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Old 04-20-2013, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Central Massachusetts
6,593 posts, read 7,088,475 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
I think its goig to be interesting just whathappens to investment once interest rates start to rise.Some see the same happening as after the 70's recssion when a whole genratio retil investors left the markets. One only has to look at FED actions and results to see its not driving markets like expected. Add the investment needs of boomers retiring just startign and many thigns can change.

Excellent point. If the government really wants to make an impact raising interest rates for treasury bonds will attract boomer money. That in turn will allow more money to be leant and re-invested into the economy.
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Old 04-20-2013, 02:56 PM
 
106,661 posts, read 108,810,853 times
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But bad point. Raising rates will make all the debt we owe have crushing interest payments by the gov.

Billions of our tax dollars will just go for debt service with higher rates.
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Old 04-20-2013, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,617 posts, read 21,488,316 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Rising rates don't cause inflation they tame inflation.

What will happen to investments when rates rise all depends on the part of the cycle we are in.

Rates rising now would be an indicator unemployment and the economy are doing better. That is a good thing for investments.

We are so far away from high rates trying to tame a hot economy as well as boughts of high inflation as to not be an issue in the near term.
Interest rates in any bond market where Bernanke and Company has fingers in the pot don't mean anything - because they're 100% manipulated by government intervention. Interest rates will move more in these pots in the future based on fed statements and actions than anything having to do with the real economy. Robyn
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Old 04-20-2013, 03:43 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,617 posts, read 21,488,316 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golfingduo View Post
Excellent point. If the government really wants to make an impact raising interest rates for treasury bonds will attract boomer money. That in turn will allow more money to be leant and re-invested into the economy.
Bernanke and Company doesn't give a flying f*** about "boomer money". It just cares about saving us from the perceived evils of deflation (and the perception - correct or not - that deflation is just around the corner). Robyn
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Old 04-20-2013, 03:44 PM
 
106,661 posts, read 108,810,853 times
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-The fed already said they are holding rates until unemployment and the economy looks better .

So you have the fed working the short end and so far investors around the world holding rates down on the longer end.

The worlds investors already proved they can wrestle the longer term rates away from the fed if they do not see things their way.

The famed inverted yield curve just before the recession was caused by the fed trying to raise short term rates while investors didn't think that was the right course of action.

The end result was short term rates were higher than long term rates.
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Old 04-20-2013, 03:49 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 84,472,986 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
The fed already said they are holding rates until unemployment and the economy looks better .

So you have the fed working the short end and so far investors around the world holding rates down on the longer end.

The worlds investors already proved they can wrestle the longer term rates away from the fed if they do notxsee things their way.

The famed inverted yield curve just before the recession was caused by the fed trying to raise short term rates while investors didn't think that was the right course of action.

The end result was short term rates were higher than long term rates.
The Fed is also working the long end as well to keep rates down.

Fed Extends Bond Buying Into 2013 - WSJ.com
The Fed said Wednesday, at the conclusion of its last policy meeting of the year, that it would enter 2013 with a plan to purchase $85 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities, part of a continuing attempt to drive down long-term interest rates to encourage borrowing, spending and investing.
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Old 04-20-2013, 04:12 PM
 
106,661 posts, read 108,810,853 times
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Even the fed can't fight the worlds investors.

If you remember when qe1 started the fed was buying securities to lower rates.

At first it spooked the bond market and investors wrestled rates upward driving them higher despite the feds action.

That is what drove bill gross to sell off those huge treasury bond positions he held as well as short treasuries.

That was one of his worst moves as once the bond market stopped fearing inflation from qe1 they drove rates lower..

Compared to the rest of the world the feds buying and selling is only a part.

There are years they bought as much as 60% of the treasuries issued but that rate is not sustainable.

Last edited by mathjak107; 04-20-2013 at 04:30 PM..
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Old 04-20-2013, 05:08 PM
 
31,683 posts, read 41,037,032 times
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The Bond Vigilantes will return one day and have their say once again.
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Old 04-20-2013, 05:17 PM
 
106,661 posts, read 108,810,853 times
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There is really nothing wrong with holding large amounts of cash at near zero rates today if your master plan is to buy some riskier assets later on when an asset class falls.

It is those that have no plan to do that ,who will either have to cut spending expectations or save a whole lot more.
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Old 04-20-2013, 06:22 PM
 
Location: Central Massachusetts
6,593 posts, read 7,088,475 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
But bad point. Raising rates will make all the debt we owe have crushing interest payments by the gov.

Billions of our tax dollars will just go for debt service with higher rates.

Why or how would that happen? Wouldn't the bonds be sold with a term and wouldn't that put money in banks to lend? As it is already the government printing money is a form of raising our interest payments already?
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