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Old 08-12-2011, 02:55 AM
 
75,964 posts, read 75,388,252 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
he dumped them from all the pimco funds but the biggie is the pimco total return fund. thats the one i refer to.

it has nothing to do with being great.. heck i pick other peoples brains for my ideas and ill be the first to tell you that.. it has to do with just being proud of your accomplishments no matter what path you take to get there. its especially rewarding when you do some of it going against the herd and the noise.


News Headlines (http://www.cnbc.com/id/41990901/Pimco_s_Biggest_Fund_Dumps_Treasury_Bond_Holdings - broken link)


robbyn brought up a point i really have to explain.

the thing i try to get across to everyone in these forums in my posts is that the guru's like bill gross ,jeff gundlach ,bill miller , etc are very very smart .they can run funds and analyze issues like very few on the planet.
but when it comes to predicting the future its a coin toss no different than me, you or anyone else doing it .

people follow these predictions like sheep ,or they listen to these predictors on tv and the media and think they can actually tell the future.

they cant!... they guess and when they guess wrong you get burned listening to them and following their lead...

90% of my posts on all the forums i frequent are preaching about planning for un-certainty ,not ruling it out .

anyone who bets the ranch on anyone outcome will eventually fail. those that hide in cash or bonds or gold or stocks will eventually hit their waterloo by some economic black swan.

its not that im great, im not and thats the point. anyone can do it.. you just have to stop believing that the media and these guru's know whats next and put together a strategy you can stick to through thick and thin.

a strategy that lets you prosper when those events not on the radar enter the picture.

a strategy that wont leave you devasted if you or anyone else is wrong in their prediction.

a strategy so when things fall apart just as you retire you can still carry out your plans.

i spent my lifetime trying other peoples ideas ,my ideas and mixes of ideas and i know what worked for me. will it continue to work? good chance it will.


we have been having these terrible drops about every 3 years now, does your plan and stratagy figure that in????? most will say no yet thats the pattern now for over a decade.

i pass my thoughts (i have stolen from others) along every chance i can to others who are having trouble planning or failing at what they are doing . it may or may not be for them but the fact is they will never get hurt by it and its better than the lets just throw everything into a hodge podge of stock that mostly everyone does with their investments.. then they complain when they lose money from economic events that its rigged and everyones a crook. it never dawns on them that its themselves .


think about this . according to ibbotson if you did nothing but buy an s&p 500 index fund back in 1950 ,which in my book is a speculation and took out 20 to 25 year time frames at random right up until today, the worst you can find is an average long term return of 7% a year cagr over those years. thats the worst performance you can come up with for those time frame chunks. thats with no other asset classes and no other diversification even in stocks as the s&p 500 is only large cap..

if you lost money over a 20 year period guess what? its not the markets ,its you. its your plan . i thought that was a very interesting fact. because it really shows we have met the enemy and he is us.
in fact going back to 1925 there has never been a 20 year period you would have not made money.

its only when we put what we think or others think into these equations that we lose money and thats the entire point of my postings most of the time.

a good plan allows a retiree to go at least 15 years if they have to without selling any equities by utilizing other sources of income from cash,bonds,annuities etc to fill in that time frame until equities are mature and almost a lock they will be sold at a gain.
.
im sorry to say very few who hold equities through retirement have such a plan. an extended downturn and low interest rates generally kill off their goose laying those golden eggs well before its time.

Last edited by mathjak107; 08-12-2011 at 03:42 AM..
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Old 08-12-2011, 04:07 AM
 
30,538 posts, read 35,785,151 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lenora View Post
I reread the opinion and I still haven't a clue as to how my home state serves as a perfect example. Lack of aggregate demand? Did we read the same article?
Yes we read the same article and Maryland suffers from the same long term problem. A lack of aggregate demand to create the ability for a large number of citiizens and governments to generate the revenue to maintain their existing social network. Witness Baltimore and how dependent it is on other areas of the state for tax revenues to sustain their education and other programs. In fact there are those in Baltimore calling for regional government bonds because there ability to borrow on their own merit is shrinking. The number of people producing and the results of their production in many developed countries, states and cities is exceeded by their government spending needs. The only way they can maintain their social net is by increasing wealth transfer or borrowing more and more. Maryland has a tremendous wealth gap and it is only the high level of its overall income ( much of it from federal government borrowing) that keeps it out of serious problems. Thornton is a perfect example. The essence of the problem facing us and Europe is our inability to grow our economies fast enough to keep up with the spiraling increase in social programs. The solution to that for years has been increased taxation or borrowing each of which is reaching their limits. Increased aggregate demand can increase your tax base and resulting tax revenues without increasing your tax rate. When Millionaires leave your tax base goes down. When those in need of assistance increase your cost go up and Maryland has seen that. Our spending does not flow in unison with the ups and down of available revenues. It has tended to stay constant and the result is increased borrowing to make up the difference. Global demand is not increasing at a fast enough rate to keep up with global spending. The increase in demand is in the developing world and it is not increasing fast enough to sustain the world. Similar to Maryland where wealth is increasing in some counties but not fast enough to currently sustain the states need to service all of the state. Illinois is a classic example.

NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman on the topic and possible solutions.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/op...-together.html

Last edited by TuborgP; 08-12-2011 at 04:29 AM..
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Old 08-12-2011, 04:14 AM
 
30,538 posts, read 35,785,151 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas User View Post
You mean like 401's and IRA's? or an after-taxed account?
Either.
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Old 08-12-2011, 08:56 AM
 
Location: Northern Virginia
126 posts, read 141,036 times
Reputation: 323
Held and holding. Didn't do it in 2008, no reason to do it now. Don't panic and follow the lemmings!
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Old 08-12-2011, 09:04 AM
 
30,538 posts, read 35,785,151 times
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Aggregate demand is critical to assessing the long term value of your equity portfolio. Was the rise in the market just the result of excess liquidity from QE1 and 2? Is the actual market peak lower than many of us assume it could be? Are we now in a range that is normal minus the Fed Intervention and what is the domestic impetus to take it higher or should the focus be solely on global exposure companies? Buy and Hold yes but for what is POSSIBLY a question SOME might wonder.

