Will a new President turn the market around? (investment, mortgage, mortgage)

[CityGirl72]

I'm not saying that any Presidents economic policy will have an effect - I'm more looking at America's "view" of the market.

Like in January when whomever is sworn in, do you think it will give people "hope" and thus persuade the market to have an upswing even if it's just fleeting for a quarter?

This is what I'm hoping for since our house will go on the market in January. As I cross my fingers.

(and of course I know it could very well do the opposite of upswing and tank, all depending on how America views the new presidency)

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by CityGirl72

I'm not saying that any Presidents economic policy will have an effect - I'm more looking at America's "view" of the market.

Like in January when whomever is sworn in, do you think it will give people "hope" and thus persuade the market to have an upswing even if it's just fleeting for a quarter?

This is what I'm hoping for since our house will go on the market in January. As I cross my fingers.

(and of course I know it could very well do the opposite of upswing and tank, all depending on how America views the new presidency)

Funny you ask this, I was just wondering the same thing, myself just this morning.

I think it will have at least a temporary upswing due to people feeling optimistic.

Good luck!

[chet everett]

January is NOT a good sales month in most of the country. College kids are headed back to school, bills for Christmas presents come due, weather is miserable for large swath of the US.

Things are a bit better in February, the various holidays can give people an excuse to at least think about something like Valentines, have beer on St. Patricks, banks are closed for Presidents Day.

In 2009 when April 15 rolls around there might be quite a few people with nasty unbudgeted tax liability due to the stimulus check.

I really do think that weather can (and this year in Chicago did) have an outsized negative effect on the overall mood of people and subsequently depress the housing market. Not too much you can do about this, but it is smart to be aware of it and be prepared to sit tight or adjust expectations accordingly.

I am not going to comment on the impact of a first term President's first 30, 60, 90, 100 days other than to say either Obama or McCain (and the new Congress) will force many people / institutions to rethink assumptions they've lived with for the past 8 - 22 years. I really think that the broader economic policies of the Bush 41 (G.H.W.B) were different than Reagan and the previous Fed Chairmen, Paul Volcker, but similar to Clinton and Bush 43 who all had Greenspan to thank for global expansion.

[chuck22b]

I think gas prices dropping will have a bigger effect than a new President. A new President will depend on the State your in and which incumbent wins. If your in a State that gets the President that it wanted, then I think the euphoria would help stimulate some housing. Overall though, I think Americans are looking for any change in leadership (based on Consumer Sentiment)... and it should help some... but I wouldn't put my whole life on hold depending on it.

-chuck22b

[ViewFromThePeak]

We're coming off the biggest credit bubble in US history. Moses himself as president won't change things much.

[sonarrat]

Originally Posted by ViewFromThePeak

We're coming off the biggest credit bubble in US history.

Not even close. There's a great site about the history of credit in the U.S.: The History of Credit & Debt

Specifically: The History of Credit & Debt - Early Sources of Credit

The 1890 census discovered the average household had about $880 of debt and only $475 in annual income. Compare that to 1998 when family debt was $33,000 and annual income was $32,800.

[tamitrail]

Originally Posted by CityGirl72

I'm not saying that any Presidents economic policy will have an effect - I'm more looking at America's "view" of the market.

Like in January when whomever is sworn in, do you think it will give people "hope" and thus persuade the market to have an upswing even if it's just fleeting for a quarter?

This is what I'm hoping for since our house will go on the market in January. As I cross my fingers.

(and of course I know it could very well do the opposite of upswing and tank, all depending on how America views the new presidency)

Not if a Republican wins.

[chet everett]

Historically the party affiliation has had little effect on housing prices.

I think the charts show stocks have done better in most first year Dem presidencies, but not an ironclad rule.

If you look at the massive amounts of funds that have been put in the campaign coffers it is a fair bet that someone is going to be looking for some "do overs" to get a "return on investment"...

[ViewFromThePeak]

Originally Posted by sonarrat

Not even close. There's a great site about the history of credit in the U.S.: The History of Credit & Debt

Specifically: The History of Credit & Debt - Early Sources of Credit

What about debt/savings ratio? How about there was no inflation (because we were on a gold standard) back then? What about adjustable rate mortgage and other variable interest rate impacts with a depreciating dollar?

[neil0311]

One way or the other we'll get a new President. What that President does will have some impact on the stock market, but maybe not the one that some of you hope. The real estate market will probably follow the general course of the stock market and economy.

If the new President comes into office on a pledge to raise income and capital gains taxes (or let existing lower rates expire and revert back to higher ones), then that will not be a message welcomed by the stock market. Higher taxes will lead to more recessionary tendencies.

If the new President announces a unilateral withdrawal from Iraq, that could send the market crashing as well, as chaos ensues and oil supplies become vulnerable in the chaos.

If the new President shows his lack of experience, that could send the market lower.

Yes...a new President may affect both the stock and real estate markets.