Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Real Estate
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 05-13-2008, 10:08 AM
 
Location: Gilbert - Val Vista Lakes
6,069 posts, read 14,764,983 times
Reputation: 3876

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamesww View Post
Ok, hold on, how is it too late? We are not going to see appreciation rates like we did during this last boom. The appreciation rates were higher than they had ever have been in all of recorded history. Now I agree that many of the best properties may have already been sold, but there will still be plenty of inventory and plenty of good values. The "by then it is too late" bull crap is irritating me and hearing my fellow agents spouting this is embarrassing. I think your logic is very poor and would appreciate it if you never say something even remotely similar to this again, because it is flat wrong.
James, I always appreciate your posts, but I think in this one you're contradicting yourself. Maybe it's the way that Sue phrased it, or maybe you didn't like my logic; I don't know which set you off against your fellow agents.

However, you state yourelf that you agree that "many of the best properties may have already been sold". Since you agree with that, then Sue's statement cannot be flat wrong. She and I are saying the same thing that you're saying, just in different words.

In my statements I'm not trying to add fluff. I'm stating what I believe to be true based on what I'm seeing in my market with my buyers. And that is, that the buyers today are choosing the cream of the crop, so it stands to reason that the best homes are going to be bought by the early buyers.

When the market reaches a bottom, it won't be recognized by most people because there may still be ups and downs, and as some have said, it can go flat for awhile. That is a guess by some; not a fact.

This market is different because of the steep rise, the steep drop, and the buyers who are waiting in the wings. When those buyers finally decide it's time to jump in, it is entirely possible that there will be a feeding frenzy. We do not know what will happen, but there are certainly several scenarios that can be played out.

At any rate there will be some buyers who will recognize this and they'll be joining the early buyers. The bottom feeders, and I don't mean that in a derogatory manner, will most likely wait until the market increases, because they want to make sure that they buy at the very bottom, which is virtually impossible except in hindsight.

In my opinion, the bottom of a real estate market is no different from the bottom of the stock market; it is nearly impossible to time, and virtually impossible to see until it's past. Market timers get burned much of the time. Even the professional day traders get burned badly by mis-timing.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-13-2008, 10:12 AM
 
Location: Humboldt Park, Chicago
2,686 posts, read 7,863,046 times
Reputation: 1196
Default Suestark and Mojo

Suestark,

You may mean well and are certainly doing your best in a struggling market in Madison. If you are doing well, great. Many of your fellow realtors are not. Your market as a whole stinks as the data points out.

Calling a bottom in your market is silly. Even the NAR forecasts price drops for 2008. I don't think prices will stabilize until inventory levels are cut to less than 6 months. They are currently at 10 months nationwide.

I do not always agree with Captain but he seems much more informed than your regarding the market trends and what is going on overall economically.

I have no problem trashing the NAR or most realtors as a whole. Captain and Mr. Hoffman seem to be pretty knowledgeable as are some others on this forum. Based upon your recent posts, Suestark does not earn a spot in this group. Perhaps you can redeem yourself Ms. Suestark with more insightful posts.

Many of us who post on here are quite educated about real estate and investments. I actually have access to resources that you do not, working for a big bank in the way of research. MLS listings are a dime a dozen and I use 4 realtors to view listings in certain areas in Chicago in certain price ranges. I have worked with all 4 agents but do not trust them further than I can throw them.

It would be nice to have a realtor that I could trust or a mortgage broker that I could trust. I have found a good mortgage broker. Do I trust him, nope, but he does give me the best rates and terms (I get CRA incentives on some of my properties). Realtors I just use to complete the transaction. I have thought about getting my broker's license to cut them out of the loop completely, but just haven't had the time.

I do trust my attorneys who keep my mortgage brokers and realtors in check.

Mojo,

I agree with many on here being too optimistic and I think that it is a good thing people are no longer buying with 100% financing, which obviously limits the pool of potential buyers, thereby increasing inventories and driving down prices, simple supply and demand economic theory.

I am still in disagreement with you regarding opportunity cost for 15 vs 30 yr mortgage, but that is another discussion.

