More proof real estate is nowhere near a market bottom (9%, property)

[fairmarketvalue]

Originally Posted by Flat2MT

Hey FMV, when you get done patting yourself on the back for your financial/picking-the-right-neighborhood 'prowess' (you don't have to continually tell us all this - we are well aware unless it's for the edification of the newbies), how about defining the term?

It actually is, for the newbies, that is. And thanks, a good patting feels good, but my wife and others in my life deserve one too. That would include many, many friends, my partner in our accounting business, and so many, I can't possibly remember them all. I guess we just live in a "financially smart" area. And with nice homes, too, regardless of your "insistence" that the value of them has gone down. We are in, as already stated(another one for the newbies), long enough to have our grandchildren visit us! But I won't lie, if the value appreciates like all of our other homes did, in 10 years or so, we'll take the money and probably downsize. If not, no problem, in 20 years I'll only be 66. Even then, downsizing might be in our future, as is a second home someplace WARM!! That will happen whether we stay in this one we built or not. My wife loves this home, and the kids do too. Especially since we just finished the basement! Pat, pat, pat! OK, gotta go! Have a fund raiser for epilepsy to attend. Waiting to see what my gorgeous wife is wearing! To all you newbies, sorry for the somewhat arrogant post, but Flat knows what it's about!!

Originally Posted by theS5

FMV, you have been stating that housing, in your area, have been at bottom for quite some time. Others have come on with data showing that your statements are untrue. You reply with anecdotes. At this point, you must realize that you don't have any credibility. Why continue to make proclamations when it is evident that it is just wishful thinking?

OK, if you say so. Exactly why am I looking for credibility, on this forum, especially? That's almost funny. As if anything ANY of us say has baring on the nation. They are called opinions, and occasionally we all give information about where we live and the RE involved. Doesn't mean you have to believe it and agree with what I'm saying. And you have to be kidding me, the data given is an overall "general" outlook for the Chicago land/Joliet/Naperville.

[mathjak107]

when it comes to predicting markets, housing or interest rates we may as well debate next years weather and sports scores too...

lol actually do you know if you said every single day as a weatherman that it wasnt going to rain you would call it right 88% of the time.

the irony is a few companys track weatherman and their predictions. since just saying it wont rain makes you right 88% of the time all calculations have to start after that point..

do you know not one weatherman even got the 88% level.

[Flat2MT]

Originally Posted by fairmarketvalue

It actually is, for the newbies, that is. And thanks, a good patting feels good, but my wife and others in my life deserve one too. That would include many, many friends, my partner in our accounting business, and so many, I can't possibly remember them all. I guess we just live in a "financially smart" area. And with nice homes, too, regardless of your "insistence" that the value of them has gone down. We are in, as already stated(another one for the newbies), long enough to have our grandchildren visit us! But I won't lie, if the value appreciates like all of our other homes did, in 10 years or so, we'll take the money and probably downsize. If not, no problem, in 20 years I'll only be 66. Even then, downsizing might be in our future, as is a second home someplace WARM!! That will happen whether we stay in this one we built or not. My wife loves this home, and the kids do too. Especially since we just finished the basement! Pat, pat, pat! OK, gotta go! Have a fund raiser for epilepsy to attend. Waiting to see what my gorgeous wife is wearing! To all you newbies, sorry for the somewhat arrogant post, but Flat knows what it's about!!



OK, if you say so. Exactly why am I looking for credibility, on this forum, especially? That's almost funny. As if anything ANY of us say has baring on the nation. They are called opinions, and occasionally we all give information about where we live and the RE involved. Doesn't mean you have to believe it and agree with what I'm saying. And you have to be kidding me, the data given is an overall "general" outlook for the Chicago land/Joliet/Naperville.

FMV, you deserve an OSCAR for your performance in 'Avoiding The Question - Part III'

Looks like you are going to milk this franchise for all its worth....

[Flat2MT]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Las Vegas has record level sales of resale homes. Inventory has dropped substantially over the last nine months. Prices have basically been flat for the last four months at around 40 to 50% of peak. The supply of foreclosures is well under a month. Sale price of foreclosures remain at 104% of list.

None of this makes any sense. So it is likely that we do not have a free market working.

Add this to the mix and it gets even more complicated....

Construction nears standstill - Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009 | 2 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun

[Bideshi]

Even if building continues, who will buy? There are millions of vacant houses already waiting for vandals and squatters.

[mathjak107]

interesting question about who will buy?... i have a theory , and its only my own theory so it may or may not pan out. try to follow me here because i dont have this totaly clear even in my own head but it does seem plausable.

we all use the word supply and demand like it was one word.. the fact is we are really seeing its not. i think im learning its actually three words, supply, demand , and greed , human nature has greed in the equation as no one likes to get left behind when others are seeing appreciation in something. think about what we just went thru in the financial markets.

trillions of dollars got pulled out of equities, many people pulled out and wont return. those that did stay basically just watched things drop.

trading volume was the lowest in decades. brokers waited for the phone to ring there was such a shortage of buyers. . but what happened? that record low volume means there are far less buyers out there... yet in order for a deal to take place you must have a buyer and a seller.

well here we are with a trillion dollars less in buyer money , the word stocks makes most of us want to vomit, and the markets took off in price on all issues just based on those few deals that were struck... the markets soared in some industries by over 100% . the broad markets soared over 60% taking everyone of us with it.

all of a sudden now your company has not traded in days yet the first time it does its trading higher then before just based on the few transactions that happened on those low volume days around you. your company didnt even trade or do anything different yet its worth more to someone looking to buy... and they are offering more because a few other trades went for more.

it always amazes me on holidays when they say trading volume is the lowest volume of the year and the entire markets soar or drop like a rock just from the few buyers and sellers that do partake.


