Have we hit bottom yet?

[le roi]

In my metro area, over 20% of the annual metro area GDP is under the category "Construction/Real Estate." So for our real estate market the carnage is just beginning, since the biggest components of the economy are real estate, construction, finance, tourism, and government. Unemployment is 8%, which isn't all that bad considering the circumstances. Rents are moving down as well.. however, "the establishment" (i.e. property owners, developers, real estate agents, politicians) often expresses their opinion that this place is unique, and immune to economic malaise, due to the fact that we attract so many out-of-town buyers.

I saw something in the news about a county in SC near where I grew up.. unemployment there is 23.4%.

[BigDragon]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

I also think that the recent stock market rally is going to end up being a false bottom.

When do you guys see us hitting bottom in your local markets and nationally

The recent stock market rally is actually very troubling. Ask around to friends, family, and professionals. Those who are not in the market for the "long haul" are mostly waiting for a specific number. It's probably between 8,000 and 9,000 points. As soon as the market hits that point they'll yank their money out because they'll feel like they've recovered some of what they lost. The result will be an even deeper nosedive than what we've had since Obama was elected (that 30% loss in a matter of months). China is pressuring the administration more each day and the UK and parts of Europe are on the brink of a depression-style collapse. Things are not getting better. This is the eye of the hurricane. The real nasty stuff hasn't hit yet.

My real estate market of central suburban Maryland is not even close to the bottom. Some properties have been heavily discounted but continue to fail to sell. Banks and resellers remain in denial in this area since everyone thinks it's immune to the recession because of all the government jobs. Unemployment and mortgage fraud is accelerating here. Very little is selling right now. The stuff that's affordable normally has a major problem such as moisture issues or excessively high monthly fees and taxes. I want to buy and have been approved to buy, but there's nothing worth buying yet.