U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Real Estate
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 02-13-2018, 10:30 AM
 
203 posts, read 77,946 times
Reputation: 381

Advertisements

The large baby boomer population are becoming empty nesters and have no need for their 5BD/3500+sqft house anymore. They are downsizing and moving into convenient condos/townhomes in the city.

Economy is doing well, lots of jobs in large cities that are attracting millenials who wish to purchase their first home. Being young and having no need for a large space, they are unwilling to deal with a long commute and have no need for a 5BD/3500+sqft house. They also wish to purchase convenient condos/townhomes in the city.

House prices won't dip appreciably anytime soon unless people start losing jobs in their respective markets. Prices might stabilize as interest rates increase (mortgages cost more so less people able to afford). However, higher interest rates might depress demand for more expensive homes but INCREASE demand for less expensive properties, since that's all that people can afford.

Banking on a ~25% dip in value in popular cities is a fool's errand. You'll be waiting forever.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 02-13-2018, 10:50 AM
 
Location: California
1,134 posts, read 961,685 times
Reputation: 2056
Quote:
Originally Posted by stoxdiamond View Post
The large baby boomer population are becoming empty nesters and have no need for their 5BD/3500+sqft house anymore. They are downsizing and moving into convenient condos/townhomes in the city.

Economy is doing well, lots of jobs in large cities that are attracting millenials who wish to purchase their first home. Being young and having no need for a large space, they are unwilling to deal with a long commute and have no need for a 5BD/3500+sqft house. They also wish to purchase convenient condos/townhomes in the city.

House prices won't dip appreciably anytime soon unless people start losing jobs in their respective markets. Prices might stabilize as interest rates increase (mortgages cost more so less people able to afford). However, higher interest rates might depress demand for more expensive homes but INCREASE demand for less expensive properties, since that's all that people can afford.

Banking on a ~25% dip in value in popular cities is a fool's errand. You'll be waiting forever.
Why do you assume I am waiting?

Last edited by HappyinCali; 02-13-2018 at 11:04 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-13-2018, 02:10 PM
 
Location: Boise, ID
8,011 posts, read 22,505,069 times
Reputation: 9212
I don't see it happening in my area any time soon. So many builders went out of business in the last bust that we are experiencing a fairly significant housing shortage. At some point, builders will get back in it and bring us back in balance (and very likely eventually over-saturate the market), but in the meantime, prices are going up because there isn't enough housing to go around.

In the meantime, there are a fair number of apartment buildings going up, so at least people can find a place to rent and live here in the meantime while there are not enough houses to buy, if they are willing to live in an apartment complex.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-13-2018, 02:11 PM
 
Location: Boise, ID
8,011 posts, read 22,505,069 times
Reputation: 9212
Quote:
Originally Posted by stoxdiamond View Post
The large baby boomer population are becoming empty nesters and have no need for their 5BD/3500+sqft house anymore. They are downsizing and moving into convenient condos/townhomes in the city.
Ha, my baby boomer parents downsized to a 3300 square foot house.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-13-2018, 02:48 PM
 
Location: San Diego
32,798 posts, read 30,034,103 times
Reputation: 17687
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lacerta View Post
I don't see it happening in my area any time soon. So many builders went out of business in the last bust that we are experiencing a fairly significant housing shortage. At some point, builders will get back in it and bring us back in balance (and very likely eventually over-saturate the market), but in the meantime, prices are going up because there isn't enough housing to go around.

In the meantime, there are a fair number of apartment buildings going up, so at least people can find a place to rent and live here in the meantime while there are not enough houses to buy, if they are willing to live in an apartment complex.
The same here in San Diego. That and most builders are doing expensive remodels and not focused on new housing. The new housing we are seeing is all luxury condos and will be quite a while before it is online.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-13-2018, 03:41 PM
 
Location: Salem, OR
13,740 posts, read 31,556,293 times
Reputation: 12105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lacerta View Post
I don't see it happening in my area any time soon. So many builders went out of business in the last bust that we are experiencing a fairly significant housing shortage. At some point, builders will get back in it and bring us back in balance (and very likely eventually over-saturate the market), but in the meantime, prices are going up because there isn't enough housing to go around.

