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Old 06-17-2014, 05:26 PM
 
Location: Florida -
8,767 posts, read 10,857,014 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr5150 View Post
So a simple yes-no question. How many here have been in a long term care facility? If you believe the insurance boys, 70% of folk over 65 will spend an average of two years in a LTC facility.

My research says otherwise. Are you over 65? Spent any time in LTC?

What I did find is those over 90 did have a 50% chance of ending one's days in a LTC facility.

Not certain what 'my research' includes, but, "over 65" includes a much broader range of people (65 to 95?) than your question seems to imply. As others have said, ALF's and SNF's don't typically come into play until after age 75 (the majority of whom are unlikely to be sitting around responding to CD Retirement Forum questions about LTC on their computers).

The reality is that ALF's and SNF's throughout the country are filled with people 'over 65'. At today's rates, they are paying an (est) average of $40K+ (ALF) or $70K+ (SNF) EACH per year for care. In our case, our 20-year cost of LTC premiums for BOTH of us, will run about $80K total ($40K each) and carry us through 85/90-years of age respectively.

Thus, if only 50-percent of 'us' spends even 1-year in a SNF or 2-years in an ALF (at today's rates), LTC will have seemed like a pretty rational investment. Additionally, our CPIU Indexed LTC plan/s also include monitored Home Healthcare (HHC), which it may surprise some to know, can cost MORE than ALF or SNF care! We also picked-up a 'surprise' 3-year LTC rider on an annuity that will pay about $150K over 3-years (at no added cost).

Overall, LTC seem to be a pretty good financial investment. It also provides peace of mind and avoids what many report as significant privacy and resentment issues accompanying 'extended family care'. I've also seen where in-home care of an elderly spouse, by the other, tends to shorten the lifespan of the otherwise 'healthy' caregiver.
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Old 06-17-2014, 05:45 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles area
14,018 posts, read 17,754,097 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jghorton View Post
Not certain what 'my research' includes, but, "over 65" includes a much broader range of people (65 to 95?) than your question seems to imply. As others have said, ALF's and SNF's don't typically come into play until after age 75 (the majority of whom are unlikely to be sitting around responding to CD Retirement Forum questions about LTC on their computers).

The reality is that ALF's and SNF's throughout the country are filled with people 'over 65'. At today's rates, they are paying an (est) average of $40K+ (ALF) or $70K+ (SNF) EACH per year for care. In our case, our 20-year cost of LTC premiums for BOTH of us, will run about $80K total ($40K each) and carry us through 85/90-years of age respectively.

Thus, if only 50-percent of 'us' spends even 1-year in a SNF or 2-years in an ALF (at today's rates), LTC will have seemed like a pretty rational investment. Additionally, our CPIU Indexed LTC plan/s also include monitored Home Healthcare (HHC), which it may surprise some to know, can cost MORE than ALF or SNF care! We also picked-up a 'surprise' 3-year LTC rider on an annuity that will pay about $150K over 3-years (at no added cost).

Overall, LTC seem to be a pretty good financial investment. It also provides peace of mind and avoids what many report as significant privacy and resentment issues accompanying 'extended family care'. I've also seen where in-home care of an elderly spouse, by the other, tends to shorten the lifespan of the otherwise 'healthy' caregiver.
I appreciate the analytical and rational approach of your well informed post. One thing I wonder about: I have read such widely divergent "statistics" about the chances of eventually needing long-term care, and on the related theme of how much time, on average, those people who do need it end up spending under it before death claims them. I am always suspicious of information provided by those who have something for sale, which includes companies and their agents peddling long term care insurance.

I think those "statistics" are relevant to the discussion because they speak to the risks involved in taking a chance on not purchasing long term care insurance. Both the insurance itself and the costs of not having it are very pricey. Jghorton, any thoughts on the matter? Your response would be more credible to me than most, but of course I am interested in all responses.
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Old 06-17-2014, 06:14 PM
 
2,693 posts, read 2,206,968 times
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My response is "with my luck I'll need it" lol
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Old 06-17-2014, 06:45 PM
 
Location: delaware
688 posts, read 865,323 times
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[quote=Robyn55;35275596]catsy girl - Glad to hear that my "amateur" observations are on target.

WRT ALFs - I have seen the opposite of the situation you describe. Where people with limited means (either in terms of money or insurance) - or people who are just cheap - try to keep someone in an ALF long beyond the time they should be there - to save money. Because ALFs generally cost less - a lot less - than SNFs. And it isn't easy for an ALF to "evict" someone who needs more intensive care.

