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Old 02-18-2016, 08:28 AM
 
Location: RVA
2,164 posts, read 1,264,598 times
Reputation: 4451

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It will not update again, if you haven't started collecting yet, unless you made significantly more or less than the last year. For future estimates on people not collecting, it assumes you made the same as last year for the following, and all subsequent years until FRA, or the date if claiming earlier.. All you have to do is be alive and not claiming yet, and it updates automatically in January. I've been observing this procedure for years. Mine never changes even when credited via my IRS return, since the assumed amount is already the SS max witholding, and I already have 35 years of max. It goes up very little per year now.
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Old 02-18-2016, 09:38 AM
 
Location: Northern VA
511 posts, read 631,117 times
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I would expect to see a larger increase once 2015 earnings are included since it is my 36th year.
I would hope that a year of max earnings replacing a very low earnings year (less than $1,000) would make a difference.

Time will tell.
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Old 02-18-2016, 12:29 PM
 
Location: OH>IL>CO>CT
5,226 posts, read 8,388,588 times
Reputation: 7180
Quote:
Originally Posted by djplourd View Post
I would expect to see a larger increase once 2015 earnings are included since it is my 36th year.
I would hope that a year of max earnings replacing a very low earnings year (less than $1,000) would make a difference.

Time will tell.
Be aware that those early years are adjusted for wage inflation before your benefit mount is calculated. IOW, some early years could be "worth" more than a recent year. In my case, my first 2 full years of employment after high school are in my highest 35 , even though I had about 15 years of hitting the SS max. (Those 2 years were the max then in 1963/4. Max was $4800)

For more details, see https://www.socialsecurity.gov/oact/...wifactors.html

If you are handy with spreadsheets, you could take the amounts shown on your Earnings Statement, multiply be the %s from the chart from the above link, and see the effect on your on record.
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Old 02-18-2016, 03:24 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque
1,708 posts, read 2,580,696 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemycat View Post
Here's another link to a little different version. If you know your Full Retirement Age amt, you just apply the percent that the "Early/ Late Retirement" gives you when you plug in your birth date and the month you would like to begin.
https://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/...arly_late.html
Thanks. I figured $1750 at 65 the calc tells me $1786.
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Old 02-19-2016, 02:16 AM
 
Location: Northern VA
511 posts, read 631,117 times
Reputation: 621
Quote:
Originally Posted by reed303 View Post
Be aware that those early years are adjusted for wage inflation before your benefit mount is calculated. IOW, some early years could be "worth" more than a recent year. In my case, my first 2 full years of employment after high school are in my highest 35 , even though I had about 15 years of hitting the SS max. (Those 2 years were the max then in 1963/4. Max was $4800)

For more details, see https://www.socialsecurity.gov/oact/...wifactors.html

If you are handy with spreadsheets, you could take the amounts shown on your Earnings Statement, multiply be the %s from the chart from the above link, and see the effect on your on record.
I've done this before but either the indexing numbers have changed or I messed it up the first time.

Even with indexing my current earnings are higher than all but the last few years. Indexed my 2015 earnings are over 175k which would replace my lowest earning year of less than 5k. That's why I expect to see a larger increase.
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Old 02-19-2016, 05:14 AM
 
13,872 posts, read 7,386,288 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djplourd View Post
I've done this before but either the indexing numbers have changed or I messed it up the first time.

Even with indexing my current earnings are higher than all but the last few years. Indexed my 2015 earnings are over 175k which would replace my lowest earning year of less than 5k. That's why I expect to see a larger increase.
It extrapolates based on what you earned the last reporting period. If you maxed out Social Security in 2014 and did the same in 2015, the numbers shouldn't change since there was no inflation adjustment this year.

I downloaded their Windows program and did the data entry on my earnings history. I wanted to model some "what if" scenarios to see what my check would be if I stopped working today or a couple years from now. In my case, I learned that the numbers didn't change much. You are not going to get that kind of information from the mailed statement or their web site. It will just assume you will make at least $118,500 until you retire if that's what you made last year.
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Old 02-19-2016, 08:35 AM
 
Location: RVA
2,164 posts, read 1,264,598 times
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That was what I was trying to explain in my last post. The only way one would see a big change in calculated amount would be if their last years salary was way below the $118500 number, and then in reality the last year one earned over the $118500 number. Otherwise. The prediction ALREADY replaced that $5k first year with the predicted $118500. And if you do the math, a single $0 year out of 35, if the other 34 were fairly high, replaced with a $118500, only bumps you up maybe $50/mo. I've watched exactly that happen on my own statements and predictions. And while that doesn't seem right, once you have 35 years of 100% then every year after that, you get essentially zero increase (well, COL differential) for every $7350 (plus the same from my employer) added to the SS coffer. So my last 4 years of SS premiums totaling around $60k due to my worked income, doesn't do me, personally, one bit of good. Just an added 7% tax for me.
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Old 02-20-2016, 03:31 AM
 
Location: Northern VA
511 posts, read 631,117 times
Reputation: 621
Quote:
Originally Posted by Perryinva View Post
That was what I was trying to explain in my last post. The only way one would see a big change in calculated amount would be if their last years salary was way below the $118500 number, and then in reality the last year one earned over the $118500 number. Otherwise. The prediction ALREADY replaced that $5k first year with the predicted $118500. And if you do the math, a single $0 year out of 35, if the other 34 were fairly high, replaced with a $118500, only bumps you up maybe $50/mo. I've watched exactly that happen on my own statements and predictions. And while that doesn't seem right, once you have 35 years of 100% then every year after that, you get essentially zero increase (well, COL differential) for every $7350 (plus the same from my employer) added to the SS coffer. So my last 4 years of SS premiums totaling around $60k due to my worked income, doesn't do me, personally, one bit of good. Just an added 7% tax for me.
Perry, I thought that might be what you were saying in your previous post but I was hoping it might not be the case.

That means they're calculating 25 years of max earnings as part of my 35 years. But if that's true, how do I show an increase each year? Plus it means that if I stop earning the max or stop working before FRA my estimates will go down significantly.

I'll try plugging the numbers into the SSA calculator again and see what happens.
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Old 03-02-2016, 08:07 PM
 
4 posts, read 6,432 times
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SSA has posted my earnings from one of the three jobs I had last year.
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Old 03-03-2016, 11:28 AM
 
Location: RVA
2,164 posts, read 1,264,598 times
Reputation: 4451
Quote:
Originally Posted by djplourd View Post
Perry, I thought that might be what you were saying in your previous post but I was hoping it might not be the case.

That means they're calculating 25 years of max earnings as part of my 35 years. But if that's true, how do I show an increase each year? Plus it means that if I stop earning the max or stop working before FRA my estimates will go down significantly.

I'll try plugging the numbers into the SSA calculator again and see what happens.
Not sure what you mean. Do you only have 10 years in the system and are at MAX, so you are asking if they are already calculating the next 25 years as MAX? No, it doesn't go out that far correctly. They assume that you income STAYS atthat level, and they increase the MAX number over the next 25 years.
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