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Paraphrasing - things won't be quite as bad in the future because many of the riskier loans have already defaulted prior to their scheduled recast / reset date. That's not great news, but it could mean that some of the potential bad stuff projected to happen in a year or two has in part happened already.
By the end of 2010, I think people will be surprised to find the worst has passed (as far as falling property prices).
By now I think it should be clear to all the path the Fed has chosen is reflation with accepted risks of high inflation or hyperinflation. In a best case scenario, we have a tepid recovery with strong government support in the housing market to keep rates from skyrocketing and prices from further freefalls.
Forward looking indicators all point up, so even if we're facing some serious headwinds, it'll be early Q3 before we start to see them (assuming they begin to turn down as stimulus effect wears off), and potentially into 2011 before markets start to feel the true impact.
All bets are off for 2011, IMO. If we don't have serious inflation by the fall I suspect we most certain will through 2011.
As usual, we'll see.
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