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Old Today, 12:33 PM
 
1,838 posts, read 438,440 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by britinspain View Post
I am currently watching the property market very closely, 2 years ago prices were rising by the day and I jumped in buying my first house in Florida unseen and thankfully landed lucky, I then bought another last year after finding I liked the area, my first house is now rented and the second house I use for myself.

I was going to invest some more money in Spain where I live for most of the year but have now noticed a change of direction in the local market in Florida and have turned my attention to the possibility of a recession on the way and a possible buying opportunity.

Standard 3 bed 2 bath houses that were being sold in a matter of weeks several months ago are now on the market for a few months and prices are being reduced by the week in many cases, flippers look to be hurting most with houses theyve remodeled sticking, resulting in them reducing prices to try to find a buyer, I believe these flippers will be paying finance while their investment sits empty so this isnt good for them.

Does anyone else think the tides already turned in the property market ?
An individual's perception of an event or sequence thereof can suggest that a particular area in a city is cooling off - such as a slowing of property appreciation, or losing momentum in new construction. This could be due to the market cooling off, or it could be consumers hitting a wall when prices inside city limits are bid up stupid/silly by people overextending themselves to buy.

I've iterated this in prior threads, in different ways, but when the pool of would-be buyers run out of (lent) money, you WILL see prices cool off. I believe somewhere on this website indicated that Raleigh, NC has roughly 2 out of every 3 houses with a mortgage on it. Unless there is a very recent trend of buyers paying outright cash that makes this data outdated and untrue - and given that people in general tend to push the limits of what they can afford - I'd say that this is a major force in my particular market experiencing a cooling off after a good run.
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Old Today, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Malaga Spain & Lady Lake, Florida
318 posts, read 61,461 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JONOV View Post

There was no bubble to begin with.

A Bubble implies that the value of an asset greatly exceeded its intrinsic value. Just because the market has slowed doesn't imply a bubble. Even if it stagnates, not much of a bubble.

Its more like supply is catching up to demand, and demand is softening as the curves even out. And the demand is different this time, its either from home buyers or people that are "real" investors, meaning they intend to flip a house or rent it; no one is buying on pure speculation of appreciation.
Call it want you want, recessions and property prices are cycles which boom and bust, some more dramatically than others.

Quote:
Just because the economy slows down and/or we go into recession does not automatically mean property values will plummet or even go down at all. 2008 was not a 'normal' recession.

Property values have and most likely will continue to rise forever. There may be short term set backs, but long term they have and will continue to rise. Probably forever.

"People panic and jump in".....real estate is a lot different that stocks.

People are "overstreched" right now??? Based on what? Do you think people are as "overstretched" as they were in 2008?

What interest rates are rising? Do you think interest rates are high now? Or do you think they are going to be high in the near future?
Nothing is certain , I have the feeling that the cycles reached the top and asked if other people share this opinion.

I agree property prices will always ultimately go up which is why I invest in property myself rather than stocks and shares but there is and always will be cycles in the property market.

People jump in thinking they will be priced out of the market and wont get the home they want, they then buy at the top of their budget and often struggle if other big expenses come along or interest rates rise.

Quote:
So you buy properties sight unseen and you are warning other posters to "be careful"? Add in that your expertise is in Spain?

Also sounds like you follow Florida. Do you think Florida is indicative of the entire US market?

I buy in cash and have not warned anyone not to buy.

I am no more expert than any one else here but have more personal experience in Spain and Florida, I do however read a hell of a lot of data daily which shapes my thinking and although property fluctuation can be localized, cycles in general are national, they just start in different places and well placed active markets slow down, stop or reverse later than others.

Quote:
The problem with your theory at this current time is property prices are just now recovering from the recession in most places. In many places, property values are still on the low side and average home prices have not increased. There isn't an inflated market in the majority of the country for there to be much if any of a price drop.
Time will tell, my initial post was to ask for others opinions, my opinion is my opinion nothing more and like I say I was about to invest in Spain but in my opinion, things look to be changing enough in Florida at the moment for me to believe there could be a buying opportunity on the horizon.

Last edited by britinspain; Today at 01:05 PM..
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Old Today, 01:05 PM
 
1,838 posts, read 438,440 times
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What I find disheartening is everyone tells themselves that "next time", they'll not sell their stocks and instead buy into the drop, not sell their house during a low point, but hindsight is always 20/20.

There was an enormous loss of jobs which ran people out of cash savings, then out of 401k (selling low), THEN some having to sell their home low or losing it altogether to foreclosure.

But I still see people buying new cars, remodeling the home with projects into the mid five-figure range, and know that it can't all be cash. Some people are doing this on credit because the cash doesn't exist.

