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Old 01-10-2016, 10:02 AM
 
Location: SoCal
13,371 posts, read 6,390,348 times
Reputation: 9967

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Only in America or USA, I would hear the complain that a disable person not cared for at 84. My slightly disable cousin died at age 15, she was only a year older than me. I'm often feel guilty why she did she have to die so young, but her mother had 13 children to take care of and she was a single mom. That's the safety net I think America provides. Let's not forget that. While it doesn't take care of every situation, it's still pretty good.
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Old 01-10-2016, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
31,166 posts, read 13,668,080 times
Reputation: 22209
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
Only in America or USA, I would hear the complain that a disable person not cared for at 84. My slightly disable cousin died at age 15, she was only a year older than me. I'm often feel guilty why she did she have to die so young, but her mother had 13 children to take care of and she was a single mom. That's the safety net I think America provides. Let's not forget that. While it doesn't take care of every situation, it's still pretty good.
I'm not sure what your point is, if it was in reference to my Great Aunt's daughter she is being cared for, and very well. After she passed we sold her home and put the money into a trust for her daughter, her care is paid for directly out of that trust..she wants for nothing.
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Old 01-10-2016, 10:18 AM
 
39,336 posts, read 20,424,022 times
Reputation: 12802
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
Only in America or USA, I would hear the complain that a disable person not cared for at 84. My slightly disable cousin died at age 15, she was only a year older than me. I'm often feel guilty why she did she have to die so young, but her mother had 13 children to take care of and she was a single mom. That's the safety net I think America provides. Let's not forget that. While it doesn't take care of every situation, it's still pretty good.
13 children and a single mom? Where was daddy or the daddy's?
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Old 01-10-2016, 10:49 AM
 
Location: SoCal
13,371 posts, read 6,390,348 times
Reputation: 9967
Quote:
Originally Posted by petch751 View Post
13 children and a single mom? Where was daddy or the daddy's?
Multiple dads. She left them because of one reasons or another. She was the bread winner.
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Old 01-10-2016, 10:53 AM
 
Location: SoCal
13,371 posts, read 6,390,348 times
Reputation: 9967
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
I'm not sure what your point is, if it was in reference to my Great Aunt's daughter she is being cared for, and very well. After she passed we sold her home and put the money into a trust for her daughter, her care is paid for directly out of that trust..she wants for nothing.
I'm not sure I understand your point either. She had money from a trust fund, so what was the point to your previous post.
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Old 01-10-2016, 11:21 AM
 
7,975 posts, read 5,065,845 times
Reputation: 13635
I'd like, if I may, to steer the discussion back to investment for retirement, and defined-benefit vs. defined-contribution pensions. Note last week's horrendous carnage in stock markets around the world. For persons whose retirement is largely contingent on their success as investors, last week was a brutal shock. Yes, experienced investors should not panic and should not suddenly redefine their outlook based on one single week's performance. Even so, such drops - seemingly without any economic justification, at least not in America or Europe - are deeply unsettling, and suggest that a "crisis" can materialize out of nowhere.

The bottom line is that for salaried professionals 30 years ago, investment was a hobby and a sideshow. While perturbed by sudden drops in the market, they'd have little reason for outright worry, being insulated from market vicissitude by their defined-benefit pensions. The same professions today might actually command a higher salary (inflation-adjusted) than before, but investment has become of necessity a core pursuit, and no mere hobby.

I wonder what would happen if the shocks of last week, and of this past August, become "the new normal"? How many people would get scared out of stocks, causing a cascading effect in the market in the short-term, and reducing their own retirement prospects in the long term?

