only foreclose and list the 'shadow inventory' of homes on their books - for sale on the market in a direct, one-to-one ratio to actual buyers?

Suppose there are 10 homes for sale in a hypothetical 'market' and 15 potential buyers for those homes. That would certainly drive the competitive price of those 10 homes up. Upon seeing this price increase, a dozen banks in the area decide to cautiously release a modest 3 foreclosed homes each into the local RE market. Suddenly, there are 36 new foreclosed homes on the market, plus the 10 already there ... a total of 46 homes for sale to the same 15 buyers. The market has quickly shifted from a 33% shortage, to a 300% excess, which will certainly throw a wet-towel on the previously hot market. (Note: IMO, the RE Market is driven more by the available inventory for 'sale' ... than by the direct occupancy/vacancy ratio)
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Old 08-06-2013, 09:27 AM
 
5,076 posts, read 7,677,315 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jghorton View Post
Excellent point! --- But, doesn't it presume that banks will only foreclose and list the 'shadow inventory' of homes on their books - for sale on the market in a direct, one-to-one ratio to actual buyers?

Suppose there are 10 homes for sale in a hypothetical 'market' and 15 potential buyers for those homes. That would certainly drive the competitive price of those 10 homes up. Upon seeing this price increase, a dozen banks in the area decide to cautiously release a modest 3 foreclosed homes each into the local RE market. Suddenly, there are 36 new foreclosed homes on the market, plus the 10 already there ... a total of 46 homes for sale to the same 15 buyers. The market has quickly shifted from a 33% shortage, to a 300% excess, which will certainly throw a wet-towel on the previously hot market. (Note: IMO, the RE Market is driven more by the available inventory for 'sale' ... than by the direct occupancy/vacancy ratio)
Yes, but you'd also need a market dislocation keeping investors from purchasing the homes as rentals when there are 46 potential tenants needing a place to live.

My other assumption is that most of the people being foreclosed at this point can afford to rent, but can't or won't pay their gigantic bubble-era mortgage.
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Old 08-07-2013, 09:48 AM
 
155 posts, read 258,794 times
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Exclamation Must be on point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin B67 View Post
The basic fact is that home prices have nowhere to go but down.

We are in a deflationary period that the fed is trying to money print away. Deflation is actually a good thing for the people. The banks want to scare you with inflation talk into acting now…buy now! Things become more affordable when deflation is allowed to happen. The housing boom will be over soon and we will once again be fooled by these banks…it hurts to watch this again.

Meanwhile the banks are in a desperate bid to pump and dump this market. They love all the cash buyers and the government loans. They are getting their bad loans off their books onto yours. They are not making loans for the common man, they are using your bank deposits to gamble with your money.

They want you to come play at their field…the stock market and housing market. They want you to invest in their game…the only game in town so they can play you! You think you are playing with them but the game is rigged and they will let you know when they are done with you…when they have all your money. You think you are doing great in the market now wait till they pull the plug and you are back at 2008-2009 or worse levels. You gotta play with them but they know you never quit at the right time…they got us where they want us…we are pawns in their game.

When interest rates are on the downtrend housing is very profitable and is a very good investment. Interest rates have bottomed and have no where else to go but up and that makes housing a negative investment. Labor participation rate and stagnant wage growth will further depress this market.

It is hard to go against the crowd and not buy a house. The housing market will crash again and the stock market will crash again. You will save yourself a lot of future heartache if you rent for the next few years and wait for housing to crash and take your money out of the stock market before it crashes also. Save your cash for the crash!
What do people think about all the mess in D.C.? No matter who "wins" in the negotiations, the country seems to be going down the wrong path with economic disaster.

How does this looming economic disaster affect housing?
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Old 08-07-2013, 04:23 PM
 
Location: South Austin
202 posts, read 275,772 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbless View Post
Can someone give information about how the Real Estate Market will perform in the next several months?
Given the rather primitive state of economic modeling, predictions about the economy tend to be little more than guesses.

That being said, I would say your best resources would be Bill McBride at Calculated Risk, as well as James Hamilton and Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser.
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Old 08-07-2013, 06:15 PM
 
Location: Barrington
39,839 posts, read 30,404,495 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rakin View Post
Home prices here are up 12-23%.
Several major corporations are relocating to DFW.
Immigration to North TX continues from other states.
Builders are selling faster than they can build.
There is a shortage of home inventory in many areas.

With all the above, I predict the DFW market will stay extremely strong for the next few years.
All real estate is local, sometimes down to the neighborhood or even block level.
It looks like the OP is in the DFW area, so ^ is likely the best assessment of this particular local market.
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Old 08-07-2013, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Barrington
39,839 posts, read 30,404,495 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EngGirl View Post

I kept track of houses like that in our neighborhood and all foreclosed houses were bought by investors... and rented out shortly... Basically, people who are renting are living with mold... Mold will not dissapear by itself... and it's hard to treat when it's hidden behind drywalls.

So, all these vacant houses banks are keeping are going down the hill. I guess it just the matter of time when somebody will be sued for mold issues.
How do you know all these homes have old behind the drywall?

To the best of my knowledge banks, estates and relo companies are not required to disclose anything and they do not. Buyers acknowledge this as a part of the sale.

Investors do not occupy the property. Anyone can sue anyone about anything. Proving an investor knew of mold and failed to disclose can be challenging.
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Old 08-07-2013, 06:33 PM
 
Location: Barrington
39,839 posts, read 30,404,495 times
Reputation: 13482
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarmelaHagan View Post
Real Estate will continue to regain value. Inventory is low, homeowners are now selling for a profit and getting mulitple offers. Rates are still at an all time low but they are going up.
Next year this time? - rates 5 1/2 - 6% and a sellers market.
You are speaking for your local market, Staten Island. Mileage varies all over the U.S.

No two professional economists can agree on where rates will be in one year.

It makes me queasy when real estate agents/brokers speculate on economic matters as if they were factual.

Last time I checked, a real estate agent/broker's job was to help their clients achieve their real estate objectives, not speculate about economic/market conditions 12 months into the future.
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