U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Real Estate
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
 
Old 05-09-2018, 12:30 PM
 
10,276 posts, read 6,523,579 times
Reputation: 10857

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimtheGuy View Post
read all 3 articles. pretty much junk (click bait) to get people like yourself worked up.
Exactly these, the sky is falling stories are a way to get people to read what they otherwise wouldn't. They twist facts and pepper the story with facts from 2006 that are not relevant in today's market.
Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-09-2018, 01:17 PM
 
2,778 posts, read 1,508,997 times
Reputation: 2173
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimtheGuy View Post
read all 3 articles. pretty much junk (click bait) to get people like yourself worked up.
Exactly.

I am convinced that there's an extraordinary amount of people visiting these forums who are incapable of nuance.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-09-2018, 02:02 PM
 
Location: TX and NM on the border of the Great Southwest.
11,792 posts, read 15,818,315 times
Reputation: 22478
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ View Post
The area around Alpine and Ft. Davis has seen quite a bit of RE price appreciation, so not all of west TX is in a funk. I never could figure how taxes are set for "ag" versus residential properties. Some counties set aside one acre for the house and treat the rest as grazing land while others convert the whole thing to residential tax rates the minute a shovel of dirt is turned. And down in Terlingua, don't they just hang the appraisers?
Since I have no ag exemptions on this place, I've had Texans in populated eastern Texas where property taxes are somewhat more reasonable actually call me a liar when I told them the annual property tax rate I have to pay on this South Plains farm. Luckily, I only gave about 50% of the current tax appraisal value for the farm.

Regarding hanging tax appraisers, two jobs I would never want on the Texas South Plains is doing property tax appraisals or predicting the weather. Neither seem to involve any science. However, maybe Mitch McConnell's proposed legalization of hemp production will help us out here on the South Plains? We just need to learn how to grow some trees to use the rope in?
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-09-2018, 03:43 PM
 
Location: California
1,134 posts, read 964,216 times
Reputation: 2060
People who say that this is like 2007 have no concept of what caused the 2007 crash.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-09-2018, 05:13 PM
 
Location: San Francisco Bay Area
4,175 posts, read 2,169,055 times
Reputation: 8115
In the city of San Francisco the median priced home sells for $1.65 million now and 80% of the sales are sold over list price (data as of 4/30/18).

The entire bay area is expensive. The closer one is to San Francisco or Silicon Valley, in general, the higher the price escalation.

For the 5-county (SF, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costra counties metro area:
"Since Spring 2016 bay area low-price tier houses have continued to appreciate faster than mid- and high-price tiers."

From the chart below you can see that the lower priced homes are escalating at a steeper rate as people are willing to pay more just to buy a home here, any home:

https://my.paragon-re.com/Docs/Gener...Short-Term.jpg
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-09-2018, 05:32 PM
 
2,143 posts, read 1,155,536 times
Reputation: 4372
Ultimately something has to change demand or supply wise for there to be a crash. Prices rising tend to create a market top, not necessarily a crash.

So it is unlikely that much of the United States will see a major crash unless we start seeing evidence of a serious recession approaching. Which is certainly possible, although the data we have now doesn't point that way yet.

However, that doesn't mean other places are in the same shape. Places like Florida, which in many parts is being driven by Boomer's moving, may suffer some serious demand issues when the last of the Boomers stop coming. Then you start to see the inevitable dying off period. At first, there will be enough demand to eat up the supply. However as people get older and demand falls over the next few years there will be a point where you have empty homes, sitting in FL with high HOAs and high property taxes and no one wanting to buy them. Especially in areas that have sprung up over the last decade with little in the way of jobs outside of servicing old people.

Places like Miami and West Palm will always do ok because there are jobs there. Doesn't mean that prices are going to continue to sky rocket, quite the contrary. We are probably seeing a top form in the market. Unlikely you'll see a major crash there though.

Places like San Francisco, Seattle, NYC, Boston are always going to be in demand. Short of jobs moving somewhere else, people are going to continue to downsize or commute until they can afford something.

I believe the days of making big money on housing is coming to a close. Was a good, crazy run though. You can expect prices to start to level off and for a top with pricing bouncing around that point for many years.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-09-2018, 06:05 PM
 
10,276 posts, read 6,523,579 times
Reputation: 10857
Quote:
Originally Posted by aridon View Post
Ultimately something has to change demand or supply wise for there to be a crash. Prices rising tend to create a market top, not necessarily a crash.

