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Old 08-14-2011, 02:29 PM
 
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buying a business isnt passive income... not something many would call retired.
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Old 08-15-2011, 02:25 PM
 
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Well holders the market is back above pre down grade levels again. Didn't take long. Don't know what tomorrow or the future will bring but I suspect holders are content that they did.
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Old 08-15-2011, 02:27 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
buying a business isnt passive income... not something many would call retired.
Not sure they meant for living in retiring but investment for retirement perhaps.
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Old 08-18-2011, 02:33 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ocdokie View Post
"It is still possible to get about 4.5% tax exempt these days in long term high quality state general obligation bonds - like Texas." Robyn55

Robyn, we inherited a bond from the Houston Airport Authority that's been paying 5% since 1998. Unfortunately for us, it's a callable bond and we were just notified that it's being called in about 10 days. I don't blame the bond issuer for wanting to refinance its debt at today's much lower interest rates, but it leaves us with a hole where we were receiving interest, without anything comparable to replace it with. (Although the 4.5% you mentioned sounds pretty darn good, considering the alternatives.) Oh well, them's the breaks!

By the way, what's your opinion of callable bonds, as opposed to those that aren't?
Hope I haven't answered this before. If you're talking about munis - nearly all that mature in > 10 years are callable A typical plain vanilla new issue might be a 25 year bond with 10 years of call protection. And that's ok by me. Even if it wasn't - it's not like I have a lot of say in the matter . I don't like bonds with various extraordinary call provisions - or make whole calls (although I have bought some on the secondary market on a selective basis when they were selling at nice discounts). FWIW - I only buy high quality GO bonds (mostly states) - and some high quality essential services revenue bonds. Both tax exempt and taxable (mostly BAB bonds) - the latter in my IRAs. Robyn
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Old 08-18-2011, 03:19 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
robbyn brought up a point i really have to explain.

the thing i try to get across to everyone in these forums in my posts is that the guru's like bill gross ,jeff gundlach ,bill miller , etc are very very smart .they can run funds and analyze issues like very few on the planet.
but when it comes to predicting the future its a coin toss no different than me, you or anyone else doing it ...
I don't believe the future is a random walk (although it can't be predicted with certainty - the way you can be certain we're not going to have a hard freeze in Florida in August - at least not during my lifetime ). There are always tea leaves - handwriting on the wall - etc. - suggesting the possible range of outcomes and their probabilities.

I do agree about not following gurus (or financial advisers for that matter). But I don't believe in scattering money around various asset classes in the hope that something sticks. I believe in learning about various asset classes and ways to invest in them. As well as learning about taxes (it is often easier to save a dollar in taxes than to make a dollar in the markets).

I believe in learning about one's personal risk tolerance. In fact - the most intelligent thing I've heard in the last few weeks is Gary Kaminsky (CNBC) stating repeatedly that if you can't sleep at night these days - your portfolio is out of line with your risk tolerance (I can understand no one sleeping in 2008 - because it looked like the whole financial world was going to blow up then).

I also believe - like I said - in having a plan. For example - my general plan with bonds is to buy and hold until maturity unless something happens to a particular bond with regard to credit quality. I have never sold a municipal bond. I have sold off corporate bonds over the decades when I saw their credit quality deteriorating. I probably sold my GM bonds 3 years too early - but better that than 2 days too late. My general plan with regard to things like equity and other type asset ETFs is to trade (using technical analysis). Also - I own nothing but fixed income in our taxable accounts (we use the income to live on). I have a lot of fixed income in our IRAs too - but all the non-fixed income assets are there as well. I never want to worry about the tax consequences of buying or selling.

Of course - no plan can be set in stone forever. For example - I have never before considered high dividend stocks. But that is something I am starting to explore now. I started to think about commodities a few years ago - but still don't like the investment options. There is always something new under the sun. And - although most of it is nonsense IMO - some of it isn't. OTOH - this is the retirement forum. And although I am only in my mid-60's - I realize that the older I get - the harder it is to learn about - and understand - new things

Now my plan is for me and my husband (and my father - because I manage his money as well). And everyone else's mileage will of course vary. But - in terms of any plan - know what you're doing - and - more important - why you're doing it. And - if you don't know - this is not a bad time to have at least some cash on the sidelines - and thinking a lot. Robyn
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Old 08-18-2011, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,938,980 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Yes we read the same article and Maryland suffers from the same long term problem...
I agree with your analysis of Maryland (I own Maryland state GO bonds). I think it is still a decent credit. But if Baltimore became a part of Washington DC tomorrow - I would buy more . FWIW - since Florida has no state income tax - it is easy to hold a very diversified portfolio of municipal bonds (don't have to worry about state taxes). Robyn
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Old 08-18-2011, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Aggregate demand is critical to assessing the long term value of your equity portfolio. Was the rise in the market just the result of excess liquidity from QE1 and 2? Is the actual market peak lower than many of us assume it could be? Are we now in a range that is normal minus the Fed Intervention and what is the domestic impetus to take it higher or should the focus be solely on global exposure companies? Buy and Hold yes but for what is POSSIBLY a question SOME might wonder.

Some of us will get portfolio modification advice tonight which could change our answer to a minor degree. MathJak for one.
Or the moves could be the result of high frequency trading or the abolition of the uptick rule - or a dozen other things. They are certainly breathtaking. Robyn
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Old 08-18-2011, 03:38 PM
 
Location: Lexington, SC
4,281 posts, read 10,743,032 times
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Why do some posters sound like a sales person trying to sell me something? I expect they think some here are naive.....tell me that is not so....LOL
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Old 08-18-2011, 03:42 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal View Post
I actively manage my portfolio (meaning I do a fair amount of trading) and I dropped to around 10% invested about the middle of July because of the political turmoil.

In the last day or two I've opened some some tentative starter positions, tightly stopped, and we'll see how they do. I have no problem with cash as a short-term position.

BTW: I don't consider selling "folding" - just rotating out to cash and waiting for a better opportunity.
Do you trade on technicals - fundamentals - or seat of your pants ? I am for the most part technical - but will sometimes do those starter positions seat of my pants when we are in the middle of a big whoosh down (although - like you - I may get stopped out). As of today - I am down a bit overall on those starter positions.

BTW - I agree with you about the whole holding/folding thing. With things like bonds and CDs - I know (absent credit quality problems) that I will get my money back in X years. With other asset classes - there is no similar guarantee. Robyn
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Old 08-18-2011, 03:47 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,938,980 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
I would think that the largest demographic now on the scene, the Boomers, would be supplying the biggest demand in terms of goods (so much disposable income) and services (esp healthcare and leisure), and for such things like new kinds of housing for this stage of life. Doesn't that huge consumer wave account for something??

(thanks for the NYT-Friedman link)
Boomer demand for health care will be mostly through Medicare. And there are big cost control clouds in the sky when it comes to Medicare. And how can you buy a new house when you can't sell your old one?

I think a lot of boomers are scared to death that they don't have enough money saved to retire - and will be reducing leisure spending accordingly as they approach retirement. Robyn
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