History will repeat itself. Enough humans forget lessons learned once they've escaped the resulting pain. Once we're comfortable again, we get lazy or take unnecessary risks, and set ourselves up again for failure.
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Old Today, 01:27 PM
 
28,152 posts, read 45,621,173 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by britinspain View Post
I wanted to buy for myself not investment, maybe 3 years ago I could have bought my pick of 3 bed 2 bath 2 car garages along both coasts of Florida within reason for around $100,000, by the time I decided to buy things had changed and jumped to over $150,000 if I was investing I would have stopped but I wasn't I was buying for myself so the price was irrelevant, I had to buy blind in an an area I hadn't been to much and didnt see the house before buying, like I have said it all worked out well and I like the area and have since bought a larger house to keep and use more often.

The Spanish economy is ticking over and still selling, Im a realtor here and know this market the most.

In the US with data transparency its easier to follow the market though which is what Im doing with Zillow, google etc and I am seeing houses drop in price and not sell and I dont believe this is a normal winter drop due to the amount of time some decent houses are now just sitting now on the market.

Throw in the fast passed growth over the last couple of years, the current trade wars, Trump, interest rate hikes and talk of recession around the globe a picture starts to emerge, it has for me at least and this is why I asked here if anyone else was of the same opinion.
I am not RE agent but just from personal insight I don't agree with your 100K budget for such a plethora of homes on the west coast of FL unless you were well away from the beach and in some areas most could consider undesireable
I have seen 100K homes on realtor.com in this area of FL and they are not much to brag about...

And buying "blind" might mean not seeing first hand but it doesn't have to mean w/o info or resources
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Old Today, 01:35 PM
 
28,152 posts, read 45,621,173 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddm2k View Post
An individual's perception of an event or sequence thereof can suggest that a particular area in a city is cooling off - such as a slowing of property appreciation, or losing momentum in new construction. This could be due to the market cooling off, or it could be consumers hitting a wall when prices inside city limits are bid up stupid/silly by people overextending themselves to buy.

I've iterated this in prior threads, in different ways, but when the pool of would-be buyers run out of (lent) money, you WILL see prices cool off. I believe somewhere on this website indicated that Raleigh, NC has roughly 2 out of every 3 houses with a mortgage on it. Unless there is a very recent trend of buyers paying outright cash that makes this data outdated and untrue - and given that people in general tend to push the limits of what they can afford - I'd say that this is a major force in my particular market experiencing a cooling off after a good run.
Mortgage info comes from the people who take them out

If there is no need for mortgages then few do

My SIL bought condo pre 2008 in Venice FL--on island across from beach
Was small but all he needed since he was not married and traveled for work S-Th or Fri
most of the condos in the 3 bldg COA had no mortgages because they were owned by original buyers and either still lived in as retirement home or used as seasonal occupancy by family
The fact that tht condo was one of few that had almost no foreclosures was because most were already paid off
Didn't mean that other COAs didn't suffer
Just that his was an anomaly

In Raleigh I would imagine most people buying homes are either new to area--moved in for work--or under 50 w/families--
Likely not that many retired people buying for cash--
As there are in my area of FL

There are some neighborhoods in my NTX area where many homes in certain price points are not owner occupied--they were bought during recession and used for rental properties either by individuals owning only a couple or by larger Corp's who swooped in and saw potential for DFW's growth and bought for long term investments...
If they are mortgaged it is because that is a business decision to help the bottom line in some way
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Old Today, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Malaga Spain & Lady Lake, Florida
318 posts, read 61,461 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read View Post
I am not RE agent but just from personal insight I don't agree with your 100K budget for such a plethora of homes on the west coast of FL unless you were well away from the beach and in some areas most could consider undesireable
I have seen 100K homes on realtor.com in this area of FL and they are not much to brag about...

And buying "blind" might mean not seeing first hand but it doesn't have to mean w/o info or resources
I was looking at decent looking 3 bedroom 2 bathroom houses 3 years ago, not today !!! and I looked a all over including Fort Myers on the west coast but was interested in Titusville on the east coast particularly because at that time jobs were being created at cape canaveral and there was good demand for rental properties, I spoke with a few realtors who dealt in both rentals and sales at the time and they, like me didn’t expect the prices to rise, by the time I got monies in place they were going up by the week.

I eventually changed plan to buy for myself and settled on Lake county due to liking this area personally, but had to pay $150,000, of course I researched the life out of it on the internet due to not being able to fly over and view before buying, I also paid for a full inspection which was money well spent.

It was a big roll of the dice for me but thankfully worked out.

Last edited by britinspain; Today at 02:52 PM..
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Old Today, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Union County
5,722 posts, read 8,221,390 times
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Since the residential RE market is cyclical (yet to see anyone ever argue that it wasn't), everyone gets to be right about boom and bust cycles... eventually. We all win the argument at some point!
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Old Today, 07:02 PM
 
1,838 posts, read 438,440 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyKid View Post
Since the residential RE market is cyclical (yet to see anyone ever argue that it wasn't), everyone gets to be right about boom and bust cycles... eventually. We all win the argument at some point!
Even a broken clock is right twice a day...
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Old Today, 07:47 PM
 
1,932 posts, read 481,322 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corpgypsy View Post
I think it is upon us! Yes to the OP. Nationally.
Agree. I have been saying it for months.
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