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Location: Chapel Hill, NC, formerly NoVA and Phila
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
our estate attorney warned us that most times the stay at home spouse goes in to survival mode when the other spouse has huge sums of money coming out of the account to pay for care .
generally there are choices made in the interest of saving money and not in to getting the best care .
we did not even want to get the kids potentially involved and so we have a policy .
Yes, no one wants the additional financial stress on top of an already stressful situation. As my husband was an only child, it was stressful enough talking to her doctors, dealing with the nursing home, making health decisions, dealing with her house, etc. that it was a releif not to have to worry where the money was coming from or how long she'd be in there.
I have been researching LTC statistics in order to get a better idea of risk. Some of that research material is provided below. I thought this might be helpful to those of you who use probabilities in your decision making. This information is probably not helpful for those of you who assume you need to be insured regardless of probability. I understand that whether you need care or not is a binary outcome. I believe it is still helpful to quantify the risk. Please disregard this information if you feel otherwise.
Here are some of the statistics I found:
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services provides long term care statistics on its website. The following are some averages it provides:
• “Someone turning 65 today has almost a 70% chance of needing some type of long term care services in their remaining years.”
• “Women need care for an average of 3.7 years versus 2.2 years for men.”
• “One third of today’s 65 year-olds may never need long-term care, but 20% will need it for longer than 5 years.”
The Alzheimer’s Association published a report entitled “2015 Alzheimer’s Disease Facts and Figures.” Key information and statistics from that report along with page references:
• In 2015, it is estimated 5.3 million Americans have Alzheimer’s. Half of these people may not have been told by a physician they have it. (pg 16)
• Of these 5.3 million people, 96% are 65 or older and 81% are 75 or older. (pg 16)
• More women than men have Alzheimer’s and other dementias. Of the 5.1 million people 65 and over with Alzheimer’s, 3.2 million (63%) are women and 1.9 million (37%) are men. (pg 17)
• About 11% of all people 65 and over have Alzheimer’s. (pg 16)
• About 33% of all people 85 and over have Alzheimer’s. (pg 16)
• One school of thought, but not a definitively proven fact, as to why more women get Alzheimer’s is they live longer and older age is the greatest risk factor for Alzheimer’s. (pg 17)
• The Framingham Study estimated the lifetime risk of Alzheimer’s by age and sex. Lifetime risk is the probability that someone of a given age will develop a condition during his or her remaining lifespan. Their estimates of the probability of getting Alzheimer’s at certain ages were: (pg 21)
o At 65 – 9% for men and 17% for women.
o At 75 – 10% for men and 19% for women.
o At 85 – 12% for men and 20% for women.
• A growing number of studies indicate the age-specific risk of Alzheimer’s and other dementias in the U.S. and other higher-income Western countries may have declined in the past 25 years, though results are mixed. These declines have largely been attributed to increasing levels of education and improved control of cardiovascular risk factors. (pg 21)
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services also provides statistics for the types of care used and length of that care. The primary kinds of long term care include: i) Care at home – unpaid; ii) Care at home – paid; and iii) Assisted living facilities; and iv) nursing homes. Their statistics suggest that the average person will likely need 3 years of care and use multiple forms of care as follows: 1 year of unpaid home care, 1 year of paid home care, and 1 year of facility-based care.
Boston College released a study in November 2014 that generally aligns with the government’s statistics. BC puts the lifetime risk of needing nursing home care at 44% for men and 58% for women. The government suggests the risk is 35%. BC found that the typical length of stay is 10 months for men and 16 months for women, which is consistent with the government’s 1 year average length of stay.
The BC study also predicted that 50% of men and 39% of women who use nursing home care will never have a stay exceeding three months. A Wall Street Journal article from several years ago more optimistically reported that 67% to 70% of seniors who go into a nursing home are discharged within 90 days. That same WSJ article also said that of 40 million seniors alive today, 1.5 million, or 3.7%, live in nursing homes.
