The fallacy of the test “Try it. If it works, it is true” (Buddhists, soul)

[Hueffenhardt]

Many religionists believe that if they try something and it works then it denotes that something is true. Buddhists lean heavily on it. Mormons do too, as do New Agers.

Scientific research methods are designed to help scientists not be fooled by that fallacy. Let's discuss a few reasons why something might not be true, even when we try something and we get the desired outcome.

First, correlation cannot establish causation. For example, let's say these two events are correlated (i.e., they both occur in relative proximity), praying to find keys and finding the keys. Let's say that this has happened on a number of occasions. We cannot infer based solely on correlation that the praying caused us to find the keys. We might find the keys everytime whether or not we pray. Certainly there are people who don't pray (like me) who lose keys and then find them. Or, it could be that some third variable also co-occurs with the first two events, such as thinking about where you might have left the keys or you might actually look for the keys everytime you pray for them and find them. This third variable might actually be responsible for the event of finding the keys. And it could be that some other variable is responsible for causing both the praying and the finding of the keys. I can't think of one for this example, but there could be other examples in which this is the case.

Personal "tests" of a principle using do not include an adequate control group. In other words one condition in which you tried the procedure and one in which you did not. It is not enough to try each condition only once or twice as you would be taking advantage of chance. The relationship between procedure and outcome across both conditions needs to happen often enough to show that the relationship is not likely due to chance. And one needs to be on guard to make sure that you are not sabatoging the experiment by making the results what you want them to be (i.e., trying harder in the condition you want to succeed). Scientists prefer to use large sample sizes in which the subjects are unaware of the hypothesis to increase the reliability of the results.

Also, humans are very prone to remember the hits and forget the misses. For, example, they remember when their dreams have some things in common with future events, but forget all the things their dreams got wrong.

Furthermore, even if what we are doing does work, we may take the wrong lesson from it. For example, it may be that prayer actually does help us find our keys, but not due to supernatural influence but because prayer calms our minds and our calm minds are able to remember better where we left the keys. Native peoples might believe their tribal shaman has magical powers because everytime they have a headache, he gives them a special herb and their headache goes away. It might be that the herb is a natural (not supernatural) medicine or it might be that the shaman uses the persons belief to produce a placebo effect.
In summary, just because something works when you try it, it does not mean that you have established that the procedure causes the outcome, that you will get reliable results everytime you use the procedure, or that the implications that you take from the successful procedure are correct (i.e., praying works therefore there is a God, or snake oil cures broken bones, etc).

The whole idea of "this works, therefore it must be true" is how superstitions, lucky charms, and rituals like rain dances or human sacrifices are born. Some superstitions are harmless, but I am interested in discovering and understanding and teaching true causal relationships. It bugs me when people try to persuade others that something is true because it worked for them when their results may have nothing to do with what they so confidently teach.

I have no problem with people sharing with others what has worked for them in the hopes that maybe it might work for others as well. I would just caution against presupposing a causal relationship where none has been established and especially against using your fortunate results to promote some supposed truth that is in no way implied from your psuedoexperiment (i.e., that god exists because whenever you pray to him you find your car keys; or, that Mormonism is true because you often feel a good feeling when you read the Book of Mormon, etc).

[TRANSPONDER]

Good post. What works ignores why or how it works and whether it really works or only appears to. Human perception is fallible. We are very good at fooling ourselves, especially if we are greatly longing to fool ourselves over some particular issie.

That's why the scientific method with control and double - blind control or whatever is neccessary ahould be applied before we can draw conclusions about what can be taken as true.

[Sir Les]

Originally Posted by










The whole idea of "this works, therefore it must be true" is how superstitions, lucky charms, and rituals like rain dances or [B

human sacrifices[/b] are born. Some superstitions are harmless, but I am interested in discovering and understanding and teaching true causal relationships. It bugs me when people try to persuade others that something is true because it worked for them when their results may have nothing to do with what they so confidently teach.