Some of us will get portfolio modification advice tonight which could change our answer to a minor degree. MathJak for one.
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Old 08-12-2011, 09:19 AM
 
75,964 posts, read 75,388,252 times
Reputation: 53261
YES , it will be interesting to see what they will change in the newsletter models . its generally nothing radical.. a nudge here or there .

i cant even imgaine what they may do. on one hand i can see them maybe moving a little bit more in equities based on the drop.

on the other hand i can see them moving a little out getting a tad more conservative...

the good news is the changes are usually so minor that right or wrong they dont alter things much.
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Old 08-12-2011, 10:06 AM
 
Location: The beautiful Rogue Valley, Oregon
7,642 posts, read 15,846,989 times
Reputation: 10202
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
In the recent market carnage did you hold and maintain your portfolio as designed or did you fold and rush to safety?

Hold here!
I actively manage my portfolio (meaning I do a fair amount of trading) and I dropped to around 10% invested about the middle of July because of the political turmoil.

In the last day or two I've opened some some tentative starter positions, tightly stopped, and we'll see how they do. I have no problem with cash as a short-term position.

BTW: I don't consider selling "folding" - just rotating out to cash and waiting for a better opportunity.

Last edited by PNW-type-gal; 08-12-2011 at 10:38 AM.. Reason: add
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Old 08-12-2011, 10:43 AM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 19,414,944 times
Reputation: 15677
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Yes we read the same article and Maryland suffers from the same long term problem. A lack of aggregate demand to create the ability for a large number of citiizens and governments to generate the revenue to maintain their existing social network. Witness Baltimore and how dependent it is on other areas of the state for tax revenues to sustain their education and other programs. In fact there are those in Baltimore calling for regional government bonds because there ability to borrow on their own merit is shrinking. The number of people producing and the results of their production in many developed countries, states and cities is exceeded by their government spending needs. The only way they can maintain their social net is by increasing wealth transfer or borrowing more and more. Maryland has a tremendous wealth gap and it is only the high level of its overall income ( much of it from federal government borrowing) that keeps it out of serious problems. Thornton is a perfect example. The essence of the problem facing us and Europe is our inability to grow our economies fast enough to keep up with the spiraling increase in social programs. The solution to that for years has been increased taxation or borrowing each of which is reaching their limits. Increased aggregate demand can increase your tax base and resulting tax revenues without increasing your tax rate. When Millionaires leave your tax base goes down. When those in need of assistance increase your cost go up and Maryland has seen that. Our spending does not flow in unison with the ups and down of available revenues. It has tended to stay constant and the result is increased borrowing to make up the difference. Global demand is not increasing at a fast enough rate to keep up with global spending. The increase in demand is in the developing world and it is not increasing fast enough to sustain the world. Similar to Maryland where wealth is increasing in some counties but not fast enough to currently sustain the states need to service all of the state. Illinois is a classic example.

NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman on the topic and possible solutions.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/op...-together.html
I would think that the largest demographic now on the scene, the Boomers, would be supplying the biggest demand in terms of goods (so much disposable income) and services (esp healthcare and leisure), and for such things like new kinds of housing for this stage of life. Doesn't that huge consumer wave account for something??

(thanks for the NYT-Friedman link)
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Old 08-12-2011, 01:37 PM
 
30,538 posts, read 35,785,151 times
Reputation: 12690
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
YES , it will be interesting to see what they will change in the newsletter models . its generally nothing radical.. a nudge here or there .

i cant even imgaine what they may do. on one hand i can see them maybe moving a little bit more in equities based on the drop.

on the other hand i can see them moving a little out getting a tad more conservative...

the good news is the changes are usually so minor that right or wrong they dont alter things much.
I won't mention the equity fund that had a leadership change but they said a few months ago they were monitoring the fund. Could be them. Also a short term fund also not to be mentioned has taken a hit since the down grade and the bond funds may be seeing some different recommendations.
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Old 08-12-2011, 01:45 PM
 
30,538 posts, read 35,785,151 times
Reputation: 12690
Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
I would think that the largest demographic now on the scene, the Boomers, would be supplying the biggest demand in terms of goods (so much disposable income) and services (esp healthcare and leisure), and for such things like new kinds of housing for this stage of life. Doesn't that huge consumer wave account for something??

(thanks for the NYT-Friedman link)
Yesssssssssssssssssss and we are not doing our share and our falling apart sooner than expected. I have been following this for about a decade and I love Friedman. What you need to know is that I am a social moderate and a fiscal conservative. I have over the last decade plus moved more to the right and sustainability and affordability of what we are doing is a major driver of. Boomers are not investing in equities as we have discussed and efforts to get us back in the market have failed. For the last decade there has been a major question of what will happen when the boomers hit retirement and how will we behave financially. Would we sit on our money? Go very conservative with our money etc. The dot com bust and now the banking crisis along with this past week have probably chisled in behavior that 15 years ago would not have been projected. The 40 plus crowd has been hit hard by the recession and with home equity having crashed and folks burning their retirement funds to survive we are not the hope we once might have been. Yes healthcare we will have the need for but from the headlines we all know the question is who is going to pay for it. That goes right back for the need to see aggregate demand begin to take off. Leasure spending? Hey you are active in this forum and we are a very mixed bag as you know. My comments about buses to the beach have a rooted in this topic and the specific beaches that were being discussed.
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