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Old 01-11-2016, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Amongst the AZ Cactus
7,074 posts, read 4,925,427 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bUU View Post
Could you please reference the statistics indicating that, for the specific population that you're considering? The only source that seemed to indicate what you're referring to was United Van Lines, presuming using their one way trips as a means of measurement. That doesn't seem like very reliable info, especially in light of the fact that West Virginia has actually lost population (the only US state to do so over the last five years, according to US Census projections). Maybe they just use another carrier, or their situation is so dire that they cannot afford to have professional movers.
The trend has been going on for decades. NYC might have gained a bit of population in recent years but based on what I've read, the net population loss over the decades is big:

New York continues population drain: Empire Center - WNYC

The entire report from the Empire Center for Public Policy, Inc. which is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit group.

Empire State Exodus : Empire Center for Public Policy
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Old 01-11-2016, 12:59 PM
 
13,909 posts, read 7,411,228 times
Reputation: 25410
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlaskaErik View Post
More people are fleeing New York than any other state, except for New Jersey. I suspect cost of living is one of the primary factors.
Actually, Alaska has a declining population while New York and New Jersey don't. The most recent data from 2014 I've seen has West Virginia losing the most, Illinois, Connecticut, New Mexico, Alaska, and Vermont.

The inward migration of professional people to the NYC tri-state mostly offsets the outward migration of unskilled people who can't afford to live there.
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Old 01-11-2016, 01:19 PM
 
Location: New Mexico
6,578 posts, read 3,667,513 times
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I like warm weather but not the humidity of Florida (or Missouri) and not the oppressive heat of Arizona. There are exceptions in Arizona where it can be nice or tolerable in the summer. I moved to New Mexico because I like four seasons and we have a short winter with sub-freezing nighttime temps and a dusting of snow. Summers barely reach 100 on one or two days a year. I don't have AC in my house (use a swamp cooler and save $$$). No tornados to deal with. Cost of living is low and there are not many crowds...only two million in the state. There are lots of things to do. It is always sunny...almost. This is high desert so we got a whopping 11 inches of rain this year....don't expect to garden much unless you go with native plants. Last but not least...allergies will follow you or you will develop new ones wherever you go.
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Old 01-11-2016, 01:27 PM
bUU
 
Location: Georgia
11,882 posts, read 8,663,647 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevek64 View Post
The trend has been going on for decades.
No question about that; I'm just not sure that people aren't leaving other states, even more. I can definitely believe that retirement-related moves are heavier among the states that aren't featured high on "Best X Places to Retire", but I haven't seen data about that which I consider especially reliable. I'll keep looking.
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Old 01-11-2016, 10:53 PM
 
Location: Amongst the AZ Cactus
7,074 posts, read 4,925,427 times
Reputation: 7701
Quote:
Originally Posted by bUU View Post
No question about that; I'm just not sure that people aren't leaving other states, even more. I can definitely believe that retirement-related moves are heavier among the states that aren't featured high on "Best X Places to Retire", but I haven't seen data about that which I consider especially reliable. I'll keep looking.
There's lots of Census data out there on their site that probably has what you are looking for:

You might find this site interesting, based on regions:

Gaining and Losing Shares

Just grab the slider on the bottom and you can see a clear trend from region to region.

The long term trend is certainly towards the south and west overall from the mid-west/northeast and has been going on for many decades. While FL is a big retirement state, the census data shows AZ having an younger population than average compared to other states. I think I read something where the vast majority of people stay in the same town/general area they were born in and don't move when they retire.
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Old 01-12-2016, 05:43 AM
bUU
 
Location: Georgia
11,882 posts, read 8,663,647 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevek64 View Post
Just grab the slider on the bottom and you can see a clear trend from region to region.
Take a look at this visualization:

A Century of Population Change in the Age and Sex Composition of the Nation

Ignore the differences by age and sex, and just watch, as you go from 1900 to 2000, how the entire chart gets wider. That means that there are other explanations for the visualization you linked to, explanations other than that which you put forward. It shows, perhaps, that a lot of new immigrants (such as those from the Caribbean and Latin America) are settling in the South and West rather than the North.

