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Old 05-26-2017, 06:21 PM
 
Location: Podunk, IA
3,055 posts, read 1,401,256 times
Reputation: 3137

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Why would anyone take a Zestimate seriously?
It's likely as worthless as KBB or TrueCar!
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Old 05-26-2017, 10:48 PM
 
6,302 posts, read 1,927,115 times
Reputation: 4863
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYCresident2014 View Post
What a strange tone by the OP. Are you hinting that anytime a person or a company attempts to improve something, that it is an admission that what they already had was "crap"?

Imagine where we would be as a society if everyone in history took that approach to improving on things. It wouldn't be pretty- very little innovation and very little change.
No kidding. My house has been appraised three times in the past 10 years (2007, 2001, 2015), and every time the Zestimate at the time was within 2% of the appraised value.
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Old 05-27-2017, 06:40 AM
 
3,825 posts, read 3,018,338 times
Reputation: 12376
Quote:
Originally Posted by Surbiton View Post
So finally this week Zillow admits that Zestimates are inaccurate as they launch a $1.2 million competition to see who will come up with a better AVM algorithm in the next six months. But as is usual with Zillow its all about self promotion and yet another gimmick to attract users to its website as they discover that constant TV advertising to attract audience is expensive and soon as the TV Ads end the audience plummets. When they paid Stan Humphries,the Zestimate algorithm architect $7.7m in 2015 its loose change for Zillow to try and find someone who can do the job better.

Zillow announced Wednesday that it was launching a competition aimed at awarding $1 million to the first person or team who could most improve the Zestimate algorithm. “Zillow Prize” hopes to attract data scientists everywhere to try their hand at tinkering with “one of the highest-profile, most accurate and sophisticated examples of machine learning.”

https://www.geekwire.com/2017/zillow...thm-zestimate/

https://www.kaggle.com/c/zillow-prize-1/leaderboard
I dont know if you finished high school or not, but you may need to somehow improve your reading comprehension. I dont think a 5% margin of error is considered crap by any means. Not to mention the fact that a large percentage of homes dont sell anywhere near the original listing price, so a 5% margin of error seems perfectly reasonable. Prices arent set in stone, they are fluid.

I take the million dollar offer to mean that they really dont think their algorithm can be improved.
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Old 05-27-2017, 07:32 AM
 
Location: Cary, NC
32,224 posts, read 56,399,074 times
Reputation: 30974
Quote:
Originally Posted by carnivalday View Post
I dont know if you finished high school or not, but you may need to somehow improve your reading comprehension. I dont think a 5% margin of error is considered crap by any means. Not to mention the fact that a large percentage of homes dont sell anywhere near the original listing price, so a 5% margin of error seems perfectly reasonable. Prices arent set in stone, they are fluid.

I take the million dollar offer to mean that they really dont think their algorithm can be improved.


5% margin of error refers to about 54% of homes. 5% is the MEDIAN Error. Half are less while half are more.
IOW, nearly half are not within the sloppy 5% range of their opinion of value.
As noted by many, error can be extreme outside that 5% median.

https://www.zillow.com/zestimate/#acc

People too often confuse appraisal, which is an opinion of market value, with pricing, which is strategic and marketing.
Remember, the Zestimate is basically more of an appraisal, in their words, "Zillow's estimate of market value."
Pricing is not the same activity as appraisal. Pricing and providing a CMA, are strategic.
Appraisal requires more accuracy, ergo the need for a license to appraise.
Read the last two pages:
https://www.ncrec.gov/pdfs/studyguide.pdf
I am not allowed to offer "market value" or "worth." I can only offer a likely sales price to a consumer.
It is North Carolina-specific, but I think is common to many other states. Illinois is home of a couple of lawsuits regarding appraisal via AVM by Zillow.

The $1 million may indicate many things.
IF it is an indication that they believe the Zestimate cannot be improved, they should withdraw all Zestimates as a show of good faith to the public.
I think it is a play for improvement, but also a splash for news. They get more than $1 million worth of publicity for the gambit.


Surbiton?
He reads and researches extremely well, and is the CD specialist in Zillow. Yes, he draws conclusions. He also supports them very well with documentation and interpretation.
I respect his input.



"Currently there are no federal laws or regulations regarding AVMs."

https://www.ncrec.gov/pdfs/avm.pdf That needs to be fixed. AVMs for profit are hurting consumers.

Last edited by MikeJaquish; 05-27-2017 at 07:49 AM..
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Old Today, 12:39 PM
 
164 posts, read 659,507 times
Reputation: 153
Default Zillow Announces the Winners of $1M Competition to Improve Zestimate Accuracy

Interesting that Zillow repeat the same error they made when launching Zestimates in 2006 of not having any Real Estate experience on the winning team of the competition to improve Zestimate accuracy. The winning team was "Team ChaNJestimate -- created an algorithm that's 13 percent more accurate than Zillow's current model. The team utilized deep neural networks to directly estimate home values and remove outlier data points that fed into their algorithm. They also leveraged external variables that factor into a home's estimated value, like data on rental rates, commute times, and home prices, along with contextual information such as road noise, to bolster the model's precision.

Seems to be more of a publicity stunt blowing $1.15M to help bolster Zillows flagging stock price which is down 50% in last 6 months. But I would say that wouldn't I

https://www.zdnet.com/article/zillow...ate-algorithm/
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