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Old 08-10-2011, 01:30 PM
 
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
22,685 posts, read 40,050,764 times
Reputation: 23830

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Not if you have 30-40 more years to live and interest rates so low.
Yes, spending 50+ yrs in 'retirement' does have its challenges. When I left the workforce in my 40's I had the equivalent of 96.91 yrs of "40-hr workweeks".

"Dairy Farm Boarding School" and working 3 jobs at a time really racked up my 'sell-able' hours.

Now to 'make-it-last' as long as I will... (that is subject to change, minute by minute).

I might be around to see a whole lot more carnage. It is incredible that we (USA) have put people in charge of making decisions who have never had a real job (much less have the skills to run a small business, but they manage the $T gov ). What happened to 'volunteer-civil-service' by successful business owners. Paid politicians where did that Idea come from... oh, I almost forgot... THEY make the rules
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Old 08-10-2011, 02:37 PM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 19,004,474 times
Reputation: 15649
Quote:
Originally Posted by StealthRabbit View Post
[b]
I am also offering decent returns (5-7%) to 'older' folks I know who are suffering low interest rate on their cash. It is a 'win-win' (I only do this on stuff I own free and clear and that has a SECURE and Hugely positive cash flow)
Stealth, what do you mean by this??
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Old 08-10-2011, 02:48 PM
 
6,447 posts, read 3,370,114 times
Reputation: 6639
We got out of mutual funds and S&P 500 stocks in 2007 for high yield CDs and first trust deeds on real estate. But some of those CDs are maturing in a few months and our income will go way down as yields are zip now.
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Old 08-10-2011, 02:59 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,956,950 times
Reputation: 6718
Whatever you do people - have a plan (you always should have had a plan - but it's especially important today). Because the volatility in just about all markets these days is breathtaking.

Also - if you've never heard of Bill Gross' "new normal" (he's the head of PIMCO) - start reading about it:

Bill Gross: You Don't Get The New Normal. - Forbes.com

And - if you've never been a day trader before - don't start now. And don't try to do things like picking up small lots of BAC on a whim. I am now listening to Jim O'Neill - who is the head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He is obviously a knowledgeable guy - and admits he doesn't quite know what's going on (he also seems pretty concerned). He also said GS trading is staying "close to home" these days (which - for traders - means net flat). Now if GS - with all of its traders and trading computers is staying "close to home" - that's a pretty good sign we should too.

As far as low interest rates are concerned - there are still pockets of value IMO. Like high quality munis. You can even still get 3% on a 10 year CD (although I doubt that will last for long since the 10 year treasury note is under 2.2% today - the drop in yields has been as breathtaking as the drop in equities prices). I do a small amount of lower quality stuff (junk) - but I'm a position trader in that market. This is not a good time to start working in areas like that if you've never been in them before. Again - don't do anything unless you have a plan.

And - if you don't have a plan today - now is a good time to start developing one. On my part - I have a plan. But it is certainly not 100% set in stone forever - and it is subject to tune-ups - especially when markets are behaving like they are today. Sorry to sound a little preachy. But all I can say is I've been working in the markets for 30+ years. And if I am apprehensive and getting headaches - reckon some of you out there are as well. Robyn
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Old 08-10-2011, 03:04 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,956,950 times
Reputation: 6718
Quote:
Originally Posted by StealthRabbit View Post
If you missed the blatant warning signs... hang on and sell the dogs on up days.

I suspect the markets will languish for quite awhile. The US economy is really pathetic since we don't really offer much in the line of a 'value-added-product' / or tangible wealth. We (USA) THOUGHT we could become a service economy, BUT anyone who travels internationally can vouch that many foreign countries (and airlines) are far more adept at delivering quality service than the USA (YMMV).

I recently rolled much of the stock portion of my portfolio into 'cash' to buy bargain Real Estate properties. While I have been a lifelong investor, I feel more comfortable with tangible assets and have a little more confidence in strategically buying smaller, high quality RE products. There is plenty of risk here too, but I haven't been axed in markets I know and watch carefully.

I am also offering decent returns (5-7%) to 'older' folks I know who are suffering low interest rate on their cash. It is a 'win-win' (I only do this on stuff I own free and clear and that has a SECURE and Hugely positive cash flow)
Are these older folks just giving you unsecured loans - or are their loans secured in any way (like by a mortgage on the property)? I don't care what you do - but I would never advise someone to give anyone an unsecured loan under the circumstances you describe. Robyn
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Old 08-10-2011, 03:38 PM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 19,004,474 times
Reputation: 15649
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robyn55 View Post
Whatever you do people - have a plan (you always should have had a plan - but it's especially important today). Because the volatility in just about all markets these days is breathtaking.