Looking towards the next 30 years, suppose that the Millennials actually do get remunerative jobs, and do pay off their debts, and do save diligently for retirement - but that they're inept or unlucky investors? In other words, if they do everything right, but still come out poorly - what then? A crisis?
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Old 01-10-2016, 11:35 AM
 
71,942 posts, read 71,971,035 times
Reputation: 49502
considering we had 26% drops already in one session 5% in a week isn't so bad .

the world does things much faster today and drops and rises happen very very quickly as fear , greed and perception are translated in to market pricing very fast .

this is why i say static allocations are really not the best way to invest anymore .

the swings for any given allocation are increasing with this speed of information .

while a 60/40 mix may have been in your comfort zone 20 years ago to get the same swings you signed on for you may need a 40/60 or 50/50 model ..
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Old 01-10-2016, 01:06 PM
 
14,007 posts, read 7,465,102 times
Reputation: 25618
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
I'd like, if I may, to steer the discussion back to investment for retirement, and defined-benefit vs. defined-contribution pensions. Note last week's horrendous carnage in stock markets around the world. For persons whose retirement is largely contingent on their success as investors, last week was a brutal shock. Yes, experienced investors should not panic and should not suddenly redefine their outlook based on one single week's performance. Even so, such drops - seemingly without any economic justification, at least not in America or Europe - are deeply unsettling, and suggest that a "crisis" can materialize out of nowhere.

The bottom line is that for salaried professionals 30 years ago, investment was a hobby and a sideshow. While perturbed by sudden drops in the market, they'd have little reason for outright worry, being insulated from market vicissitude by their defined-benefit pensions. The same professions today might actually command a higher salary (inflation-adjusted) than before, but investment has become of necessity a core pursuit, and no mere hobby.

I wonder what would happen if the shocks of last week, and of this past August, become "the new normal"? How many people would get scared out of stocks, causing a cascading effect in the market in the short-term, and reducing their own retirement prospects in the long term?

Looking towards the next 30 years, suppose that the Millennials actually do get remunerative jobs, and do pay off their debts, and do save diligently for retirement - but that they're inept or unlucky investors? In other words, if they do everything right, but still come out poorly - what then? A crisis?
Defined benefit pensions are going to vanish completely even in the public sector. As states and cities/towns get crushed with pension liabilities, the voters who have nothing like those cushy pensions are going to kill them at the ballot box.

The Millenials will eventually rule the world. Plenty of them will become fabulously wealthy. Given the trend towards wealth and income stratification, far more are going to get to their 60's with low net worth and close to zero retirement savings.

Nobody knows how the stock market is going to do over the next 30+ years. The world economy in 2016 is very different from the last 30 years. You can't look backwards and use history as a predictor. I think that the big multinationals who invest capital in automation will continue to grow their profits and that technology will continue to reduce the value of labor as more and more gets automated.
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Old 01-10-2016, 01:58 PM
 
1,751 posts, read 3,991,596 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Defined benefit pensions are going to vanish completely even in the public sector. As states and cities/towns get crushed with pension liabilities, the voters who have nothing like those cushy pensions are going to kill them at the ballot box.

The Millenials will eventually rule the world. Plenty of them will become fabulously wealthy. Given the trend towards wealth and income stratification, far more are going to get to their 60's with low net worth and close to zero retirement savings.

Nobody knows how the stock market is going to do over the next 30+ years. The world economy in 2016 is very different from the last 30 years. You can't look backwards and use history as a predictor. I think that the big multinationals who invest capital in automation will continue to grow their profits and that technology will continue to reduce the value of labor as more and more gets automated.
I'm not saying anything you said isn't likely to happen, but what's your point? That people without the inclination for investment as their de facto second job are screwed? That's the entire median workforce of america pretty much.

Millenials are screwed. As long as social security retirement is acceptable to people, everything will be alright. But we know it isn't. I suspect that alone is going to be huge sticker shock to households accustomed to living and raising a family on 75-120K/yr. Households below that mark never had a shot at 70pct income replacement from a defined contribution plan as a primary plan with no pension anyways. So, like the 60 year old neighbor of mine who makes 80K but has nothing to her name for 4 decades of treading water and spotty income stints, she'll enjoy her lifestyle until she can't work anymore, then she's instantaneously in the poor house. A cohort of millions of "middle class" wage earners that become indigent the SECOND they stop laboring? That's a dystopia. Only childless people can save their way to a 80pct income retirement if they make less than 150K/yr in non-coastal america. The rest are indigent the day they stop earning a W2. We can't just accuse people of moral bankruptcy or financial lazyness and wash our hands of millions of people who are going to pull the tax base curtain down in illness and desperation. You don't want to live in a Country like that, even if you personally insulated yourself from the carnage. Being a target in a high wealth-disparity society is overrated. Pyrrhic victory if I ever saw one.