I have no problem with people sharing with others what has worked for them in the hopes that maybe it might work for others as well. I would just caution against presupposing a causal relationship where none has been established and especially against using your fortunate results to promote some supposed truth that is in no way implied from your psuedoexperiment (i.e., that god exists because whenever you pray to him you find your car keys; or, that Mormonism is true because you often feel a good feeling when you read the Book of Mormon, etc).

Hay there...some good ideas in Your post....Thanks for them.

I would like to say that In the world we are now in...We have human Sacrifices being made in those wars they created ...
So listen to what the SPirit is saying here...And the taxed hand is supporting the Evil that is making the condition arise, so that a need for this Human sacrifice takes place...and it has been going on for a long time...
The cause and effect are not questioned!...but they put their propoganda and brainwashing into play...to tell people who to hate, and who to like...and with appluse they make their evil seem righeous...and the others they point out and paint criminal as the Evil ones, which they helped make...
The outcomes are always the same...But over looked, and or dismised as natural disasters!!!

I would say even if the victorious in these wars of no meritable truths come of age, they are plagued with all kinds of sickness, plague, pestilences, and a whole slew of natural destasters ranging from heavey storms, to earth shalking events, to even volcanic plumes of costic gasses and firery debris...and death on a wide scale of the animal kingdom, and the crops fail...that feed the masses who support the Human Sacrifices being asked for, and being thanked for!

Now we can draw lines?...and say..without any doubt...that Killing our neighbours because of X...when we could make peace, and share...is by far the most outragious error this world is making.
Not to mention the MONEY as a IDOL of Life which has all kinds of symbolic supertision tied to it...if you look and see with open eyes, what this thing is doing on the other side of its promise.

It creates:
poverty, destitution,crime,sickness,laziness,greed,gultany, despare,stress,hatred,immorality, sexual ludness and prostitution, lies and liars...all the evils or sins to get it, and live under its charms...and then the final but most important one DEATH!
And there are many ways death comes....to those who use it.
Now the second thing that this makes...the economic system and industrial nightmare that is now polluting the planet and all life, for profits and Gains...to keep everyone in it..they make debt...and defile them to the outcomes they are now pondering...Health care!...at a very high price!...and the bent pharmicuticals needed to live in this system of bent lies, that do not save anyone or make a better world, a healthier world..a tame world, a safe world.

I wonder why people continue to hold such a thing dear and near to their hearts , as a necessity.

Sharing everything would be more friendly towards our enemies...Giving aid, and food, seed, and knowledge and the means to make thier own life, would be a greator endeavour than just tossing money at the problems in the world they have created.

In effect the Eden Multiplication into Edens under God (Laws)(rule) make peace, health, and happiness for all life!

It shows that the system under money creates the opposite....a mad house of crime, warlords, bikers, gangs, police states, and a bent justice system trying to make order out of the disorder they serve!
And it is costing them big bucks, so they say...to warrent and surpress the natural outcomes of using the IDol told not to by God.

So if we look at the cause and effect...and draw lines to the outcomes...and we know what has been told to do, and not to do...and we see the results of both....and this result is constant and always showing...then the theory or myth, superstition, becomes true constantly, we can surmise that it is factual until it is disproven by the same methods to the contrary!

That is how science makes their statements and resolves their problems.
And that is in most part how this world works...it is logical, it is under certain rules of law that govern over it...it is based on quantum machanics, Atomic, nuclear, subatomic, fractals,string and other dimensional estates...it is by far a grand design of complex and unionized entities to make the whole thing work in some cases to our benefits.

Now we can bend the rules...but why would anyone want to?
If it is wild...tame it....and you cannot tame it with guns and bombs...infact it is showing that it has possesed the ones doing the killing making them wild instead of the other way around.