So that's my point: The available data doesn't bear out claims about "Why?"
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Old 01-12-2016, 06:53 AM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,932,507 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bUU View Post
...So that's my point: The available data doesn't bear out claims about "Why?"
I think the answer is - "it depends". Especially in a state as large and diverse as Florida.

For example - I'd say the typical newcomer to our area is a young family with children. Which is leaving the high cost of living and taxes in the NE (especially in New York and New Jersey) and is attracted by our relatively lower cost of living/taxes and our school system (#1 ranked in the state).

A relatively new and important factor when it comes to growth in the Orlando area is an influx of Puerto Ricans leaving the financial mess in Puerto Rico. They're moving there because a lot of Puerto Ricans already live there.

The SE and SW coastal areas still attract older people/retirees. Mostly for the weather. With those from the I-95 corridor states gravitating to the SE coast - and those from the I-75 corridor states gravitating to the SW coast. A fair number of these people are snowbirds - but make Florida their primary state of residence for tax purposes.

Miami still continues to attract a lot of immigrants. Both poor ones and wealthy ones. Often from central and south America.

The Panhandle beach areas seem to be growing as summer beach destinations - and a place where some older people/retirees are moving.

And then there's The Villages - which is sui generis. Here are some eye-opening facts about The Villages:

82 Cool Facts About The Villages

Overall - Florida became the 3rd most populous state in the country in 2014. New York added some residents - but we added a lot more:

Florida Surpasses New York to Become Third Most Populous State

Robyn
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Old 01-12-2016, 07:18 AM
bUU
 
Location: Georgia
11,882 posts, read 8,663,647 times
Reputation: 8401
Interesting. So what we don't know is actually only, "How much is attributable to each?"
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Old 01-12-2016, 06:48 PM
 
852 posts, read 1,818,558 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robyn55 View Post
I think the answer is - "it depends". Especially in a state as large and diverse as Florida.

For example - I'd say the typical newcomer to our area is a young family with children. Which is leaving the high cost of living and taxes in the NE (especially in New York and New Jersey) and is attracted by our relatively lower cost of living/taxes and our school system (#1 ranked in the state).

A relatively new and important factor when it comes to growth in the Orlando area is an influx of Puerto Ricans leaving the financial mess in Puerto Rico. They're moving there because a lot of Puerto Ricans already live there.

The SE and SW coastal areas still attract older people/retirees. Mostly for the weather. With those from the I-95 corridor states gravitating to the SE coast - and those from the I-75 corridor states gravitating to the SW coast. A fair number of these people are snowbirds - but make Florida their primary state of residence for tax purposes.

Miami still continues to attract a lot of immigrants. Both poor ones and wealthy ones. Often from central and south America.

The Panhandle beach areas seem to be growing as summer beach destinations - and a place where some older people/retirees are moving.

And then there's The Villages - which is sui generis. Here are some eye-opening facts about The Villages:

82 Cool Facts About The Villages

Overall - Florida became the 3rd most populous state in the country in 2014. New York added some residents - but we added a lot more:

Florida Surpasses New York to Become Third Most Populous State

Robyn
Robyn,

I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Vero Beach and the entire "Treasure Coast" area for retirement relocation. What you feel are the pros, cons and future of these towns.

Thx
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Old 01-13-2016, 06:43 AM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,932,507 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by bUU View Post
Interesting. So what we don't know is actually only, "How much is attributable to each?"
I'm not sure anyone has done a comprehensive study. But I've seen fragmentary stuff. For example - stories about Puerto Ricans:

Puerto Ricans flee island's economic mess for U.S.

And sales records from a local development - Nocatee:

Nocatee ranks third again in national home sales | jacksonville.com

It's not all one way. There are cross-currents when it comes to something like Russians in Miami:

Why Do Russians Buy In Miami? - MNCS

And so-called "half backs" moving from Florida to other parts of the south:

Half backs key to South Carolina

I guess we are kind of "half-backs". We moved north - but stopped short at the state line. Robyn
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