U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Real Estate
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 1.5 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Jump to a detailed profile or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Business Search - 14 Million verified businesses
Search for:  near: 
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 06-24-2008, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Happiness is found inside your smile :)
3,177 posts, read 9,892,896 times
Reputation: 1158
Default Will a new President turn the market around?

I'm not saying that any Presidents economic policy will have an effect - I'm more looking at America's "view" of the market.

Like in January when whomever is sworn in, do you think it will give people "hope" and thus persuade the market to have an upswing even if it's just fleeting for a quarter?

This is what I'm hoping for since our house will go on the market in January. As I cross my fingers.

(and of course I know it could very well do the opposite of upswing and tank, all depending on how America views the new presidency)
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 06-24-2008, 11:10 AM
 
10,025 posts, read 16,002,092 times
Reputation: 7713
Quote:
Originally Posted by CityGirl72 View Post
I'm not saying that any Presidents economic policy will have an effect - I'm more looking at America's "view" of the market.

Like in January when whomever is sworn in, do you think it will give people "hope" and thus persuade the market to have an upswing even if it's just fleeting for a quarter?

This is what I'm hoping for since our house will go on the market in January. As I cross my fingers.

(and of course I know it could very well do the opposite of upswing and tank, all depending on how America views the new presidency)
Funny you ask this, I was just wondering the same thing, myself just this morning.

I think it will have at least a temporary upswing due to people feeling optimistic.

Good luck!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-24-2008, 11:23 AM
 
21,440 posts, read 34,487,808 times
Reputation: 10464
January is NOT a good sales month in most of the country. College kids are headed back to school, bills for Christmas presents come due, weather is miserable for large swath of the US.

Things are a bit better in February, the various holidays can give people an excuse to at least think about something like Valentines, have beer on St. Patricks, banks are closed for Presidents Day.

In 2009 when April 15 rolls around there might be quite a few people with nasty unbudgeted tax liability due to the stimulus check.

I really do think that weather can (and this year in Chicago did) have an outsized negative effect on the overall mood of people and subsequently depress the housing market. Not too much you can do about this, but it is smart to be aware of it and be prepared to sit tight or adjust expectations accordingly.

I am not going to comment on the impact of a first term President's first 30, 60, 90, 100 days other than to say either Obama or McCain (and the new Congress) will force many people / institutions to rethink assumptions they've lived with for the past 8 - 22 years. I really think that the broader economic policies of the Bush 41 (G.H.W.B) were different than Reagan and the previous Fed Chairmen, Paul Volcker, but similar to Clinton and Bush 43 who all had Greenspan to thank for global expansion.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-24-2008, 11:23 AM
 
Location: Chino, CA
1,458 posts, read 2,047,775 times
Reputation: 534
I think gas prices dropping will have a bigger effect than a new President. A new President will depend on the State your in and which incumbent wins. If your in a State that gets the President that it wanted, then I think the euphoria would help stimulate some housing. Overall though, I think Americans are looking for any change in leadership (based on Consumer Sentiment)... and it should help some... but I wouldn't put my whole life on hold depending on it.

-chuck22b
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-24-2008, 11:43 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,047 posts, read 7,870,917 times
Reputation: 1368
We're coming off the biggest credit bubble in US history. Moses himself as president won't change things much.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-24-2008, 11:55 AM
 
Location: San Jose, CA
6,699 posts, read 16,198,458 times
Reputation: 2456
Quote:
Originally Posted by ViewFromThePeak View Post
We're coming off the biggest credit bubble in US history.
Not even close. There's a great site about the history of credit in the U.S.: The History of Credit & Debt

Specifically: The History of Credit & Debt - Early Sources of Credit

Quote:
The 1890 census discovered the average household had about $880 of debt and only $475 in annual income. Compare that to 1998 when family debt was $33,000 and annual income was $32,800.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-24-2008, 11:57 AM
 
1,718 posts, read 3,555,707 times
Reputation: 785
Quote:
Originally Posted by CityGirl72 View Post
I'm not saying that any Presidents economic policy will have an effect - I'm more looking at America's "view" of the market.

Like in January when whomever is sworn in, do you think it will give people "hope" and thus persuade the market to have an upswing even if it's just fleeting for a quarter?

This is what I'm hoping for since our house will go on the market in January. As I cross my fingers.

(and of course I know it could very well do the opposite of upswing and tank, all depending on how America views the new presidency)
Not if a Republican wins.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-24-2008, 12:16 PM
 
21,440 posts, read 34,487,808 times
Reputation: 10464
Historically the party affiliation has had little effect on housing prices.

I think the charts show stocks have done better in most first year Dem presidencies, but not an ironclad rule.

If you look at the massive amounts of funds that have been put in the campaign coffers it is a fair bet that someone is going to be looking for some "do overs" to get a "return on investment"...
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-24-2008, 12:41 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,047 posts, read 7,870,917 times
Reputation: 1368
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonarrat View Post
Not even close. There's a great site about the history of credit in the U.S.: The History of Credit & Debt

Specifically: The History of Credit & Debt - Early Sources of Credit
What about debt/savings ratio? How about there was no inflation (because we were on a gold standard) back then? What about adjustable rate mortgage and other variable interest rate impacts with a depreciating dollar?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-24-2008, 02:29 PM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,652 posts, read 9,569,913 times
Reputation: 3180
One way or the other we'll get a new President. What that President does will have some impact on the stock market, but maybe not the one that some of you hope. The real estate market will probably follow the general course of the stock market and economy.

If the new President comes into office on a pledge to raise income and capital gains taxes (or let existing lower rates expire and revert back to higher ones), then that will not be a message welcomed by the stock market. Higher taxes will lead to more recessionary tendencies.

If the new President announces a unilateral withdrawal from Iraq, that could send the market crashing as well, as chaos ensues and oil supplies become vulnerable in the chaos.

If the new President shows his lack of experience, that could send the market lower.

Yes...a new President may affect both the stock and real estate markets.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $84,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Real Estate

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:41 PM.

2005-2014, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Top