The bank I work for is very concerned about liquidity constraints in the market. We are looking to reduce our consumer loan portfolio, particularly HELOC by 50% over the next 12 months. The other money center banks (that means the top 10 banks in the world) are looking to reduce their exposure to home loans as well, particularly equity loans. Clearly, the market is still in a rough spot and it may take awhile for us to get out of it.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-13-2008, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
469 posts, read 1,483,962 times
Reputation: 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
James, I always appreciate your posts, but I think in this one you're contradicting yourself. Maybe it's the way that Sue phrased it, or maybe you didn't like my logic; I don't know which set you off against your fellow agents.
It is most definitively in large part due to the way she phrased it. She used words that illicit fear among people and this in my view is on par with sales techniques used by vacuum cleaner salesmen of the past. I believe it to be unprofessional and an insult on people's intelligence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
However, you state yourelf that you agree that "many of the best properties may have already been sold". Since you agree with that, then Sue's statement cannot be flat wrong. She and I are saying the same thing that you're saying, just in different words.
Sue's statement implies that all properties worth purchasing will be gone and this is just flat not the truth. If you believe that all the properties that are worth purchasing will be gone then I no longer agree even in part with you. I do feel that some of the very best properties that were only sold because the seller had to will be gone. That is why I encourage clients to purchase if they find a home in near perfect condition that they love, because I think a number of these will no longer be available. But, I do not feel that all of them will be gone. And I think that even if someone waits until we start having property increases following the bottom that they might just pay less than if they bought before we hit bottom. My reasoning has to do with the idea of geometric averages which I think would be difficult to go into here in a forum post. This principle is why prices in dollar amounts (and dollars are what people should care about not necissarily percentages) will decline faster than they will increase following the bottom.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
In my opinion, the bottom of a real estate market is no different from the bottom of the stock market; it is nearly impossible to time, and virtually impossible to see until it's past. Market timers get burned much of the time. Even the professional day traders get burned badly by mis-timing.
Data over the last 30 years is in conflict with your opinion here. Historically real estate prices have turned around slowly, not suddenly as do stock prices. But, for argument sake, let's say your opinion is correct and that real estate prices turn around from the bottom rapidly, what makes you think that the person won't still be able to buy at the same price as they would have prior to the bottom? On the way down, you will see larger price decreases in dollar terms than you will see in price increases in dollar terms for the same percentage of price change. This is why I'm going to have to disagree entirely with the idea that it would ever be "too late".
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-13-2008, 11:18 AM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
469 posts, read 1,483,962 times
Reputation: 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
I tend toward your view...but can argue either way. What I told a person recently was it was close enough to the bottom to buy safely but that it was not going anywhere soon so if he wanted to wait until Fall and check again it would be OK. I suggested he watch the REPOs closely and consider buying if they start to move up sharply.

I do have one big concern. The REPOs which drive this market can be turned on or off or modutated on demand. That is their price can go up or even stop pricing below comps on the will of the lenders. And they may well have a fiduciary duty to the actual mortgage owner to do so if the market turns a little.

So the rise from the bottom may not be "free market". We may see, as we did going down, significant market manipulation by the lenders.

What will happen? Who knows. Might just stop...volume drops to half...might rise 5 or 10% in a reasonably short time. May get a feeding frenzy started where prices roll up for a while.

So you can wait but you better pay attention. This market can go off into some different direction real quick. It is not a stable situation and presuming any trend will hold very long is likely folly.
I like your take much more than sue's I just can not handle "the sky is falling" mentalities that I hear day in and day out. And furthermore dont want to hear members of my profession preaching when we come back around.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-13-2008, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
469 posts, read 1,483,962 times
Reputation: 295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humboldt1 View Post
Suestark,

You may mean well and are certainly doing your best in a struggling market in Madison. If you are doing well, great. Many of your fellow realtors are not. Your market as a whole stinks as the data points out.

Calling a bottom in your market is silly. Even the NAR forecasts price drops for 2008. I don't think prices will stabilize until inventory levels are cut to less than 6 months. They are currently at 10 months nationwide.

I do not always agree with Captain but he seems much more informed than your regarding the market trends and what is going on overall economically.

I have no problem trashing the NAR or most realtors as a whole. Captain and Mr. Hoffman seem to be pretty knowledgeable as are some others on this forum. Based upon your recent posts, Suestark does not earn a spot in this group. Perhaps you can redeem yourself Ms. Suestark with more insightful posts.

Many of us who post on here are quite educated about real estate and investments. I actually have access to resources that you do not, working for a big bank in the way of research. MLS listings are a dime a dozen and I use 4 realtors to view listings in certain areas in Chicago in certain price ranges. I have worked with all 4 agents but do not trust them further than I can throw them.