I witnessed an unfortunate case like this a while back. Where a wife was just plain cheap. And - when her husband in an ALF - even though he needed much more care than it could give him - was circling the drain - his wife transferred him reluctantly to a SNF - where he died 2 weeks later. Don't think the SNF - which is excellent - could have done anything under the circumstances. But - to this day - the widow goes around town bad mouthing the SNF. And I get PO'd.

OTOH - people often try to do the best they can with limited means. My late uncle and aunt in California were in this situation. My aunt cared for my uncle at home as long as one could reasonably expect a woman pushing 90 to do so. And - when it was clear he needed to live in a facility - she got the best she could afford - which wasn't much. I always wondered why their kids/grand kids didn't pitch in to help them out (I have some speculations - but I like to refrain from speculating in writing).

Just in terms of your future - I am skeptical of CCRCs. Because the finances in many are shaky. And - if there are financial problems - you're pretty much an unsecured creditor. Also - a CCRC may be good in certain areas (like independent living) - not good in others - like SNF care. We have a couple of big CCRCs here. Some seem to be doing great. And one has an excellent reputation in all 3 areas of care (independent/ALF/SNF). Others have gone into bankruptcy at least once/have had other financial issues. You have to do a lot of financial homework.

Of course - if you rent in a senior independent living facility - there's pretty much no big deal downside financially. OTOH - you may have to find other accommodations if and when an independent living facility is no longer suitable. Over the last 8 years - my father has stayed in his place by hiring people for more hours. To do more things. Like his laundry - his dishes - make lunch for him - pick up his clothes - those kinds of things. On the third hand - he is in really good shape for someone his age. On the fourth hand - we're kind of transitioning to a new phase now (he's almost 96) - and I'm not sure exactly where the road will lead. Robyn[/quote


since assisted livings don't accept medicare or medicaid that limits it for some if there truly is a legitimate option of nursing home or assisted living. there are some patients- primarily those with dementia and no skilled nursing needs - who could do assisted living, if there were no behavior issues- probably in a memory care unit as a level 3, but they would have to pay $5000 or $6000+ a month privately. if they can't do private pay the only option would be nursing home for long term care.

as far as ccrcs, they all have their own personalities, flavors, and the financial health and their track record over time are important to investigate. also it's important to check on their nursing facility's ratings ( state licensing ) even though you , as a potential independent resident may not need it in the near or distant future. i personally would not go into an independent retirement facility( non-ccrc ) unless there were an assisted living facility on campus or closely affiliated. there are two i've looked at near here that have independent cottages/condos but they also have an assisted living facility and a nursing facility as a part of their complex. first priority for assisted is given to independent people on campus although they can choose in-home care or another assisted living facility entirely. i think in coming years many boomer s will be looking for more flexibility in retirement communities, rental options as opposed to buy-in, and a mix and match cafeteria array of services available on a pay as you need basis. they won't have the money, in many cases, to purchase lifetime care-ultimately needed or not- as a large upfront purchase.

catsy girl
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Old 06-17-2014, 07:34 PM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 18,991,724 times
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Robyn and Catsy, very informative, thank you.
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Old 06-18-2014, 12:44 AM
 
Location: LA, California
15 posts, read 15,144 times
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Agents to tend to exaggerate the data to scare people but that doesnt mean it's not true. Frankly, only 40% of people aged 75+ will end up in a nursing facility per state. I believe that cumulatively, this would amount to only 65% of people aged 75+ will end in a nursing facility in the country. The statistic will never reach to a full 90% no matter what the age bracket is. I'm an insurance writer and I've had trainings like this to make our data as accurate as possible. Source.
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Old 06-18-2014, 01:19 AM
 
71,763 posts, read 71,853,273 times
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reality is percentage chances of something happening mean little when it happens to you
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Old 06-18-2014, 05:48 AM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 18,991,724 times
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What kind of LTC package and at what price would be offered to a first-time taker in his/her 60s? Probably not much if any. So if you didn't take out your policy in your 20s, 30s, or 40s, probably forget it.
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Old 06-18-2014, 06:10 AM
 
71,763 posts, read 71,853,273 times
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Not true at all ,we are in our 60's and applying now.
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Old 06-18-2014, 06:17 AM
 
Location: UpstateNY
8,612 posts, read 8,312,131 times
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jak, keep us posted.

As the industry of LTC insurance evolves I see companies pulling out because of risk and premiums going up for the same reason. It's relatively uncharted terriory, hence the wobbling in coverage and premiums.

I wonder if putting that money in an investment vehicle wouldn't make more sense? At least you would still have the funds if it weren't needed. I see so many statistics that the actual time in a LTC facility is a very small percentage of your actual lifespan.


http://www.forbes.com/search/?q=long+term+care
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