THOSE FEW BUYERS AND SELLERS ON THOSE LOW VOLUME DAYS INFLUENCED THE ENTIRE WORLDS MARKETS THE SAME AS THE HIGHEST VOLUME DAYS.... im still scratching my head on this one folks....

i think what happens is as the economy gets better its the trickle down effect. there may be a ton of supply but a few deals go thru at a certain price in the area you are looking.

since home buying is such a personal taste thing unlike stocks if you really want a home and other homes around you have risen in the few deals that happened that increase trickles thru to most of the homes too even though they arent selling.

things are worth only what someone will pay for that exact home. buying a home is not only financial but emotional. if your wife wants that house she fell in love with and homes in that neighborhood did sell for more then last year then she will be willing to pay the seller more if hes asking more because of the rise on the few sales that did take place in the area. does that mean suppply got any less? nope. , its just your wifes demand got greater but supply may even have grown if more people put their homes up for sale. but your wife dosnt want those homes, she wants this home. are you with me here?..

we may not have such a lack of buyers as we think,.. think about if homes were traded like stocks where whatever a buyer wants to pay and a seller is willing to take the 2 are matched and the deal goes thru regardless of price..

no matter how great the demand or how little for a product buyers and sellers are matched every day in the futures markets. there is always a buyer for every seller because the prices float to a level that works no matter how high or how low.

ever hear of a day hogs or corn or wheat didnt trade because the prices were to high and there were no buyers? nope , if the prices match everyones perception of where they should be on that day the buyers come out.

its like old inventory in our business, we may not sell something for years and there really is no demand for it yet that inventory we have becomes elevated in value to todays costs just because other like items are now that price.. we have items we had no demand for , we have plenty of supply and the first time someone wants to buy it its based on what competitive pricing on other like items go for today.

make sense? will it pan out that way? again , beats me but its as good a theory in fourtune telling the future as anyone elses guess.

im even confusing myself here but i think bottom line is only a few transactions need to take place to influence entire markets of things regardless of supply. demand can be seperate from supply and greed helps propel things even further.


while there can be tons of supply on homes your wifes demand for that one particular house makes the total supply less of a factor. as long as any homes went for more the seller may be able to get more from your wife .

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

Also our rent includes heat, water and garbage collection....

just pre-bought fuel for the house 1500.00 bucks, water is 220.00 a year , garbage collection 270.00 a year.... i wont list all this stuff but these are all the things most homeowners fail to include over a lifetime of calculations of what their true costs of housing are

I rent out a couple of my vacation homes by the week and I track every nickel as they are write-offs. When you roll-up all of the expenses, I never get use to how much it takes to "feed" these properties.

I'm not talking wear-and-tear from renting it out; that's not the bulk of the outgoing dollars. It's those $10, $50 $200 type profit leaks that add up to to be a big number (with or without renting).

It's an eye opener once you roll it all up (every single dollar over time) to operate a home.

[mathjak107]

yep it sure is.... i swear my home knows everytime i get payed

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

you say that like you know.... you should be very wealthy being able to predict how things will play out... ..... i dont see bubble levels coming back anytime soon but i wouldnt bet the ranch on how anything plays out... just when you think you know whats next something not even on the radar yet will alter that outcome.

the chicken littles said we had 5 or 6 years to hit 10,000 on the dow ever again too.

Mathjak. Interesting contributions to the thread. I appreciate your view point. Thanks for spending the time to give your perspective.
The thing that makes me pessimistic about housing is we are in uncharted territories and there are so many forces that are volatile. Our government painted doom and gloom last October and again in Late Feb. Note: it wasn't just Glen Beck.

I don't see a lot of positives that show housing on it's way up and I do see a lot of looming negatives. As you know, you cannot time markets. Personally, I'm willing to wait and pay more and therefore I'm on the side lines to buy another home. But my gut tells me there could be more troubles pushing certain segments of housing market down even further.

There have always been pending problems on the horizon that give rise to fear mongering and doom-and-gloomers. But this time in our history is c-o-m-p-l-e-t-e-l-y different (in my view anyways).

The lower end housing is probably at the bottom or near the bottom. But then again I could picture sh_t hitting the fan as the mother of all storms might develop. As you pointed out accurately, don't bet the farm that housing won't go up to bubble levels; (think inflation). I'm also saying, our economy could tank.

[mathjak107]

i say the same thing about my other investments too.. but you know what? once again my long term averages all seem to work out the same no matter what the long term time period