This Country needs a true labor reform right yesterday. More real wages, less credit lines in lieu of pay. Proliferation of High teen B-funds, less 401k insufficient bull---t. Otherwise you have to swell up the welfare. No free lunch. Dismissing the retirement insolvency of millions of american wage workers of any color collar as somebody else's problem, may sound cool and self-righteous on TV, but in the real world it leads to carnage and spills over to the have's as well.
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Old 01-10-2016, 02:56 PM
 
14,007 posts, read 7,465,102 times
Reputation: 25618
Quote:
Originally Posted by hindsight2020 View Post
I'm not saying anything you said isn't likely to happen, but what's your point? That people without the inclination for investment as their de facto second job are screwed? That's the entire median workforce of america pretty much.
My point is that the "golden era of affluent retirees" is coming to an abrupt end. Defined-benefit pensions? Gone. The median person is going to hit 60-something with low net worth and practically no retirement savings. The top-30% or so will be OK assuming they don't get divorced too often and actually contribute to their defined contribution retirement account. Most retirees are going to be living very close to the poverty level.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hindsight2020 View Post
Millenials are screwed. As long as social security retirement is acceptable to people, everything will be alright. But we know it isn't. I suspect that alone is going to be huge sticker shock to households accustomed to living and raising a family on 75-120K/yr. Households below that mark never had a shot at 70pct income replacement from a defined contribution plan as a primary plan with no pension anyways. So, like the 60 year old neighbor of mine who makes 80K but has nothing to her name for 4 decades of treading water and spotty income stints, she'll enjoy her lifestyle until she can't work anymore, then she's instantaneously in the poor house. A cohort of millions of "middle class" wage earners that become indigent the SECOND they stop laboring? That's a dystopia. Only childless people can save their way to a 80pct income retirement if they make less than 150K/yr in non-coastal america. The rest are indigent the day they stop earning a W2. We can't just accuse people of moral bankruptcy or financial lazyness and wash our hands of millions of people who are going to pull the tax base curtain down in illness and desperation. You don't want to live in a Country like that, even if you personally insulated yourself from the carnage. Being a target in a high wealth-disparity society is overrated. Pyrrhic victory if I ever saw one.
Yep. And most Gen-Xers are screwed. More than half of late-boomers are screwed. Social Security is going to do exactly what it was designed to do. It's going to keep the elderly slightly above the poverty level.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hindsight2020 View Post
This Country needs a true labor reform right yesterday. More real wages, less credit lines in lieu of pay. Proliferation of High teen B-funds, less 401k insufficient bull---t. Otherwise you have to swell up the welfare. No free lunch. Dismissing the retirement insolvency of millions of american wage workers of any color collar as somebody else's problem, may sound cool and self-righteous on TV, but in the real world it leads to carnage and spills over to the have's as well.

You can't do that. Real wages for the median person are going down because that is what the global economy requires. The United States isn't 50% of the world economy like in 1950 when the rest of the first world was bombed to rubble. We're 20% of the world economy and declining. You can't arbitrarily jack up wages. The jobs will just vaporize and pop up offshore. The bottom half of the country is going to experience a continued declining standard of living. It's a structural economic problem that neither political party can fix. The Internet and cheap transportation have leveled the playing field.

For future retirees, it's pretty grim. Nobody is going to starve or freeze to death but the retirement myth you see in the commercials during golf tournaments is just that.... a myth. My prediction is that an awful lot of today's safety net that is mostly being spent on the permanent underclass and single mother families is going to be redirected at poor seniors. There is going to be an enormous shortage of low income housing. People are going to get kicked out of their Section 8 housing to make room for seniors. Medicaid is going to be gutted because Medicare is going to demand so much of the budget. Poor people don't vote. Seniors and future seniors do.
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