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Old 05-18-2018, 02:30 AM
 
536 posts, read 525,465 times
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How long have you lived in Jacksonville, do you like it, and do you feel reasonably settled there? As well as being your biggest financial asset, there’s a value in owning a home that is hard to monetize. You have so much more stability and autonomy than you do renting - along with more responsibility and somewhat less mobility. It can also make you commit to your home and community in a more long term way than renting.

I didn’t become a house owner until I was 46, with my husband who was 42. I can’t tell you how many houses we held back from buying, thinking that prices surely had to ease a little, only to keep being just priced out and having to save more. There are 2 in particular that still sting when I think about where we’d be today (in every sense) if we’d bought either one of them. Shoulda, coulda, woulda. Wish we’d had the nerve to buy earlier.

These are certainly turbulent times, but at some point as a first home buyer, you just have to jump in. It sounds like you can comfortably afford to buy now. Interest rates are still historically low, despite recent rises. Even if there is a downturn, location matters and not all properties lose value at the same rate. Be thoughtful about what and where you buy and be brave.
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Old 05-18-2018, 04:18 AM
 
Location: Cary, NC
31,595 posts, read 55,307,520 times
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Since the bubble discussion is off the table, let's take finance off the table, too.

The reason to buy:
To own your shelter and a piece of the Earth's dirt. Outright. Without encumbrance. For security, stability, independence, to avoid the whims of a landlord. To not be in an apartment with neighbors in proximity.

So, taking finance out of the equation and looking at your lifestyle desire? Buy. Detached SFR.
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Old 05-18-2018, 05:51 AM
 
Location: Jacksonville, FL
11,031 posts, read 13,366,845 times
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But we are in a housing bubble. Ever heard of the Case Schiller index? Home prices are higher today than they were just before the previous crash. Dallas metro, for example, has 50% higher home prices today than they did in 2007. Same with many, many metro areas all over the nation. And the nation as a whole is seeing higher home prices than in 2007. We could argue about the peak being today, later this year or next year, but we're pretty much there.
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Old 05-18-2018, 06:02 AM
 
Location: Boston
5,097 posts, read 1,455,542 times
Reputation: 3734
Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
But we are in a housing bubble. Ever heard of the Case Schiller index? Home prices are higher today than they were just before the previous crash. Dallas metro, for example, has 50% higher home prices today than they did in 2007. Same with many, many metro areas all over the nation. And the nation as a whole is seeing higher home prices than in 2007. We could argue about the peak being today, later this year or next year, but we're pretty much there.
you have no idea where home prices are going, neither do I. Housing indexes don't either.
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Old 05-18-2018, 06:10 AM
 
10,265 posts, read 6,495,798 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
But we are in a housing bubble. Ever heard of the Case Schiller index? Home prices are higher today than they were just before the previous crash. Dallas metro, for example, has 50% higher home prices today than they did in 2007. Same with many, many metro areas all over the nation. And the nation as a whole is seeing higher home prices than in 2007. We could argue about the peak being today, later this year or next year, but we're pretty much there.
Please don't buy. Keep renting. You don't understand why the last housing crash happened, and that prices are returning to normal in most places and going higher in others.

Revisit this in 10 years when you are priced out of the housing market.
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Old 05-18-2018, 06:12 AM
 
Location: Cary, NC
31,595 posts, read 55,307,520 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
But we are in a housing bubble. Ever heard of the Case Schiller index? Home prices are higher today than they were just before the previous crash. Dallas metro, for example, has 50% higher home prices today than they did in 2007. Same with many, many metro areas all over the nation. And the nation as a whole is seeing higher home prices than in 2007. We could argue about the peak being today, later this year or next year, but we're pretty much there.

Buy to own first, with long-term focus, without incurable deficiencies in your purchased property.
I would compare 6 years of renting to 6 years of ownership as a financial metric, including potential resale value.

