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Old 07-06-2018, 11:27 AM
 
11,427 posts, read 19,438,504 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ecsdude View Post
I agree.. but the thing is in order to stay in the area and rent, it'd cost about $300+ more per month more than what I pay in total now for mortgage, property tax, insurance, HOA, etc. So I'd be out at least $3600/yr more, plus I wouldn't be able to claim mortgage interest tax deductions after next year if I were to sell this year, for example.. so that is additional money I'd be out..

if home prices don't drop for 2 years, I could be out say $10K per year plus lose out on building equity.. so whatever equity i'd build over the next 2 years is also lost..

the longer I wait for home prices to drop significantly, the more i'm burning in the net proceeds of my sale.. making it more and more like a wash the longer I have to wait..

the only other option is to move somewhere else, a cheaper city entirely.. but then i'm looking at a longer commute..
And you don’t know what a housing crash will do to rentals. Out here during the mortgage meltdown, rents rose, because people who were losing their homes needed housing.

Other places, it took down all housing prices.

I live in one of the worst hit zips during the recession. Our home’s value tanked, and like 95%+ of the homes for sale were foreclosures. Seriously, we bought our house for 72K in 1987, and my home was at one point it worth what we paid for it.

But the fact was, our mortgage payment was 500 some bucks. Rents were three to four times that. As much as I wanted to bail, it didn’t make sense. And with our adjustable mortgage, the payment continued downward. My payment is now 364.
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Old 07-07-2018, 10:21 AM
 
Location: 49th parallel
2,115 posts, read 1,059,922 times
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This is the problem with taking advantage of a hot market - unless you plan to go live in a tepee, you have not done yourself any favors because the place you move to will also have escalated, etc.etc.

If you are in a big city, you can check out any brand new developments or condo buildings. Getting in on the ground floor (even to the point of buying off-plan) means you are paying the lowest possible price for that particular house or condo, and all indications would be that these would go up in price as the units or houses continue to sell out. But even this is not guaranteed.
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Old 07-07-2018, 05:55 PM
 
Location: Florida -
8,238 posts, read 9,994,274 times
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The 'housing market' is unlike the stock market or even the art and collectibles markets. There may be temporary localized RE adjustments in some markets, but, the 2007-2008 housing market crash was an anomaly - that had not occurred for MANY years. Excessively liberal lending to largely unqualified buyers leading up to the crash was also an anomaly that has been largely corrected.

The point, as stipulated by #4 and #12 is that there is little point or advantage to selling and re-buying property in the same market, unless you have a specifically relevant reason (ie; relocation, major lifestyle change, etc). Otherwise, treating one's primary (sole) residence as an in/out investment is largely a losing strategy. (The out and back-in costs and fees alone, particularly with a realtor, will eat-up a significant amount of appreciation).

Last edited by jghorton; 07-07-2018 at 06:04 PM..
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Old 07-07-2018, 09:09 PM
 
433 posts, read 529,923 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jghorton View Post
The 'housing market' is unlike the stock market or even the art and collectibles markets. There may be temporary localized RE adjustments in some markets, but, the 2007-2008 housing market crash was an anomaly - that had not occurred for MANY years. Excessively liberal lending to largely unqualified buyers leading up to the crash was also an anomaly that has been largely corrected.

The point, as stipulated by #4 and #12 is that there is little point or advantage to selling and re-buying property in the same market, unless you have a specifically relevant reason (ie; relocation, major lifestyle change, etc). Otherwise, treating one's primary (sole) residence as an in/out investment is largely a losing strategy. (The out and back-in costs and fees alone, particularly with a realtor, will eat-up a significant amount of appreciation).
I've been wanting to sell the condo for a house, in order to have more room.. admittedly not a necessity but more of a luxury.. so was thinking I could lock in the profits now that it's up about $100K, and just kind of wait for things to cool down a bit before buying at a better price than today. Will it drop to 2009-2011 levels? probably not. but it could possibly drop 10-20%. Just don't know when.


The other option was to sell the condo and relocate to my ideal area.. somewhere by the ocean, or close enough to have a view of it, in another condo conveniently located to a good hospital and shopping. But I worry about condos because of the high HOA dues for the luxury condos that have all the amenities I'd like.. pool, fitness room, secure lobby, private garage parking, etc. I'd probably just continue living there thru retirement as long as it was convenient with elevator access, etc. But I am concerned about the $400-600/mo HOA and/or other dues combined I'd likely have to pay. I'd hate to have paid it off by retirement and still have $400-600/mo HOA dues plus property taxes to pay. Might come down to deciding whether it's really worth that added cost to enjoy a view of the ocean everyday.

Last option is to keep the condo and rent it out, save for a down payment on a house and move into a house.. but I see that as more of a 10-year deal or so.. could be longer, depending on when I am able to retire.. but into retirement, I wouldn't want to live in a house and deal with maintenance.. and would likely end up moving into a condo or something. So the previous option would kind of get me where I ultimately may likely be and require less moving.
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Old 07-07-2018, 09:42 PM
 
11,427 posts, read 19,438,504 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ecsdude View Post
I've been wanting to sell the condo for a house, in order to have more room.. admittedly not a necessity but more of a luxury.. so was thinking I could lock in the profits now that it's up about $100K, and just kind of wait for things to cool down a bit before buying at a better price than today. Will it drop to 2009-2011 levels? probably not. but it could possibly drop 10-20%. Just don't know when.
Well, if you back to great mortgage meltdown, where we, in our very marginal neighborhood, lost our (paper) shirts, I can tell you, the hotter tonier neighborhoods really didn’t. They didn’t go up so much, but the people buying there, they were able to secure financing.


My Dad used to have a saying wish in one hand, poo in the other and see which fills up the fastest. Trying to time the market doesn’t make sense, and the way you’re thinking of will cost you.
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