Also - if you've never heard of Bill Gross' "new normal" (he's the head of PIMCO) - start reading about it:

Bill Gross: You Don't Get The New Normal. - Forbes.com

And - if you've never been a day trader before - don't start now. And don't try to do things like picking up small lots of BAC on a whim. I am now listening to Jim O'Neill - who is the head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He is obviously a knowledgeable guy - and admits he doesn't quite know what's going on (he also seems pretty concerned). He also said GS trading is staying "close to home" these days (which - for traders - means net flat). Now if GS - with all of its traders and trading computers is staying "close to home" - that's a pretty good sign we should too.

As far as low interest rates are concerned - there are still pockets of value IMO. Like high quality munis. You can even still get 3% on a 10 year CD (although I doubt that will last for long since the 10 year treasury note is under 2.2% today - the drop in yields has been as breathtaking as the drop in equities prices). I do a small amount of lower quality stuff (junk) - but I'm a position trader in that market. This is not a good time to start working in areas like that if you've never been in them before. Again - don't do anything unless you have a plan.

And - if you don't have a plan today - now is a good time to start developing one. On my part - I have a plan. But it is certainly not 100% set in stone forever - and it is subject to tune-ups - especially when markets are behaving like they are today. Sorry to sound a little preachy. But all I can say is I've been working in the markets for 30+ years. And if I am apprehensive and getting headaches - reckon some of you out there are as well. Robyn
Robyn, welcome back, with your timely advice about a plan! I was wondering what you're thinking about the market and all these days.

All I know is that I remember reading a book written in the 50s (at a used bookstore a few years ago) - I dug it out of a dusty pile and began reading it, I forget its title, but it was something like The Conditions Leading to the Great Depression, and I never forgot two of the big developments just before the crash--land bust in Florida, and a wildly swinging market (back and forth, day to day). What is your take on the signs today?

If you, as a veteran market investor, are getting headaches, what do you see happening now? And, in terms of a plan, what kinds of plans can anyone make in this apparent chaos? (Please note, others, that I'm asking Robyn!).
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Old 08-10-2011, 04:30 PM
 
4,492 posts, read 4,754,903 times
Reputation: 9972
I'm holding and buying.
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Old 08-10-2011, 04:33 PM
 
4,492 posts, read 4,754,903 times
Reputation: 9972
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robyn55 View Post
Whatever you do people - have a plan (you always should have had a plan - but it's especially important today). Because the volatility in just about all markets these days is breathtaking.

Also - if you've never heard of Bill Gross' "new normal" (he's the head of PIMCO) - start reading about it:

Bill Gross: You Don't Get The New Normal. - Forbes.com

And - if you've never been a day trader before - don't start now. And don't try to do things like picking up small lots of BAC on a whim. I am now listening to Jim O'Neill - who is the head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He is obviously a knowledgeable guy - and admits he doesn't quite know what's going on (he also seems pretty concerned). He also said GS trading is staying "close to home" these days (which - for traders - means net flat). Now if GS - with all of its traders and trading computers is staying "close to home" - that's a pretty good sign we should too.

As far as low interest rates are concerned - there are still pockets of value IMO. Like high quality munis. You can even still get 3% on a 10 year CD (although I doubt that will last for long since the 10 year treasury note is under 2.2% today - the drop in yields has been as breathtaking as the drop in equities prices). I do a small amount of lower quality stuff (junk) - but I'm a position trader in that market. This is not a good time to start working in areas like that if you've never been in them before. Again - don't do anything unless you have a plan.

And - if you don't have a plan today - now is a good time to start developing one. On my part - I have a plan. But it is certainly not 100% set in stone forever - and it is subject to tune-ups - especially when markets are behaving like they are today. Sorry to sound a little preachy. But all I can say is I've been working in the markets for 30+ years. And if I am apprehensive and getting headaches - reckon some of you out there are as well. Robyn
Always liked Bill Gross.
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Old 08-10-2011, 06:25 PM
 
71,867 posts, read 71,942,576 times
Reputation: 49413
me too i love bill gross . that call that he made about dumping his treasuries was a huge loser for his fund but a huge winner for me. my long term treasuries have soared since he called the bond market wrong and for

that i thank him as many investors followed his lead and dumped treasuries . they all came running back as treasuries soared in a flight to quality once again driving up prices nicely for those of us who continued to hold ours.

im surprised at ole bill. doesnt he know things never ever play out the obvious. it was so obvious when bill sold that rates on bonds were a given to rise with the end of qe2 and the debt ceiling.
we all saw the same thing. thats why i said over and over in these forums things most likely wont play out the way we all see it. things not on the radar yet will alter the out come beyond all our beliefs..


well here were just above 2% on the 10 year, it was 3.87 when bill dumped them.


tomorrow ill sell off some treasuries,rebalance and bring the equities back up to my goal.

Last edited by mathjak107; 08-10-2011 at 06:52 PM..
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Old 08-10-2011, 08:39 PM
 
Location: Wisconsin
21,546 posts, read 44,093,768 times
Reputation: 15160
Mathjak, rebalancing is a daily task these days, isn't it? Good thing you have strategy.
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