But, that comparison cannot ignore perceptions of a peak or bubble. And, you said the existence of a peak is not a discussable metric for the purposes of the thread. If you have revised such:

Check out commodities prices, particularly lumber. Resale housing tracks new construction pricing, and vice versa.
And, they aren't making any more land.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/ma...AxknQl?ffid=gz

http://www.turnerconstruction.com/do...x2018Qrtr1.pdf

Building Materials Prices and Labor Access Top Challenges for 2018 | Eye On Housing
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Old 05-18-2018, 06:16 AM
 
Location: Northern Virginia
4,672 posts, read 4,831,520 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
So, I am now 34 years old and finally in a position where I should be able to afford my first ever home this year; probably around September. I live in Jacksonville, FL. I am currently renting and my lease ends Nov 15. However, I truly believe that 2018 is the peak of the housing market, since we're in a huge housing bubble now. I believe that the market decline will begin later this year and that homes will lose up to 50% of their value by 2021. Please don't debate with me whether the housing market is at its peak. Even if it's not at its peak yet, let's just assume that it is at the peak, for purposes of this discussion.

With that said, should I buy a home if *I* believe the market is at (or near) the peak? I have been renting and living in apartments for 12 years now and spent nearly $130,000 in rent over these years. I can't stand apartment living, because I hate hearing neighbors through the walls and them hearing me. I don't like how apartments are so close to each other and there are parking issues, etc. I don't care for, and never use common areas or amenities. And I want outdoor space and don't mind devoting some of my time to maintenance.

So what are your thoughts? Can anyone speak from experience? Is this such a bad idea? Or is it okay to buy at the height of a housing bubble?

I'm leaning toward purchasing regardless. At least I'll have a house to live in and I would easily be able to afford it. But convince me otherwise?
Since you believe that home prices will drop 50% within the next 2 1/2 years - that's when you should buy.
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Old 05-18-2018, 06:21 AM
 
Location: Norfolk
1,574 posts, read 1,978,161 times
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Samuel Johnson, an 18th Century essayist said, "To be happy at home is the ultimate result of all ambition."

Take the financial equation off the table for a moment. You say that you're miserable with apartment life. What's the point of working, if it can't buy you some peace and joy at home?

If I were your mother (and I am old enough to be), I would advise you to go ahead and buy a modest home in a good area, and even if there is a collapse in housing prices, smaller homes are going to take the smallest hit, and they will always be fairly easy to rent. If you find a starter home that makes your heart sing, then you can remain there for a few years and wait for real estate prices to climb back up.

It's a plan that has several escape hatches.

So you're saving on rent, you're building some equity, and you are no longer throwing away money for a living situation that is untenable.

Lastly, if we have a collapse so severe that real estate prices never recover, we're all going to be foraging in the woods for berries.
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Old 05-18-2018, 06:23 AM
 
3,174 posts, read 2,721,937 times
Reputation: 6477
Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
But we are in a housing bubble. Ever heard of the Case Schiller index? Home prices are higher today than they were just before the previous crash. Dallas metro, for example, has 50% higher home prices today than they did in 2007. Same with many, many metro areas all over the nation. And the nation as a whole is seeing higher home prices than in 2007. We could argue about the peak being today, later this year or next year, but we're pretty much there.
If you are right about a 50% decline you'd have to be an idiot to purchase now. Why not save and wait until after the crash and pick up something twice as nice.

For what it's worth, apartment dwellers aren't the only people with bad neighbors but they have more flexibility in being able to move away from bad neighbors than homeowners.
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Old 05-18-2018, 06:39 AM
 
857 posts, read 642,452 times
Reputation: 1662
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeJaquish View Post
To own your shelter and a piece of the Earth's dirt. Outright. Without encumbrance.

Not sure this is possible. Even if you pay cash for the property, you still have to pay rent (property taxes) to the local government. Fail to make these payments and see how unencumbered your property actually is.

If you are sure that property values are going to fall 50%, just take your money and buy puts on publicly traded REIT's. Assuming you are correct, you'll be able to buy a castle in a few years.
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