So when God says Do not Murder...we should listen...for the curse of Cain is a real threat of punishment God will send onto those who do the killing!
And that Goes for WAR of any kind...no matter who is right or who is wrong...there is always a punishment for the crime of Murder/Killing another human being.

Now we can say that the above is true...if we take all the natural woes of the past 10 years since the WTC 9/11 event...which was a Godly attack on a monument/ alter of death.... told not to make more important than he...doesn't matter who did it...it was done, and all the things used to do it had a reason behind them being used....the planes are the pollution devices being used to pollute the world and all life..to make them all sick.
The building was a altar of all life being transfered into False profits and gains (wealth) Death.
And the aftermath...the auto industry, and all combustion devices, that use the DEAD BLOOD OF THE LIFE TAKEN, TOLD NOT TO TOUCH BY GOD...(Fossil Fuels) are being sold to the consumers who also help pollute the planet and all life....mindlessly true!
And the fraud in business, and BANKERS and the system based on MONEY (IDOL) told not to make or have before God!

So we know what exactly we are doing, and where we are in the world with God....if we draw lines straight to the truth of it!

And in the Bible it is mentioned about the Wedding, and the ten brides maids...five turn back to the seller for oil for their lamps..and five enter the tent of wedding...
Well the five who turned back , decided to make war, and take the control of the oil, so they could have it cheaper, rather than pay the pipper (Saddam) what he wanted.
Whom they employed to make war on Iran with weapons banned by the Genieva convention...But Saddam didn't listen to them and make war on Iran...and he used those weapons on the kurds, ...
Making him a rouge agent...and non compliant to their deviant behavior or command to kill...So they made a way to kill him!...and we see that the method is fraudulent...lies, and liars said ...and done....to kill/ make war...and the lies are telling signs that show their real worship goes to!...$ATAN for all lies come from him.

Now we see the snake...and the snake made war..for no real good reason!
And brought the whole world into a great sin!
And then a second sin with Afghanistan and Poppie and Marijuana Growers....Killing who? ah they say Al Qeada...but kill Talaban....why?...control of their trade...to wipe out anyone putting back EDEN or making EDEN in any way....oppressing and sanctioning a nation into poverty and destitution..so they fight back...and there you have the formula in making terrorists arise, so there is always something to War on, and Kill or Murder...it is not their fault they come into being...it is the ones oppressing thier trade, and people from making a living with the givens God Gave us all!
Lies, liars, and the stupidity of it all...equals Murder!
And that is a commandment broken...and so the punishment is the curse of Cain on all those lands who participated in this shameful and discusting act of violance, and murder!

Now you can say this is not true, it is myth, superstition,,,etc etc//
But it is happening none the less..and it is most exacting and persistantly a thorn of many pains and realizations to the whole world!

Cause And Effect...it is a reality!

[victorianpunk]

Translation: The human condition is irrelevant, your own life is unimportant and all that is required is that you mindlessly obey the doctrine of Reason, Logic and Rationalism.

Bull. Sorry, but the brainwashing of Empiricism and Rationalism is was subjected to in public schools was washed away the moment I read about that one dirty word the Rationalist hate to hear: Existentialism.

There is absolutely no evidence that a Rationalist existince will make me happier, and I have decided that being happy without impeding on anyone else's happiest is the point of life. So, I abandon reason and Rationalism in favor or following my heart. It is not true if it "works" (whatever that means) but truth rather is relative to the individual...that is another word the Rationalist hate to hear, "the individual". For Rationalism, there is no "you" or "me" but rather "us". It is all about collectivism. Everyone abiding by the same "binding laws of reason" and no one discovering for themselves what does and does not work for them as an individual.

That is one of the many things the Rationalist have in common with religious fundamentalism: no concern for the individual, but only for enforcing the rules of the supreme power and the supreme doctrine. For the fundamentalist, the supreme power is God, the supreme doctrine is the Bible, and the individual can and should be trambled under it's supremacy. For the Rationalist, the supreme power is the natural laws of the universe removed from any and all spiritual dimensions (thus, no Natural theology) and the supreme doctrine is the scientific method and reason and logic and all that crap and the individual can and should be trambled under their supremacy.

