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Old 09-07-2019, 03:16 PM
 
55 posts, read 19,262 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Burnley View Post
Maybe in your specific area only.

Real Estate values are definetly not declining, they are increasing.
False. Prices are declining in several markets (Seattle and San Jose, to name two high-profile markets), slowing in many, if not most, and the national growth rate (per Case Shiller) is grinding down to the lowest YoY rate since the trough in 2012.

When you look at this in spite of 3.7% unemployment and rates being 100bp+ lower than this time last year, it's not a good sign. Very likely things go negative next year in a lot more markets.
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Old 09-07-2019, 03:37 PM
 
Location: The Berk in Denver, CO USA
14,230 posts, read 20,737,157 times
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Definitely declining.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...ice-index.html
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Old 09-07-2019, 03:41 PM
 
73,372 posts, read 73,161,891 times
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National means nothing ....all that counts is the area where you want to buy ...we are still climbing in our area
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Old 09-07-2019, 03:52 PM
 
Location: Union County
5,809 posts, read 8,500,506 times
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According to Shiller... yup:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...prices-started
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Old 09-07-2019, 03:58 PM
 
73,372 posts, read 73,161,891 times
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Schiller actually said he was going to stop predicting since his predictions seemed to be off to frequently.

Robert Shiller made a prediction in July 1996 that did not come close to proving out. He said in a paper titled "Price-Earnings Ratios as Forecasters of Returns: The Stock Market Outlook in 1996" that: "The market is quite likely to decline substantially in value over the succeeding ten years; it appears that long run investors should stay out of the market for the next decade." Shiller couldn't have been more wrong. The annualized real return for the ten years following the day that Shiller made that prediction was 5.9 percent. From the time that he made the prediction through today, the return has been 6.5 percent.

So shiller said he was going to refrain from predicting much
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Old 09-07-2019, 03:58 PM
 
55 posts, read 19,262 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davebarnes View Post
Look at your own post. There's a very clear slowing of growth in the past year or so, if the same level of deceleration continues into next year, it could get into the negative territory. Heck, if rates didn't get a lucky drop of 100 to 125 bp YoY, we'd probably be in a lot worse shape this year. Believe it or not, it's not "to the moon Alice" forever.

Bob Shiller himself, the person behind the very graph you linked, just said he "Wouldn't be at all surprised" if US home values begin to decline.
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Old 09-07-2019, 04:00 PM
 
55 posts, read 19,262 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Schiller actually said he was going to stop predicting since his predictions seemed to be off to frequently.

Robert Shiller made a prediction in July 1996 that did not come close to proving out. He said in a paper titled "Price-Earnings Ratios as Forecasters of Returns: The Stock Market Outlook in 1996" that: "The market is quite likely to decline substantially in value over the succeeding ten years; it appears that long run investors should stay out of the market for the next decade." Shiller couldn't have been more wrong. The annualized real return for the ten years following the day that Shiller made that prediction was 5.9 percent. From the time that he made the prediction through today, the return has been 6.5 percent.

So shiller said he was going to refrain from predicting much
His timeframe was slightly off, but his 10 year predicition was very accurate. 1998-2008 was a completely flat 10 years. Probably the worse decade period for US stocks.

An even 10 years for stocks w/10 years of inflation = a decline.
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Old 09-07-2019, 04:02 PM
 
73,372 posts, read 73,161,891 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smc733 View Post
His timeframe was slightly off, but his 10 year predicition was very accurate. 1998-2008 was a completely flat 10 years. Probably the worse decade period for US stocks.
Ha ha ha , even a broken watch is eventually twice a day ..markets go up and they go down ...if you are going to predict it needs to be accurate , not eventually happen ..eventually every prediction is correct if we stretch or shrink the designated time line .

1 year either way from a prediction can change the entire outlook .
No ,he knew he was wrong and admitted it already and that is why he said he was going to try and refrain from predicting
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Old 09-07-2019, 04:25 PM
 
55 posts, read 19,262 times
Reputation: 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Ha ha ha , even a broken watch is eventually twice a day ..markets go up and they go down ...if you are going to predict it needs to be accurate , not eventually happen ..eventually every prediction is correct if we stretch or shrink the designated time line .

1 year either way from a prediction can change the entire outlook .
No ,he knew he was wrong and admitted it already and that is why he said he was going to try and refrain from predicting
The broken watch argument is a tired excuse to try to discredit someone. The technical analysis behind his prediction was solid, and came to fruition.He also called the 2008 housing bubble.

Do you have a link to him saying he's going to step away from predictions? He is a world-respected nobel prize winning economist. I'll take his statements a lot more seriously than housing permabulls. Plenty of fundamental indicators show housing is in a very precarious position right now. The drop in interest rates is what's keeping things temporarily propped up.
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Old 09-07-2019, 04:28 PM
 
73,372 posts, read 73,161,891 times
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Seeking alpha


I wrote here recently about how Robert Shiller made a prediction in July 1996 that did not come close to proving out. He said in a paper titled "Price-Earnings Ratios as Forecasters of Returns: The Stock Market Outlook in 1996" that: "The market is quite likely to decline substantially in value over the succeeding ten years; it appears that long run investors should stay out of the market for the next decade." Shiller couldn't have been more wrong. The annualized real return for the ten years following the day that Shiller made that prediction was 5.9 percent. From the time that he made the prediction through today, the return has been 6.5 percent.

Shiller has been reluctant to offer such predictions in recent years, even though valuation levels are now higher than the ones that caused his alarm back in 1996. In several interviews, he has disdained market timing. He indicated in one interview that while he once believed that some forms of return predictions were possible, he no longer does. He did not say what caused the change in heart, but I think that the most likely explanation is that seeing his own prediction fail so spectacularly convinced him that it would be a mistake to try again.
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