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Someone challenged my point on USA having a drop in life expectancy. If you google it, you'll find all kinds of articles on this subject. You might also consider the cuts in medical care that are already occurring in the USA because of Obamacare and cuts in Medicare. Those are also not going to help lengthen lives.
It is true and has been linked in the forum previously. It is within specific demographic groups and probably not what first comes to mind.
Someone challenged my point on USA having a drop in life expectancy. If you google it, you'll find all kinds of articles on this subject. You might also consider the cuts in medical care that are already occurring in the USA because of Obamacare and cuts in Medicare. Those are also not going to help lengthen lives.
The latest research found that women age 75 and younger are dying at higher rates than previous years in nearly half of the nation's counties - many of them rural and in the South and West. Curiously, for men, life expectancy has held steady or improved in nearly all counties
.
Quote:
The study is the latest to spot this pattern, especially among disadvantaged white women. Some leading theories blame higher smoking rates, obesity and less education, but several experts said they simply don't know why.
In a stunning development, life expectancy for some Americans is actually declining.
The life expectancy of white high school dropouts in the U.S. has dropped since 1990, according to a new study published by Health Affairs, which analyzed government data. The researchers found that the life expectancy of white female high school dropouts plunged to about 73 years in 2008 from 78 in 1990. The life expectancy of white male high school dropouts has fallen by 3 years to 67 years in the same time period, according to the New York Times.
The world's population is already over seven billion and rapidly increasing.
We're currently adding over 80 million new people--net--every year,
and even the most optimistic predictions show 10-11 billion people
before there is any stabilization.
And those are just 'predictions'...
Those prediction are made by journalists, who know little of demographics. Read the article I linked about China and its demographic time bomb to gain a clearer understanding of the subject.
Also, consider:
It takes a birth rate (that is, how many children the average woman will bear in her lifetime) of 2.0 to sustain a population of no growth.
There is not a single European country with a birth rate of 2.0 or better.
Population growth in America is solely due to immigration.
Russia has lost 5 million people in the last 10 years. They are down to 143 million people.
China speaks for itself, as explained in the above article.
And of course there is the article that started this thread, about America heading for disaster. Dunno for disaster, but change, for sure.
My own simplistic recommendation to younger people is to get a job helping seniors. Something in health care, something in medicine, something in designing elder housing or offering specialized services.
I heard of someone who started her own business helping seniors pack and move. She tailors it exactly to the needs of seniors and is very successful. There will be a huge void once the boomers are gone but for some time into the future, meeting their increasing needs should produce some opportunities.
You are right about the health care and senior service jobs. I did in home health care for a couple of years and stayed busy! Our medical community is constantly growing here and health care jobs are, if not plentiful, at least available. RNs make around $35 hour and CNAs anywhere from $10-15 hour. It was $12 hour when I was doing it.
Helping seniors pack and move...what a great idea! I've moved so many times, myself, I can almost consider myself a 'pro'. LOL How much would one charge for such a service?
I'm familiar with the population bubble discussion, and think it is an oversimplification of a rather complex topic. Though more of a P&OC discussion topic, I'll just state that I think it makes a fundamental mistake in looking at the US economy as a closed and static system, instead of a dynamic international system.
Add in technology changes, world wide population growth, public expenditures (especially for disaster recovery) and the past impact of excessive leverage and this discussion can get very messy.
But, I basically don't find the US population bubble analysis as a core driver in determining future asset value.
The bubble is global. Perhaps not as quick as in the industrialized countries but it is going to hit. Also, most of the money is in the industrialized countries and the 1% in the NICs. And none of these demographics are particularly fecund. It will hit.
One big difference between the US and Japan: we allow, and sometimes even welcome, immigrants.
Immigration is slowing. Two reasons. 1) Our economy has changed structurally and is not as good for upward mobility as it was during the immigration Golden Age. 2) The source countries are in a downward trend of birth rates.
As the boomers finally do retire the next gen will rush in to take their jobs. There may be a lag time of underspending but then it will probably pick up. The big question is at what salaries and benefits will the next gen be offered for the jobs they will take. And how much high tech is going to replace many of the boomers' current jobs in the next few years.
Many of the jobs held by the Boomers have evaporated due to automation / "right sizing" (e.g. more work heaped on fewer people) or off shoring. There are structural changes afoot.
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