For the Existentialist, the individual is the ultimate aim of the individual, and the individual can and should be allowed to find his or her own way to it's bliss within it's self, both fundamentalism and reason be damned.

For the Rationalist, the individual experience is pointless because the goal of life is not for an individual to decide, but it is already decided: to follow reason and logic. Hence, the whole "what works for you is not always true" line.

Let us keep in mind, that just like when a fundy starts going on about Jesus and the Bible that Christianity is just one religion among many. At the same time, when a Rationalist goes on and on about the scientific method and Reason and all that stuff, that Rationalism is just one philosophical school of thought amongst many.

For every Ludwig Feuerbach and Daniel Dennet, there is a Soren Kierkegaard and a Fyodor Dostoyevsky, and there is no reason why the former is in any way superior to the latter.

In other words:

The Religious Fundamentalist: "IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOU FEEL OR WHAT YOU EXPERIENCE! ALL THAT MATTERS IS THAT YOU REMAIN A SLAVE TO GOD!"

The Rationalist: "IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOU FEEL OR WHAT YOU EXPERIENCE! ALL THAT MATTERS IS THAT YOU REMAIN A SLAVE TO REASON AND THE MATERIAL WORLD!"

The Existentialist: "Man, if it feels right to you in your gut, go for it! Be a slave to no one or no nothing."


Which one of these ideas sounds more appealing?

[Sir Les]

God is the natural = The Garden of EDEN!
God is the universe = God created the heavens and the Earth!
God is the truth = it is established Law of the land, and laws of humankind to do,and fulfill, and live by them all.
God is supreme = for he knows all things and is in all timelines!

Now those who tend and keep these things God made Good and blessed...are his !
But in that understanding...Humans have made an Engraven idol called Money.
And the collective amounts called wealth.
What is it that this Idol and collected amounts posses that is of any meaning to the natural eye of God or his children or his people?...especially when he says not to have this kind of thing in play in our lives....for if we do we are subject to : breaking of commandments:
Exodus 20:1-21...no other god's or demigods before thy God the father....do not make a idol, no Engraven image of anything above or on, or below the earth in likeness, and or worship it...as anything important to have or made to have in our lives....

So here is something Christ was dealing with...kicking out the idea of money from his fathers house!

If we follow...we should do in likeness of the son!

But they murdered him to keep things the way they were...and mislead the people down a very dark path of constant warfare, destruction, pains, and sufferings, sickness, peslulences, and constant death...all while making humansacrifices....

Now today...they war on Plants and plant growers...saying they are criminals...are they not doing what God asked us all to do in the begining of the bible?????...tend and keep the Garden?

It is noted on my TV of late...and for some years pryor to today...GLobal warming..that the eco systems of the world are being polluted with all kinds of vile...for profits and gains in what estate?

It would be prudent of us all to stop and rethink what the industrial madness/ and the comsumers are doing to the planet we need healthy to be healthy.....and thus the tending and keeping of it in a good state of being is also being mindful of those Givens God gave us all to sow and grow, and help connect the sun to the Earth, to filter the waters, and the air...and at the same time produce seeds for those who eat of it., and compost and mycelliums for the soil to rid the sickness from the lands...it is all Good according to my God.

So to say these people who Grow and trade a plant God said was Good, are criminals is Just wrong!
And to oppress those who do Grow it, again another error is being made...and the results are pissed off people!...and if you **** off enough people, and make them destitute...well you get warlords, terrorists, bikers, gangs, thugs, and the sort of family ties..joining together and making the system stink...because the system is unfare, unjust, and anti God...anti Christ...and Anti Eden!

Now look they are murdering people because they Grow Marijuana and poppies....wonder why?

