U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Retirement
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 09-12-2014, 08:21 AM
 
71,524 posts, read 71,712,424 times
Reputation: 49105

Advertisements

our food shopping budget jumped 25% since we changed lifetsyles from the strict diet i follow.

eating out is about the same since marilyn wouldn't let me eat the fast food i so liked. if anything noooo desserts on the bill now lol

now i test everything i eat and tend to stick with it.

just came back from running for an hour as they are coming today to take blood for the final determination of our long term care insurance plan we applied for.

so far i guess the reportage of the fact i ordered a meter and supplies to test didn't dis-qualify me from the insurance.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-12-2014, 10:24 AM
 
29,775 posts, read 34,863,854 times
Reputation: 11705
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretzelogik View Post
Not everyone makes it to 70.
Yes it is a gamble either way. Not making it to 70 or making it to 95. Gotta choose and live or not live with it.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2014, 10:32 AM
 
71,524 posts, read 71,712,424 times
Reputation: 49105
waiting to collect ss later on is a decision you will never live to regret .
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2014, 10:41 AM
 
29,775 posts, read 34,863,854 times
Reputation: 11705
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
waiting to collect ss later on is a decision you will never live to regret .
Sorta like being 26 and wondering if you will live to 66 to make retirement savings worth it. I wondered and I now know the answer and results. Oh well back to the another living more 30 years worksheet. I have shifted from planning to age 94 to 30 years out. At some point the FireCalc results will change with SS and Medicare changes or problems etc.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2014, 10:54 AM
 
71,524 posts, read 71,712,424 times
Reputation: 49105
well firecalc may have already changed since no data applys to todays situation.

one other thing to think about. the middle years in firecalc's data set are all joined together at somepoint with over lapping time frames. as an example 1955-1984 appears in 30 different rolling periods.

if you have a great set of up years like 1987 to 2003 , 17 years of 14% average returns that skews those 1955-1984 years by events that may never happen.

what i am getting at is recently dr pfau ran 10,000 monte carlo simulations against firecalc/trinity study's 59 actual play outs and actually included todays situation. results were very different than firecalcs to say the least when yelds were low. success rates were much lower across the board.
under normal times pfaus work showed only 30% equities resulted in a 95% success rate vs firecalcs 50%showing many failures.

but the firecalc data set included time frames that appeared in many rolling periods that had big bond bear markets .

equal weighting of those time frames gave pfaus monte carlo simulations a very different outcome.

it seems the more we know the less we find out we know.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2014, 10:57 AM
 
29,775 posts, read 34,863,854 times
Reputation: 11705
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
well firecalc may have already changed since no data applys to todays situation.

one other thing to think about. the middle years in firecalc's data set are all joined together at somepoint with over lapping time frames. as an example 1955-1984 appears in 30 different rolling periods.

if you have a great set of up years like 1987 to 2003 , 17 years of 14% average returns that skews those 1955-1984 years by events that may never happen.

what i am getting at is recently dr pfau ran 10,000 monte carlo simulations against firecalc/trinity study's 59 actual play outs and actually included todays situation. results were very different than firecalcs to say the least when yelds were low. success rates were much lower across the board.
I meant my inputs.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2014, 11:02 AM
 
71,524 posts, read 71,712,424 times
Reputation: 49105
it really does not matter what you input when there is good reason the output may not apply.

i will find the link , it is dry reading but interesting. it was a joint effort between pfau and blanchett.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/n...rawal_Rate.php
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2014, 11:05 AM
 
29,775 posts, read 34,863,854 times
Reputation: 11705
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
it really does not matter what you input when there is good reason the output may not apply.

i will find the link , it is dry reading but interesting.

Advisor Perspectives
Yes it does if my pension or SS gets reduced or my pension ceases to have a COLA. I know what my results look like and I like the 99.9% percent rate regardless of their formula. It doesn't matter the inputs matter for us long term. What would change in their output is the savings amount. I am not talking about you and people in a similar position but about me and people in a similar position.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2014, 11:06 AM
 
Location: in the miseries
3,302 posts, read 3,579,301 times
Reputation: 3810
I think it's all a crapshoot anyway.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2014, 01:18 PM
 
71,524 posts, read 71,712,424 times
Reputation: 49105
It is a calulated crap shoot. While events change that make up the data the math never does.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Retirement
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top