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Old 12-23-2015, 05:47 AM
 
Location: Massachusetts
207 posts, read 132,826 times
Reputation: 533

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garthur View Post
After reading this thread, I realized that the difference between the Gold people and the non Gold people comes down to their station in life. The ones that popo Gold and say that Gold is a bad investment see all wealth as a way to make more wealth, this could be based in a desire to have more then the next guy and never being satisfied with themselves or their environment. The non Gold people make the fatal mistake of seeing Gold as an investment.

The people that are pro Gold have reached a comfortable time in their life and are generally content and have excess funds and need a place to store and diversify their wealth above and beyond normal needs of life. So transferring wealth into Gold and Silver is the obvious answer.

The anti Gold people seem to have a need to put down advocates of Gold to make themselves feel superior, which fits the first paragraph explanation. Gold people mostly have a larger view of the world then the non Gold people and can see a little clearer picture of themselves and the future.

Gold people are still investors with stock holdings, financial tools such as; CD's, Real estate, and cash, but do want some insurance in the 10% range of their wealth with PM's.
Who would have thunk? Before your post, I thought it came down to a difference in intelligence.
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Old 12-23-2015, 05:56 AM
 
72,309 posts, read 72,246,407 times
Reputation: 49843
Not intelligence as much as just investment choices based on current perception of things.

I have nothing against owning gold when there is at least a reason presenting itself. I love buying high and selling higher once a trend is under way. I will gladly give up the early gains before i jump in to gold for no reason other then a quick trading vehicle . Which i have been doing for years.
Unlike stocks and real estate which can have shorter cycles , you can wait so long for the ship to come in with gold the pier collapses.

Gold has to first go up almost 100% just to reach it's old high..

Last edited by mathjak107; 12-23-2015 at 06:14 AM..
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Old 12-23-2015, 06:43 AM
 
2,059 posts, read 1,965,026 times
Reputation: 3487
I think with the skepticism abounding about gold that it might be stabilizing but likely it's an L or U type recovery and not the V recovery of the US stock markets post 2008.
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Old 12-23-2015, 07:13 AM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,997,381 times
Reputation: 6724
Own a little physical gold and always hope it does poorly. It's a way to diversify - a hedge against other forms of investments.

The biggest problem I have with the gold we own now - which we have owned for a long long time - is the capital gains tax we would have to pay if we sold it (not that we are planning to sell it). 28% - the capital gains rate for collectibles. This capital gains rate applies not only to physical gold - but to gold ETFs like GLD as well:

Gold ETF Sellers Facing Tax Surprises at 28% Gains Rate - Bloomberg Business

I think that physical gold and gold ETFs play different roles in a portfolio. The former is more of a "disaster hedge" - the latter more of a trading vehicle. If someone is more into trading than hedging when it comes to gold/precious metals - I recommend taking a look at ETFs that track the XAU (more or less) - not the price of physical gold. Like the GDX. More "bang for the buck" - but a lot more volatile. In addition to owning physical gold - I trade GLD - GDX - SLV too. They are some of the ETFs in my relatively small "sector trading portfolio" universe. I've been sector trading for perhaps 25 years now (used to use Fidelity sector funds - the current gold one is FSAGX - which tracks the XAU more or less - but switched to ETFs when the sector fund trading rules changed).

FWIW - as I get older - I am losing my taste for trading - even longer term position trading (I did a little day trading when I was in my 50's - but it was hard to "keep up" with the markets every day - day after day - extremely time-consuming/fatiguing - so that didn't last long). Guess I am slowing down. Or perhaps it's simply a normal reaction to what were for the most part volatile but fairly trendless markets this year (with some exceptions). More work than usual. Less to show for it.

Note that - IIRC - mathjak107 used to be a fan of Harry Browne's "permanent portfolio" (or some variation of it). Which calls for 25% investments in stocks/bonds/cash/gold:

A portfolio for all seasons? - MarketWatch

Don't know if he has abandoned that POV (and the portion of his portfolio that he invested that way). Perhaps he can tell us?

BTW - I think it's silly for people to try to paint other people who invest in or trade various forms of precious metals (or don't) with the same brush. Or to lump all of them in with people who like to collect coins (those people do so for a variety of reasons as well). I think it was Joe Granville who said "if you don't know who you are - the markets are an expensive place to find out". I assume that by the time we're seniors - and retired - we know who we are (and why we're managing our portfolios the way we do). Robyn
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Old 12-23-2015, 07:17 AM
 
72,309 posts, read 72,246,407 times
Reputation: 49843
I stopped the permanent portfolio quite a while ago. My managed funds over the long term just ended up blowing the pp away and the pp ended up being no less riskier. Once gold stopped its brief run up the pp no longer had the edge .

The big problem with the pp is it attempts to insure against all outcomes equally when the chances of them playing out are anything but equal.

Insuring the remote flyers with the same amount of money as the most likely makes little investing sense.

The other problem is there is no one in the drivers seat anymore to adjust things as time changes.

A 40 year bull market in bonds made holding long term treasury's no problem.

But today the risk is they will continue normalizing and with weak market returns predicted i believe you don't want anything pulling the lead horse which will likely be equty's backby the collar every time they get some traction.

You are seeing this now ytd as all the fidelity insight models are postive yet the pp is still down for the year.