In the meantime, there are a fair number of apartment buildings going up, so at least people can find a place to rent and live here in the meantime while there are not enough houses to buy, if they are willing to live in an apartment complex.
We have the same problem. We have a shortage of housing stock because the market didn't really start getting better until 2013. It takes a while to develop land and builders were slow to ramp up. What they are building is priced so high that it is out of the price point of most locals. We have apartments springing up everywhere as well.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-13-2018, 04:00 PM
 
Location: San Diego
32,798 posts, read 30,034,103 times
Reputation: 17687
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silverfall View Post
We have the same problem. We have a shortage of housing stock because the market didn't really start getting better until 2013. It takes a while to develop land and builders were slow to ramp up. What they are building is priced so high that it is out of the price point of most locals. We have apartments springing up everywhere as well.
Are rents high too? They are down here. 2 bedrooms going for over 2 grand.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-13-2018, 04:12 PM
 
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
8,142 posts, read 7,466,203 times
Reputation: 17039
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer View Post
Are rents high too? They are down here. 2 bedrooms going for over 2 grand.
Rents are very high in South Florida. A two bedroom for $2K in downtown FLL is a steal and tough to find. A two bedroom in Miami for $2K is in the ghetto.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-13-2018, 05:18 PM
 
360 posts, read 204,124 times
Reputation: 629
Density is driven by both buyer preference and fundamental economics. People will buy what they desire within some range of what they can afford. Interest rates have been very low for a very long time so it's hard to say they will stay that way long term meaning there is probably a minor pullback or stall in the future. Interest rates affect prices because it's a function of what buyers qualify for in most cases.

Cities are going to encourage density because it is easier to provide services to a smaller denser and wealthier area.

The biggest tech disruption coming is driver less cars. On one hand they'll make city living easier by dramatically lowering the cost of bus and taxi service(driver labor is over 50% of the cost of these services now). It will also reduce the need for parking making density cheaper to deliver. Since the two largest expenses of most households are housing and transportation if people can drop cars and save money that's more money they can put in housing; that's how the middle class in New York and Chicago survive now with high housing costs.

On the other hand not having to drive may make rural areas more desirable. Instead of an hour commute into town where you are driving on congested roads you can make your breakfast and take it and eat it on the ride into work and read or watch tv on your ipad. All the benefits of the train without the creepy people and walk to the station.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-14-2018, 10:01 AM
 
261 posts, read 106,451 times
Reputation: 359
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackalope48 View Post
Density is driven by both buyer preference and fundamental economics. People will buy what they desire within some range of what they can afford. Interest rates have been very low for a very long time so it's hard to say they will stay that way long term meaning there is probably a minor pullback or stall in the future. Interest rates affect prices because it's a function of what buyers qualify for in most cases.

Cities are going to encourage density because it is easier to provide services to a smaller denser and wealthier area.

The biggest tech disruption coming is driver less cars. On one hand they'll make city living easier by dramatically lowering the cost of bus and taxi service(driver labor is over 50% of the cost of these services now). It will also reduce the need for parking making density cheaper to deliver. Since the two largest expenses of most households are housing and transportation if people can drop cars and save money that's more money they can put in housing; that's how the middle class in New York and Chicago survive now with high housing costs.

On the other hand not having to drive may make rural areas more desirable. Instead of an hour commute into town where you are driving on congested roads you can make your breakfast and take it and eat it on the ride into work and read or watch tv on your ipad. All the benefits of the train without the creepy people and walk to the station.
There is something to this. Agreed urban people won't buy driverless cars, but will take ride sharing options (Uber & Lyft). Without having to pay drivers, those options will be less expensive than owning a car. We are several market cycles away from this actually becoming a reality though.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Real Estate
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top