Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamish Forbes
This is not correct. He does not recommend that retirees hold either stocks or long-term bonds for inflation protection. Rather, he recommends that retirees hold stocks only for bequests and luxuries.
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i agree he did say the above you posted but when you get to 35 you learn about what you can expect as an income level from bills method .
we see that without equities there isnt enough ooomph to generate the higher levels of income that other more traditional portfolios do --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
bills own view of his method and his own words: page 35
"below age 65- 2% is bullet proof."
"3% is probaly safe
4% is taking chances
above 5% you stand a serious risk of dying poor."
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the success of this portfolio above 2% has no better chances than the tried and true other methods that run at a 4% withdrawal and use equities. in fact the odds favor the traditional 4% swr having a 97% success rate which is far better than bills above just 2%.
the biggest risk is if you need more than 2% to live on or much below 65.
i would only give the thumbs up to bills method if you can live with only a 2% rate . otherwise all bets are off unless as he calls it the RP or risk portfolio is used to sustain his LMP ( liability matched portfolio.) then we start to approach a balanced portfolio again anyway.
i do fall in the catagory of needing 2% myself but to be honest i dont have enough faith in bills risk free portfolio to even want to try it, especially because im retiring at 62 . if i did do something like that i would without question add a risk portfolio and back to square one we go to the balanced portfolio .
ti wouldnt argue anyone following bills method at all if they can stay within the income demands or are already approacing 70 but the problem we have been discussing here is there are those who wont even risk bills method and thats going to be a risk failure for them if they are pulling income from it..
not our problem , we can only present the ideas and facts and the chances of their survival but as they say you can lead a horse to water but you cant make him drink.