So it is unlikely that much of the United States will see a major crash unless we start seeing evidence of a serious recession approaching. Which is certainly possible, although the data we have now doesn't point that way yet.

However, that doesn't mean other places are in the same shape. Places like Florida, which in many parts is being driven by Boomer's moving, may suffer some serious demand issues when the last of the Boomers stop coming. Then you start to see the inevitable dying off period. At first, there will be enough demand to eat up the supply. However as people get older and demand falls over the next few years there will be a point where you have empty homes, sitting in FL with high HOAs and high property taxes and no one wanting to buy them. Especially in areas that have sprung up over the last decade with little in the way of jobs outside of servicing old people.

Places like Miami and West Palm will always do ok because there are jobs there. Doesn't mean that prices are going to continue to sky rocket, quite the contrary. We are probably seeing a top form in the market. Unlikely you'll see a major crash there though.

Places like San Francisco, Seattle, NYC, Boston are always going to be in demand. Short of jobs moving somewhere else, people are going to continue to downsize or commute until they can afford something.

I believe the days of making big money on housing is coming to a close. Was a good, crazy run though. You can expect prices to start to level off and for a top with pricing bouncing around that point for many years.
Florida has about 1000 people moving here every day. We have passed NY State and are third in population. Miami Dade and Broward and probably Palm Beach County are going to increase because there is little land left. You go to the South West coast of Florida and you see a lot of land still available to build on. I had a friend lose money and have to do a short sale on an investment property he had in Naples, and he's a real estate broker. He speculated and bought high and then they started building again and he lost money on the place. Older smaller homes are doing very well here and there are still some decent well priced condos if you know where to look.

That's a good point that you make that prices may stop rising, but that does not constitute anything close to a housing crash, it's more of a correction and it will most likely affect the most expensive cities.

Home prices may drop, but I did not see rent prices go down after the crash. I know some landlords did not raise rents for their stable dependable tenants but some other corporate places did raise rents as well as the mobile home communities. The ones with lot rents are looking for suckers who are sitting ducks who buy a home, pay high lot rent that gets so high that they are stuck and can't sell.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-09-2018, 06:28 PM
 
Location: NY / Fl.
333 posts, read 245,940 times
Reputation: 620
Quote:
Originally Posted by RosemaryT View Post
Anyone have the feeling that we're back in 2007 territory again with housing inventory, rising prices and easy mortgages?

This article says we might be: https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com...-is-in-trouble

Last year, I bought a lovely home in a good area, and I had to outbid two other buyers to get it. I'm told that this year, the market is even hotter, and that houses are being sold within hours of being listed.

I've got a couple friends that are Realtors, and they're telling me that the market is super-heated right now with no sign of cooling off.

Have we come to the end of another real estate cycle? Are prices going to drop off a cliff soon?
Just spent a couple of weeks house hunting with the daughter in Atlanta. She's tired of high rents and wants something in the Mid Town area. Talked to a Mortgage Broker who said he's never been busier, said they expect another rate hike by mid summer. The loan process seemed very fast if you have good credit, solid job for 2 yrs, & 20% down. He said appraisers are looking closely at property prices. He also said they turn down applicants who are questionable as underwriters won't approve the loan, avoiding one of the reasons for the last crash. People who weren't qualified got loans, walked away, foreclosures, etc...followed. I bought in Florida 2004, rode out the crash, now back to the upside.I don't think we're headed for a crash, tighter banking regulations, solid buyers who ride out a dip, better job market, tighter appraisals, all things they didn't do in 2006...I can see the housing market cooling if the Fed keeps raising rates. Places like Atlanta have Amazon moving in, so job market shows no sign of slowing...
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-09-2018, 06:44 PM
 
10,276 posts, read 6,523,579 times
Reputation: 10857
Quote:
Originally Posted by john-staten island View Post
Places like Atlanta have Amazon moving in, so job market shows no sign of slowing...
What do you mean?
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-09-2018, 07:18 PM
 
Location: NY / Fl.
333 posts, read 245,940 times
Reputation: 620
Quote:
Originally Posted by LifeIsGood01 View Post
What do you mean?
Seriously,? Have you ever been to Atlanta? Home to Coca Cola, CDC, Delta,etc... and now Amazon...Very strong job market...
Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


 
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:
Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Real Estate
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top