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Yes I was recently reading an article that said 50% of boomers are concentrated in like 7 states or something. I know when I lived in Illinois, I had never heard of a "snowbird" before. I think boomers in Illinois stay put. The seasonal migration thing seems to be more of a west coast thing.
Lot's of "in season" cruisers, in my neck of the woods.
I don't see the housing market making a recovery until employment improves and housing inventory is depleted and that is a long, long way off. Also, there have been federal government supports for the real estate market such as the $8000 credit and keeping long-term interest rates artificially low. High and growing real estate taxes are another factor. In my area, local governments are raising RE taxes and transfer fees due to drops in local tax collections.
Finally, if renting is significantly cheaper than buying there is not much incentive for people to buy a house, especially in a declining market. Here in Manhattan, Connecticut, and Westchester you can rent a comparable house or apartment for about 1/2 the cost to buy it reflecting how out of balance housing prices still are.
My understanding is that we were previously in a bubble, where house prices were out of whack with incomes, and that this bust is a "correction." The market may over correct before it normalizes, but that the hope is for prices to remain more in-check with everything else.
Thus, the dollar amounts of the bubble peak will again be reached, but by the time they are the dollar will be worth a lot less (in other words, inflation will mean we will all have higher salaries, pay more for gas/groceries/insurance/houses).
So, maybe the last time the house was worth 200K the median salary in that area was 50K, and the next time it's worth 200K the median salary will be 75K (I am just making up those numbers but the idea is that same--the rest of the economy will have inflated).
I think it depends on where you live. NY seems to be doing okay. The majority of the homes I've seen have either sold or are in contract. A couple of homes in my area were sold at a good price but people who bought between 2005-2008 are under.
I went to an open house today and a family of three put an offer on an one bedroom. They did not consider the 2 bedroom because it was too expensive. I have heard of a family of 4 renting an one bedroom but buying. The one bedroom is a good price and it is comparable to rent in the area. I guess that is a good indicator.
we are not going back. recovery stimulus and a recovery is a lie. its a 10% contraction in the economy those jobs are gone. why do you think 4th go around on UIB? worse i think the debt has a ceiling we are approaching. get ready we guna step off the reef soon, dont buy a house car or take out any loans.
is it just me or everytime they announce a gas drop do you see more "for rent" signs on storefronts?
Beckycat, you live in Orlando and I do too. The thing about Orlando os that the economy and job situation is not well, and the supply is high and demand is low. I live in Avalon Park area and my house has dropped in value by $165k. We owe about $75k more than our home is worth. In an article, is said that Miami's average home price would drop down to a price of $142k. And you and I both know, as Floridians, that Miami prices are always higher than Orlando's.
If I were you, depending on how much you owe on it vs how much it's worth, I'd look into renting the house out if ya'll really wanna leave Orlando.
If you could break even, or are close, you may just wanna sell it for what you can and come out of pocket on the rest. We are in a big hole ourselves, we either rent it out, or let it go, we have no other options as we too wanna leave for NC.
Beckycat, you live in Orlando and I do too. The thing about Orlando os that the economy and job situation is not well, and the supply is high and demand is low. I live in Avalon Park area and my house has dropped in value by $165k. We owe about $75k more than our home is worth. In an article, is said that Miami's average home price would drop down to a price of $142k. And you and I both know, as Floridians, that Miami prices are always higher than Orlando's.
If I were you, depending on how much you owe on it vs how much it's worth, I'd look into renting the house out if ya'll really wanna leave Orlando.
If you could break even, or are close, you may just wanna sell it for what you can and come out of pocket on the rest. We are in a big hole ourselves, we either rent it out, or let it go, we have no other options as we too wanna leave for NC.
I hear ya. The problem is that we are afraid to rent our house out b/c of irresponsible renters. It's makes it that much harder when it's long distance. We had that happened to us when we moved to FL. The deal on the house fell through at the very last minute. We had to carry 2 mortgages for a year and half. We tried to rent but the renters didn't pay.
I hope for both of us to get to NC and hopefully a miracle recovery will happen so we can sell. We need to get enough for a downpayment there. That is the only thing that is holding us up. The value on our home has decreased about a $100K. The good thing is that we bought in the begining of 2004 before the big boom hit. We would have sold in 2007, but we had to wait for our daughter to graduate high school. If we only knew, we would have sold and rented temporarily. The only thing I'm worried about is we don't want to get outpriced in NC.
Does anybody think there is a chance for another boom in the near future? Or, hopefully, they have learned and this won't happen again.
There is absolutely 0% chance of another broad boom in RE in the next few years. Beyond that is anyone's guess, but history does not have anything positive to add to any forecasts longer term.
Don't try to catch a falling knife in trying to time a sale to a recovery. It is a losing proposition and the best path to financial ruin.
As another poster rightly pointed out you will not see prices fall much further in dollars, but value/price will erode in inflation adjusted dollars.
By spring 2010 we'll know the story as we will get a verdict on the prime mortgage ARM tsunami and we should see the condition of the markets which provide the $ for new loans as the government starts to pull liquidity.
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The value on our home has decreased about a $100K. The good thing is that we bought in the begining of 2004 before the big boom hit. We would have sold in 2007, but we had to wait for our daughter to graduate high school. If we only knew, we would have sold and rented temporarily. The only thing I'm worried about is we don't want to get outpriced in NC.