So being a Slave To GOD...is in essence making a better world order for all life!..and is a giving and we do our part in it...it can then be eternally made good...and constantly in motion!...living in it..sharing and making more of it...so life abounds in abundance!...
And that is by far more important than the self...it is selfless!
And we know sharing is a better way to live all around the table...it stops creating problems..that the Idol seems to make!
And if we employ all our efforts to this Eden principle, SINLESSLY and make more, and more of them under God and his laws,precepts, and covenants....this world would eventually will want to spread to new ones!...multiply the givens!!!!!
And with all life in toe that is compliant to God and his laws......God could help us make new worlds !
As Jesus has already mentioned that God has many mansions!
So God did not stop here in his desire to create...he went on doing it..without us!..but with the promise of his return to see how we are managing this small part he gave us to take care of..according to the Bible, or not...to tend and keep is by far the best solution for this estate!

And from my observations....it don't look too Good if wars are being fought today based on lies and liars testimonies!
Breaking every commandment, precept, and covenant God made with all life as their unspoken moto!

So it is not only with us, but with them other life forms the laws and covenants, and promises stand....and if we pollute their natural enviroments, devalue them to the price on a can, no poor person can afford, and a expiriey date...what is our worth to God?...same measure given is the same measure recieved?....

Jesus spoke of an end...expirey date unknown till it happens!

Cause and effect....

[Thomas R.]

Some of this is good, but I don't think it's as persuasive or convincing as you desire.

If there are unknown variables and human fallibility to deal with why does a larger sample size and controls avoid that? Why wouldn't it just reduce the problem instead of eliminating it? Or for that matter why must it even reduce the problem? Perhaps some unknown variables are unaffected by sample size or perhaps human fallibility is such a core matter that no human method can fully effect it.

If I let go of a ball that I have dangled from a building, and it falls, this is just an anecdotal event. The correlation of the letting go and falling has not proved anything. I would need to have hundreds of people do it multiple times. Even then has that proved the matter? Not really because perhaps if done a quintillion times the ball will just magically float. It seems unlikely but who knows? So what we're left is "there appears to be some force, which we'll call gravity, that usually causes objects to fall."

Or with Relativity. That the Planet Mercury appeared where Relativity said it should could be "nothing more" than when you pray for car keys and there they are. Tombaugh found Pluto where his calculations said it should be, but his calculations were wrong as I recall. Maybe it's just a big coincidence and some Aether theory would have found Mercury just as well. Sure there's the discrepancy with the atomic clocks that indicate the "rate of time" changes predicted by Einstein, but so? Correlation doesn't mean causation. Maybe the rate of time changed because in outer-space the aliens alter time or there are magical gremlins or atomic clocks work funny in space or something else.

To some degree or at some point you have to basically dismiss complicating influences and the limitations of "correlation not causation" if you want to learn anything. The "believer" or non-scientist may have a standard you feel is too low, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily an arbitrary and irrational standard.

And that should be all for now.

[TRANSPONDER]

Not quite.

If I were paranoid enough I would be suspicious that theists, unable to get evidence to support God - belief and being unable to discredit the findings of science, are now pushing the 'who knows anything' ploy as much as possible.

It is certainly the case that false correlation is a fallacy. It is so far from a reasonable correlation that an increase of tornadoes is related to the decrease in royal heads of state that such would need some pretty good evidence to be even considered a valid suggestion.

But an increase in skin cancer coinciding with an increase in sunspot activity looks a bit more likely, given that we know a bit about the effect of solar particles that reach here. But that needs to be proven.

Gravity of course can hardly be denied. The idea that everything is held down because of some 'force' is a reasonable one. That we are all being pushed down by the hand of God raises too many theological questions. True, the idea of gravity being some kind of magnet never really seemed too convincing to me as a kid because it worked on everything and it even seemed to affect planets millions of miles away. The pressing down of the hand of Einstein's God (curved space-time) explains much and when the predicted effect was observed, there seemed little reason to doubt that we have made progress.