It would be nice to have a realtor that I could trust or a mortgage broker that I could trust. I have found a good mortgage broker. Do I trust him, nope, but he does give me the best rates and terms (I get CRA incentives on some of my properties). Realtors I just use to complete the transaction. I have thought about getting my broker's license to cut them out of the loop completely, but just haven't had the time.

I do trust my attorneys who keep my mortgage brokers and realtors in check.

Mojo,

I agree with many on here being too optimistic and I think that it is a good thing people are no longer buying with 100% financing, which obviously limits the pool of potential buyers, thereby increasing inventories and driving down prices, simple supply and demand economic theory.

I am still in disagreement with you regarding opportunity cost for 15 vs 30 yr mortgage, but that is another discussion.

The bank I work for is very concerned about liquidity constraints in the market. We are looking to reduce our consumer loan portfolio, particularly HELOC by 50% over the next 12 months. The other money center banks (that means the top 10 banks in the world) are looking to reduce their exposure to home loans as well, particularly equity loans. Clearly, the market is still in a rough spot and it may take awhile for us to get out of it.
I want every real estate agent on this forum to read this post. This is why it bothers me so very much when I hear, "it is going to be to late," we as agents should be acting as advisors not simple as sales people. We need to be level headed in this time of termoil not trying to use fear to persuade others to our wishes.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-13-2008, 12:22 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,703,337 times
Reputation: 3722
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamesww View Post
I want every real estate agent on this forum to read this post. This is why it bothers me so very much when I hear, "it is going to be to late," we as agents should be acting as advisors not simple as sales people. We need to be level headed in this time of termoil not trying to use fear to persuade others to our wishes.
Jamesww, the reason why you have that attitude alot of times is because the commission overwhelmingly steers the car. Again, I'll go back to the old adage: When have you heard anyone from the industry say out loud "its not a good time to buy"? Yes you may have 1 out of 100 or so who do, but come on......


That's the problem in any type of industry where its commission driven unfortunately...I'm in a service/commission industry and its the same thing...
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-13-2008, 01:45 PM
 
Location: Columbia, SC
10,962 posts, read 21,947,780 times
Reputation: 10638
I agree with quite a few posters on this thread that have different view points.

Real estate agents should be advisor's that give the consumer all the information to make an educated decision. Agents should help the consumer make the right decision which is sometimes telling them to rent or wait to purchase.

This is where Humboldt's post comes in that the consumer needs to find an honest, trustworthy agent that acts in the consumers best interest. The right agent should be able to earn that trust.

CJ even makes some good points even though I personally disagree with many of his posts. I think it ties back into the adviser role and earning trust. It is very difficult. The consumer needs to interview more agents and treat the hiring of an agent more seriously. When this happens, and the companies stop taking anyone and everyone that wants a license, the RE profession will become a profession and have more public respect.

It will never be perfect but it will be better.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-13-2008, 02:38 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,703,337 times
Reputation: 3722
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Hoffman View Post
CJ even makes some good points even though I personally disagree with many of his posts. .
"CJ even makes some good points".....

Wow, thanks for the backhanded compliment like I'm UNABLE to make a good point or something.

I know we disagree most times, and it stings when I make comments you don't like to hear about your profession in general, but please don't patronize me just because you have a "license" to practice real estate. It really doesn't matter....
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-13-2008, 03:05 PM
 
Location: Humboldt Park, Chicago
2,686 posts, read 7,863,046 times
Reputation: 1196
Default Coupon Jack

Mr. Hoffman is one of the more reputable realtors you are going to find on this forum or I suspect in general. I have alot of respect for him and he seems to know his stuff, not just in his market.

He was giving you a compliment, nothing backhanded about it.

I can't stand most people in the real estate profession but will give props when they are due. I am certainly giving props to Mr. Hoffman as knowing alot about real estate and economics in general. Most realtors don't have that kind of knowledge and are just salespeople with little real knowledge.

I only hope I can find a realtor such as Mr. Hoffman in the Chicago area to work with. I still wouldn't trust him on the first transaction fully, though. That kind of trust comes over time, after more than just one deal. Once a realtor has shown their value to me I will use them repeatedly, though I will always keep a few in my pocket as not every realtor can be everything to everyone and I am not just looking for one type of property. Certain realtors will be better at some things than others.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-13-2008, 03:11 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,703,337 times
Reputation: 3722
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humboldt1 View Post

He was giving you a compliment, nothing backhanded about it.
I know he knows alot about real estate, that was not the issue.

If you interpreted it a different way, fine. I didn't.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Real Estate
Similar Threads

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:01 PM.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top