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Old 08-26-2009, 12:00 AM
 
220 posts, read 967,898 times
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Home price report: Case-Shiller shows increase of 2.9% - Aug. 25, 2009 The rebound may mean that potential homebuyers will have more of a feeling of urgency, afraid that they'll miss the market bottom. That's already happening in some of the markets that had gone through steep price declines over the past few years, such as the area east of Los Angeles that went through a severe boom and bust cycle. Home sales there are now booming again, according to Chuck Whitehead, a Coldwell Banker real estate broker. "There's such a frenzy to get in before prices go up again," he said. "Buyers are more concerned about that than about getting the first-time homebuyers tax credit."
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Old 08-26-2009, 07:08 AM
 
5,462 posts, read 5,938,841 times
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This trend is only in the non-seasonally adjusted numbers. Adjusting for the fact that the current data comes from the peak of the buying season, the 10 & 20 city composite quarterly changes are still negative. On the plus side, they're much less negative than earlier in the year even though they are still down nearly 15% from last year.

The cheerleaders come out of the woodwork every spring to pretend that normal seasonal upticks are the same as a recovery. You can do a search on the reports about the CS reports from the summer of 2008 and find the same sort of "price drops are moderating" claims. It happens every summer. Here's one from Bloomberg written exactly a year ago :

U.S. House-Price Slide Eases, S&P/Case-Shiller Shows (Correct) - Bloomberg.com

"Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. house prices declined at a slower pace for the fourth straight month in June, signaling that the worst housing slump in more than 25 years may be starting to stabilize.

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 0.5 percent from the previous month, with nine areas reporting a gain compared with seven in May, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed. Prices were down 15.9 percent from the previous year, less than economists had forecast.

The figures add evidence that the drag on the economy from the housing slump is lessening, while officials and analysts predict that a rebound remains at least a year away. A private report yesterday showed that sales of existing homes in the past three months averaged the same rate as the previous period. "

"``Buyers are coming back into the market,'' Tom McCormick, president of Astoria Homes, said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week. ``Remarkably low'' prices do ``seem to be bringing people in off the sidelines.'' "

That being said, the worst of the price declines are probably over. That doesn't mean we're anywhere near the bottom. There's still several more years to go on a national level, possibly more in some of the later areas to get in on the fun.
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Old 08-26-2009, 10:28 AM
 
1,370 posts, read 1,991,931 times
Reputation: 1098
Quote:
Originally Posted by glenn_1000 View Post
Home price report: Case-Shiller shows increase of 2.9% - Aug. 25, 2009 The rebound may mean that potential homebuyers will have more of a feeling of urgency, afraid that they'll miss the market bottom. That's already happening in some of the markets that had gone through steep price declines over the past few years, such as the area east of Los Angeles that went through a severe boom and bust cycle. Home sales there are now booming again, according to Chuck Whitehead, a Coldwell Banker real estate broker. "There's such a frenzy to get in before prices go up again," he said. "Buyers are more concerned about that than about getting the first-time homebuyers tax credit."
Well he would say that wouldn't he - he's a realtor

With the wave of resets coming, I wouldn't touch property in CA, AZ, NV, FL for years.
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Old 08-26-2009, 10:33 AM
 
1,370 posts, read 1,991,931 times
Reputation: 1098
Quote:
Originally Posted by KCfromNC View Post
This trend is only in the non-seasonally adjusted numbers. Adjusting for the fact that the current data comes from the peak of the buying season, the 10 & 20 city composite quarterly changes are still negative. On the plus side, they're much less negative than earlier in the year even though they are still down nearly 15% from last year.

The cheerleaders come out of the woodwork every spring to pretend that normal seasonal upticks are the same as a recovery. You can do a search on the reports about the CS reports from the summer of 2008 and find the same sort of "price drops are moderating" claims. It happens every summer. Here's one from Bloomberg written exactly a year ago :

U.S. House-Price Slide Eases, S&P/Case-Shiller Shows (Correct) - Bloomberg.com

"Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. house prices declined at a slower pace for the fourth straight month in June, signaling that the worst housing slump in more than 25 years may be starting to stabilize.

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 0.5 percent from the previous month, with nine areas reporting a gain compared with seven in May, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed. Prices were down 15.9 percent from the previous year, less than economists had forecast.

The figures add evidence that the drag on the economy from the housing slump is lessening, while officials and analysts predict that a rebound remains at least a year away. A private report yesterday showed that sales of existing homes in the past three months averaged the same rate as the previous period. "

"``Buyers are coming back into the market,'' Tom McCormick, president of Astoria Homes, said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week. ``Remarkably low'' prices do ``seem to be bringing people in off the sidelines.'' "

That being said, the worst of the price declines are probably over. That doesn't mean we're anywhere near the bottom. There's still several more years to go on a national level, possibly more in some of the later areas to get in on the fun.
Good post.
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Old 08-26-2009, 01:15 PM
 
5,165 posts, read 5,327,362 times
Reputation: 1067
Quote:
Originally Posted by KCfromNC View Post
This trend is only in the non-seasonally adjusted numbers. Adjusting for the fact that the current data comes from the peak of the buying season, the 10 & 20 city composite quarterly changes are still negative. On the plus side, they're much less negative than earlier in the year even though they are still down nearly 15% from last year.

The cheerleaders come out of the woodwork every spring to pretend that normal seasonal upticks are the same as a recovery. You can do a search on the reports about the CS reports from the summer of 2008 and find the same sort of "price drops are moderating" claims. It happens every summer. Here's one from Bloomberg written exactly a year ago :

U.S. House-Price Slide Eases, S&P/Case-Shiller Shows (Correct) - Bloomberg.com

"Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. house prices declined at a slower pace for the fourth straight month in June, signaling that the worst housing slump in more than 25 years may be starting to stabilize.