Another more recent WSJ article dated 5/1/15 provided information on long term care claims history. It stated that in 2012, the latest year for which data are available: i) Home health care claims represented 50% of claims; ii) Nursing home claims represented 31% of claims; and iii) Assisted living claims represented 19% of claims. These claims numbers are also consistent with the government’s statistics. The government suggests the average person requiring care receives 67% of their care at home and 33% in a facility. The fact that home health care costs account for 50% of claims versus 67% of care provided makes sense, because home health care is less expensive than facility-based care. The point of the government, Boston College, and insurance claims statistics is that a significant portion of long term care is provided at home.
Finally, the Alzheimer’s Association estimates that the typical life expectancy for someone who has been diagnosed with Alzheimer’s is 4 to 8 years. It did not say how much of that time was spent at home versus a facility. AA also said that 50% of people don’t know they have Alzheimer’s, so it’s unlikely those people are receiving much, if any, care.
when you know what outcome from those statistics will be yours or a spouse's , then they mean something to an individual .
again , we do not insure against the likely things in life . we insure against the remote possibility's that if THEY DO HAPPEN TO US CAN BE DEVASTATING .
when you know what outcome from those statistics will be yours or a spouse's , then they mean something to an individual .
Then you fall into the camp of people for whom probabilities don't matter. That's okay. I am not trying to convince you otherwise. I thought this information would be helpful to other people, like myself, who factor probabilities into their decision making.
6 years in a home for my dad says , yep , probability's do not matter
I'm sorry your dad was in a home for 6 years. I really am. However, that one data point is not representative of the statistical average.
Moreover, I didn't say you shouldn't buy LTCi. I said that statistics can be helpful in the decision making process. Useful information is always helpful in decision making.
I'm sorry your dad was in a home for 6 years. I really am. However, that one data point is not representative of the statistical average.
Moreover, I didn't say you shouldn't buy LTCi. I said that statistics can be helpful in the decision making process. Useful information is always helpful in decision making.
I agree that statistics can be helpful. I can tell you though statistics aside it really is a comfort level and money post level that will drive the train. Statistics alone cannot give you all the answers at some point you have to look beyond the numbers.
I would say that I am of the school of thought in our micro world I would want to protect the two of us with LTCI in particular so that my wife is not burdened with me at the cost of our life savings.
not to be rude but a lot of LTC talk where the concern becomes I want my wife not to be burdened becomes 'scary talk'.
I have several female single friends and a sister and they bought LTC out of fear that they would have no one to take care of them. I shudder when they tell me how much money comes out of their pensions for insurance. and they started these policies many years ago (thinking how much they paid in already) They basically seem to get scared at the unknown and inevitable vulnerability of old age or illness and took that policy.
So I like the statistics posts to bring clear facts to light. Guess we are hard wired to protect our spouse which is good for preservation of the species at least during child bearing/rearing years. so I understand that spousal protection aspect. just don't see LTC making financial sense when there are other instruments that can be used for the same purpose.
Last edited by theoldnorthstate; 10-14-2015 at 09:09 AM..
While the concern about having to argue and haggle with an LTCI company that doesn’t want to pay up wasn’t the most important factor in my decision to not get LTCI now – it was a negative bias I had going into my consultations.
Psychologically, just knowing I can get car insurance and homeowners insurance for less than 100 bucks a month each.....doesn’t make me just rush to give up another 225 a month for LCTI.
Personally, I just don't think LTCI companies have that great a handle on their underwriting, and premium formulas(ae). They may be getting better, but I don’t trust that I won’t pay for 30 years....get into my 80s and the premium will increase to the point where I have to drop coverage levels to keep it affordable...just as I get more likely to need the coverage .
As I’ve said I can’t say I’ll NEVER get it. But not right now, at 55.
There are policies where the premium is guaranteed to never go up.
not to be rude but a lot of LTC talk where the concern becomes I want my wife not to be burdened becomes 'scary talk'.
I have several female single friends and a sister and they bought LTC out of fear that they would have no one to take care of them. I shudder when they tell me how much money comes out of their pensions for insurance. and they started these policies many years ago (thinking how much they paid in already) They basically seem to get scared at the unknown and inevitable vulnerability of old age or illness and took that policy.
So I like the statistics posts to bring clear facts to light. Guess we are hard wired to protect our spouse which is good for preservation of the species at least during child bearing/rearing years. so I understand that spousal protection aspect. just don't see LTC making financial sense when there are other instruments that can be used for the same purpose.
what other financial instruments are you referring to?
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