Last edited by mathjak107; 12-23-2015 at 07:34 AM..
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Old 12-23-2015, 07:31 AM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,997,381 times
Reputation: 6724
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
...Trying to buy low and sell high ends up losing more money then anyother mantra. Buy high and sell higher is the biggest money maker.

Trying to catch that falling knife usually ends up triggering stop losses or sending folk running for the exits just like 2008-2009.

Folks thought low was when we fell 2000 points. The fact we had 4000 points more to fall sent folks running for the exits licking their wounds.

Don't fight the trend...
My systems/trading are trend following - so I agree with that.

OTOH - if that's what you believe - why are you (apparently - see message #42) short term trading GLD (downtrend this year)? Or Exxon Mobil (XOM)? Downtrend this year. Or especially Kinder Morgan (KMI)? The proverbial "falling knife". Unless you're taking short as well as long positions. Note that I realize there are other trading styles. But you seem to be endorsing those in the "trend following" camp. Robyn
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Old 12-23-2015, 08:00 AM
 
72,309 posts, read 72,246,407 times
Reputation: 49843
My day trading is for fun and it is amazing how successful it has been .

Of course the volatility in the issues i use will eventually change but for now it has been so predictible.

I bought kmi the day before yesterday and sold it yesterday . Bought it again near the close and will sell it any moment again this morning.

The 200-400 dollar profits almost every other day have been adding up nicely considering this is my vegas money . Been doing this for a few months now
Almost like clock work anytime these issues get slammed they rebound within a day. But if i am wrong a stop loss just gets me out with very little damage.

Correction kmi just sold again

Last edited by mathjak107; 12-23-2015 at 08:17 AM..
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Old 12-23-2015, 08:10 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
12,750 posts, read 4,308,965 times
Reputation: 10062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garthur View Post
After reading this thread, I realized that the difference between the Gold people and the non Gold people comes down to their station in life. The ones that popo Gold and say that Gold is a bad investment see all wealth as a way to make more wealth, this could be based in a desire to have more then the next guy and never being satisfied with themselves or their environment. The non Gold people make the fatal mistake of seeing Gold as an investment.

The people that are pro Gold have reached a comfortable time in their life and are generally content and have excess funds and need a place to store and diversify their wealth above and beyond normal needs of life. So transferring wealth into Gold and Silver is the obvious answer.

The anti Gold people seem to have a need to put down advocates of Gold to make themselves feel superior, which fits the first paragraph explanation. Gold people mostly have a larger view of the world then the non Gold people and can see a little clearer picture of themselves and the future.

Gold people are still investors with stock holdings, financial tools such as; CD's, Real estate, and cash, but do want some insurance in the 10% range of their wealth with PM's.
Interesting that according to your analysis, Warren Buffett would fall into this category:
The anti Gold people seem to have a need to put down advocates of Gold to make themselves feel superior, which fits the first paragraph explanation. Gold people mostly have a larger view of the world then the non Gold people and can see a little clearer picture of themselves and the future.


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Old 12-23-2015, 11:24 AM
 
Location: Texas
1,976 posts, read 1,386,498 times
Reputation: 6785
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garthur View Post
After reading this thread, I realized that the difference between the Gold people and the non Gold people comes down to their station in life. The ones that popo Gold and say that Gold is a bad investment see all wealth as a way to make more wealth, this could be based in a desire to have more then the next guy and never being satisfied with themselves or their environment. The non Gold people make the fatal mistake of seeing Gold as an investment.

The people that are pro Gold have reached a comfortable time in their life and are generally content and have excess funds and need a place to store and diversify their wealth above and beyond normal needs of life. So transferring wealth into Gold and Silver is the obvious answer.

The anti Gold people seem to have a need to put down advocates of Gold to make themselves feel superior, which fits the first paragraph explanation. Gold people mostly have a larger view of the world then the non Gold people and can see a little clearer picture of themselves and the future.

Gold people are still investors with stock holdings, financial tools such as; CD's, Real estate, and cash, but do want some insurance in the 10% range of their wealth with PM's.
LOL, and I assumed that the people buying gold are the same that get financial advice from Glenn Beck.
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Old 12-23-2015, 12:05 PM
 
8,019 posts, read 5,095,445 times
Reputation: 13730
Skepticism of gold's merits does not necessarily imply arrant dismissal of gold as being some sort of poison. Neither is gold useless as a speculative tool. Rather, the point is that...

1. Buying-and-holding large amounts of gold - in perpetuity - is not a solid foundation for an investment portfolio.

2. Ardent advocates of gold tend to also dismiss the Federal Reserve, "paper currencies" and the modern financial system as being something vile, pernicious, phony and hopelessly corrupt. This view is, shall we say, not the mainstream view amongst investors.

3. Likewise, the ardent advocates of gold tend to hold an apocalyptic view of the world. They're less concerned with boosting their cumulative annual return, than with surviving the unthinkable.

4. If you see no safer or more profitable investment than gold, then by all means, invest in gold. If there are better alternatives to gold, well then, don't be reluctant to pursue them.

I remember (barely) the malaise of the 1970s, when entirely serious people recommended "collectibles" as an investment - things like coins, artwork, rugs. This wasn't for speculation or self-amusement... it was for funding one's retirement. Well, to those folks who are older and how remember vividly those times - how did such "investment advice" work out?
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