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 0.5 percent from the previous month, with nine areas reporting a gain compared with seven in May, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed. Prices were down 15.9 percent from the previous year, less than economists had forecast.

The figures add evidence that the drag on the economy from the housing slump is lessening, while officials and analysts predict that a rebound remains at least a year away. A private report yesterday showed that sales of existing homes in the past three months averaged the same rate as the previous period. "

"``Buyers are coming back into the market,'' Tom McCormick, president of Astoria Homes, said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week. ``Remarkably low'' prices do ``seem to be bringing people in off the sidelines.'' "

That being said, the worst of the price declines are probably over. That doesn't mean we're anywhere near the bottom. There's still several more years to go on a national level, possibly more in some of the later areas to get in on the fun.
I love the fact the arrogant, cocky real estate agents who are lying through their teeth are just begging for business right now. Just 3 years ago they did not have a minute to talk to anyone now it is a new ball game. Yet they continue to tell us lies such as buyers do not care about the tax credit they just do not want to miss the bottom. HAHAHAHA- They know damn well the bottom is going to be here for a long time. The tax credit will not be. And that is a fact.
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Old 08-26-2009, 02:00 PM
 
Location: Seattle
1,366 posts, read 2,929,517 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cleanhouse View Post
I love the fact the arrogant, cocky real estate agents who are lying through their teeth are just begging for business right now. Just 3 years ago they did not have a minute to talk to anyone now it is a new ball game. Yet they continue to tell us lies such as buyers do not care about the tax credit they just do not want to miss the bottom. HAHAHAHA- They know damn well the bottom is going to be here for a long time. The tax credit will not be. And that is a fact.
Actually I think most of them believe it. Only a small percentage of them are smart enough to realize all of the stuff you mention in your post.
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Old 08-26-2009, 10:35 PM
 
220 posts, read 967,898 times
Reputation: 170
Sales are up year over year. You guys crack me up.

Record jump in existing home sales in July - Aug. 21, 2009

Sales of previously owned single-family homes were up 7.2% compared with June and 5% from July 2008, The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Friday. The monthly gain was the largest on record for existing-home sales, which NAR has tracked since 1999.
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Old 08-26-2009, 10:39 PM
 
220 posts, read 967,898 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by London Girl View Post
Well he would say that wouldn't he - he's a realtor
So he made up the numbers? Facts are facts, don't shoot the messenger.
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Old 08-26-2009, 11:21 PM
 
1,370 posts, read 1,991,931 times
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Not referring to the statistics, just to the words of a realtor - who has been handed a platform to speak from and who is (obviously) going to say what serves him and his industry best

From the same article (courtesy of CNN Money):

Home price report: Case-Shiller shows increase of 2.9% - Aug. 25, 2009

Quote:
Despite the upbeat report, Robert Shiller, one of the principle authors of the Case-Shiller index, expressed caution, pointing out that last year's turnaround quickly fizzled out.
In early 2008, prices were falling 3% a month. That improved to -0.5% a month in the spring, giving the impression that the market would turn around. But prices quickly started falling more steeply again. The same thing could happen again, especially with the economy still in a downspin.
"The really important things [affecting home prices] are unemployment and momentum," said Shiller, who is a Yale economist. "We have momentum, which is very important, but we also have high unemployment."
And, he added, "the government has not yet handled the foreclosure problem."
Increased bank repossessions could unleash of flood of new supply on the market, which could dampen prices. Plus, is also some indication of shadow inventory -- repossessed homes the banks are holding onto because they don't want to flood inventories.
That leads Stuart Hoffman, the chief economist for PNC Financial Services Group (PNC, Fortune 500), to conclude that it's still a good time to be a buyer.
"Given the tremendous amount of inventory, nearly a year's worth," he said, "it should continue to be a buyer's market for a while."
Shiller, too, is relatively optimistic despite being cautious. "I have found that momentum matters," he said, "and this is a sudden break in [downward] momentum. The [market] psychology seems to be changing."
When the Government is effectively paying people to buy houses it's time to be seriously concerned.

THE UNDERLYING FACTORS NECESSARY FOR A STRONG ECONOMY AND SUBSEQUENTLY A STRONG HOUSING MARKET ARE NOT THERE.

Yes, it's a "better" time to buy than 2008, or 2007, 2006 or 2005. If, that is, one is looking purely at the face value of property - and the Government's incentives.

But - to buy a home one generally needs a job. And a mortgage. And a decent down payment.

For many Americans one or more of these factors are missing.

And for those that already own and have seen their property values crashing and are facing huge increases in their mortgage payments within the next two years.......what will they do? Assuming that they still have jobs by then?

Last edited by London Girl; 08-26-2009 at 11:37 PM..
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Old 08-27-2009, 08:23 AM
 
5,462 posts, read 5,938,841 times
Reputation: 1804
Quote:
Originally Posted by glenn_1000 View Post
Sales are up year over year. You guys crack me up.

Record jump in existing home sales in July - Aug. 21, 2009

Sales of previously owned single-family homes were up 7.2% compared with June and 5% from July 2008, The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Friday. The monthly gain was the largest on record for existing-home sales, which NAR has tracked since 1999.
Yep, this is normal. In past RE cycles know that sales pick up many years before prices bottom. It's the continuous cycle of lower and lower prices which contribute to the increasing volume, so it's no surprise that there are more buyers now when RE is 15% cheaper than last year. At best it's a sign that price drops aren't going to get much steeper since sellers are finally coming to grips with the market at pricing at today's prices instead of those from the peak of the bubble.
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