I have read objections to the discovery of Neptune and Pluto on the grounds that the calculations were wrong. I should leave that to the mathematicians and historians. The main thing is that more distant planets were suspected and found, whether by luck or judgement. Correlations, whether discovered by expectation or serendipity can be checked. That's what science does: it checks hypotheses and keeps checking until a correlation, hypothesis or discovery is verified. Suppositions, hypotheses and guesses, until they can be verified, have to remain in the pending trays of unproven ideas.

Try it and see whether it works. Eating limes cured scuvy. For all we know it was because it pleased the god of limes who cured the scurvy of anyone eating them. Nobody suggested that at the time because the correlation between eating the stuff and not getting scurvy seemed enough. Almost without thinking they were applying Occam's razor which is actually pretty basic logic. Now we know more about why and the need to postulate the goblin Limofubkin is gone if it was ever there.

It is possible that Buddhist monks can prolong their life but, if so why? Because being religious earns extra years? Because of the lifestyle and diet? The former throws up again theological problems so the latter seems more reasonable. It still might be a false correlation, but we won't know until science can prove it and show why.

Upshot is that trying to chip away at the pretty solid edifice of science with the nit-pick of 'how can science be sure' is only going to work if science cannot be troubled to explain its methods. so I guess it's down to us.

[Thomas R.]

I think we can actually "know" things through science, within limits, but the kind of skepticism indicated has to be limited in some way if we're going to do so. That you can't 100% rule out unknown bizarre forces to explain certain things doesn't mean I think we should just give up as should have been clear. In most cases we can dismiss certain things as so incredibly unlikely they're not worth thinking about.

So Science creates the most likely explanation for various phenomenon. Due to its nature and to history it's been shown to be the best way to explain repeatable natural phenomenon. However science isn't "True" in some absolute way or some "Quest for Truth" that can basically stick its tongue out at everything else.

Anyway the other irritating quality of the initial post is also it's tendency to believe, as victorianpunk put it, that one's experience is meaningless. One's experience is not science, but it's not meaningless. Not everyone believes only those things they feel they absolutely must believe because they believe a method has shown them there is no other probable choice. That "you" won't believe a prayer to St. Anthony finds keys, as the initial example seemed to imply, is fine. The idea is not "proven" and maybe I don't even care if you believe it or not. This doesn't make it unreal or purely naturalistic. It is not so much a "false correlation" as "a correlation I have not proven true." Now from a scientistic mindset "not proven true" or "not verified" might be the same as false, but there's no reason I or anyone else must have that mindset. I have considered it several times, I'm pretty sure I've read college level science since before High School, but have rejected the notion.

There's as indicated a difference between "anecdotal events aren't proof" and "anecdotal events mean nothing at all" and I think many scientifically minded people do get mixed up on that. There are some cases where a person doesn't need the most solid proof possible and where waiting for it is counterproductive. There are also cases where people are saying things of their own life and really don't care if you or the OP are convinced of anything. Which leads to the other problem of this section. It seems like everyone assumes everyone else is an evangelist. Maybe some people are just interested in discussing things without necessarily trying to convert or de-convert anyone. Maybe I feel certain prayer-related things are "proven" for me, but it really doesn't matter to me what you believe.

Or not. I didn't sleep that well last night, Zai Jian!

[TRANSPONDER]

Originally Posted by Thomas R.

I think we can actually "know" things through science, within limits, but the kind of skepticism indicated has to be limited in some way if we're going to do so. That you can't 100% rule out unknown bizarre forces to explain certain things doesn't mean I think we should just give up as should have been clear. In most cases we can dismiss certain things as so incredibly unlikely they're not worth thinking about.

So Science creates the most likely explanation for various phenomenon. Due to its nature and to history it's been shown to be the best way to explain repeatable natural phenomenon. However science isn't "True" in some absolute way or some "Quest for Truth" that can basically stick its tongue out at everything else.

Anyway the other irritating quality of the initial post is also it's tendency to believe, as victorianpunk put it, that one's experience is meaningless. One's experience is not science, but it's not meaningless. Not everyone believes only those things they feel they absolutely must believe because they believe a method has shown them there is no other probable choice. That "you" won't believe a prayer to St. Anthony finds keys, as the initial example seemed to imply, is fine. The idea is not "proven" and maybe I don't even care if you believe it or not. This doesn't make it unreal or purely naturalistic. It is not so much a "false correlation" as "a correlation I have not proven true." Now from a scientistic mindset "not proven true" or "not verified" might be the same as false, but there's no reason I or anyone else must have that mindset. I have considered it several times, I'm pretty sure I've read college level science since before High School, but have rejected the notion.

There's as indicated a difference between "anecdotal events aren't proof" and "anecdotal events mean nothing at all" and I think many scientifically minded people do get mixed up on that. There are some cases where a person doesn't need the most solid proof possible and where waiting for it is counterproductive. There are also cases where people are saying things of their own life and really don't care if you or the OP are convinced of anything. Which leads to the other problem of this section. It seems like everyone assumes everyone else is an evangelist. Maybe some people are just interested in discussing things without necessarily trying to convert or de-convert anyone. Maybe I feel certain prayer-related things are "proven" for me, but it really doesn't matter to me what you believe.

Or not. I didn't sleep that well last night, Zai Jian!

A lot of good sense here. I'd just point out that science does more than "creates the most likely explanation for various phenomenon." It can demonstrate and sometimes prove beyond any practical doubt that what it has predicted and found is true, at least within the reality that we inhabit.

And maybe that's it. Science cannot know what strange things are out there and cannot even know what unimaginable Cosmos this little bubble of 'reality' of ours is bobbing along. All it can do is show that there is good reason to trust what it can show (in this world of ours)to be so. We do that all the time.

Even if we argue for unknown doubts, what else are we going to use? The fact is that, if science does not know, nobody does. If they did, why all the various disagreements? What, out of all the myriad possibilities, are we going to opt for?

Whatever we happen to like has an attraction of its own I suppose, but then no-one can reasonably say that the belief they have opted for is any more valid than any other. So what's all the religious squabbling about? No-one knows whether their religion or any other unscientific - let's use the term - belief is right.

a difference between "anecdotal events aren't proof" and "anecdotal events mean nothing at all" and I think many scientifically minded people do get mixed up on that.

Perhaps they do. Scientists are people after all, and they can sometimes get tempted into scientific dogmatism. However, the method itself does not do that. There is a sliding scale, shall we say, of reliabilty. Let me hazard a list

1. Phenomemon claimed but no evidence. (no credibility)

2 Phenomenon reported but no confirmation (little credibility)

3 Phenomenon documented but not verified. (insufficient credibility)

4. Phenomenon verified but unexplained. (scientific credibility)

5. Models proposed (hypothesis)

6. Model tested. predictions made. They pan out. Repeated tests work. Checks work out. (Theory becomes credible.)

7. Further supportive evidence, exhaustive tests. Peer - review and description. (Phenomenon becomes part of scientific knowledge.)

and 8, of course. Further information requires modification (if not total reconsideration) of the theory.

The alternative?

(a) get a belief.

(b) stick to it, no matter what anyone says.

Pick which you think your intelligence deserves.

If I didn't think that it really was important that the worldview of the world should be based on the soundest possible body of knowledge, I would not be spending so much time arguing about it. I don't mind what any individual wants to believe, but I do mind that what is considered to be a worldview should be a sound one.

[SoCalAngel2009]

Hmmm... well, it's like this... when you pray in earnest with all of your soul longings for God's Divine Love and you feel it coming into your soul... the knowledge that you have received it is obvious and it's not a hit or miss or merely a belief.