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Old 01-14-2016, 04:13 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,925,663 times
Reputation: 6716

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Robyn, I agree about the research part but talking to other people can give you some thoughts to research and investigate especially years ago prior to the mainstreaming of the net. I was an early adopter but still there was a considerable time without. I wonder if over time being male plays a role especially if men were traditionally more likely to talk about. I had many events and opportunities to discuss and hear thoughts with folks. Funny and interesting side bar was that the head honcho in charge of our benefits program had a son on the same travel soccer team as we did and we were friends with them and others of like mind and thinking. So with all of that time there were some interesting conversations. I also was fortunate and had neighbors etc and of course work etc and community events etc. Yes men can be prone to bragging but fortunately they tend to flock together while others discuss the path they are driving on and not the speed limit they reached. Most were really of the slow and steady school and proud of it. Again being the DC area there were a lot with pensions and or 401's and 403's etc so there was some common ground to build on. It was the non work place savings and investings tha usually create the bragging. Oh yeah here is my brag for the day. I didn't get slaughtered today and may have actually recovered a toe or two
I started on investing chat boards in the early 90's (when I got my first modem). When I was in my early 40's. On Compuserve (anyone remember that?). Believe it or not - people like Mark Cuban and a fair number of big deal portfolio managers used to hang around on Compuserve way back then. Some pretty good traders too. It was really the wild west . Anyway - pre-internet/chat board for me is a looooong time ago.

As a lawyer/partner in a small private practice (my husband was in the same position) - I know zero about corporate or public pensions. Especially the defined benefit variety (my late FIL had one from a large public corporation - that's about it when it comes to our immediate family). I did learn about the best pension and profit sharing defined contribution plans for our small office/number of employees - and made the best use of them that I could for everyone in the office until they didn't make any sense (and then we terminated them and distributed the proceeds to plan participants - most - like me - did IRA rollovers). But the main thing is people in my position have no guarantees - whereas people in your position do (except for SS - which is bupkis - pin money for us).

I've been managing all of our (retirement) money since 1985 - when we retired. It has been an interesting journey through many different kinds of investing periods. I have always been heavy on bonds/fixed income. The only time I regretted that (and only then just a little) was in the late 80's and 90's. We had huge gains on big positions in long term zero coupon bonds then in our IRA accounts (larger than equities returns at the time - because interest rates were declining rapidly from extraordinarily high levels). But it's not as much fun to talk about zero coupon bonds as equities.

Haven't had any cause for regret since then.

BTW - I do chart some fundamental things that affect my thinking. For example - the SP500 earnings seem to be down 14% YOY - while the index price is only down 6% YOY. OTOH - dividends are up 8% YOY. Earnings and dividend yields are 2 of the biggest drivers of stock prices. On the third hand - dividend cuts in energy stocks - likely in the future - haven't materialized yet. What I see in the near future is - at best - bouncing around in a volatile trading range. My charts have lines here (on the low end of the trading range) and lines there (on the high end).

If you get all the money you need to live on from guaranteed pensions - SS - and the like - you live in a different world than I do. That's pretty much the bottom line. Robyn
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Old 01-14-2016, 04:31 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,925,663 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
i would disagree about risk mgmt vs market timing .

market timers usually are trying to beat market returns . even fund managers are attempting to beat their index's even in a bull market .

risk mgmt is not about beating index's or maximizing gains .

it is about reducing losses but also reducing gains as a side effect .

the peak of anything is never the reference forever or for everyone . while a y2k retiree has had 16 years of less then 2% real returns on equity's and is on par with the 1929 retiree balance wise that is not true for the 2001 ,2002 ,2003 , etc etc retirees . they are doing just fine . even the 1998 1999 retiree is doing fine and so far is no danger of failing .

singling out a single year that effected only the retiree of that year is rather meaningless for every other retiree .

if you want to talk about what older money pre 2000 may have seen, the time frame leading up to 2000 had 17 years averaging almost 14% cagr . so if you were invested from 1987 to 2000 ,even including 2000-2015 your returns are still very good , they just regressed back to the mean and went from spectacular to average with a 10% cagr average . .

cherry picking a single year never means much except to those who retired just that year ..

no one ever buys anything and expects to sell at at the exact high . in fact many highs are pricing errors and should never ever been at the level so they corrected . .

nasdaq at 5000 , gold at 800 back in the 1980's , even home prices , so that does not mean these are reference points forever .

in fact for many they may have had little in comparison invested in 2000 and the bulk of their money went in after that point , the last 7 or 8 years grew an amazing amount of money for them .

i know i am in that category . our big money first came in after 2000 so i couldn't care what the averages are from 2000 . the early money saw great returns from 1987 and in comparison to later what when after 2000 growth has been very good
My husband and I have been retired since 1985. You have been retired for what - a year or two? And neither of us has a safety net like a pension best I can recall. Get back to me in 10-20-30 years with your experiences and your thinking. When you will have some street cred (at least as far as I'm concerned).

My parents - who retired in the 70's - had it pretty tough at times - especially because of lousy market returns and lousy bond returns - and also inflation. People who retired at different times had it better (or even sometimes worse).

The best general advice I can give is to live well within one's means - no matter when one retires. Unless/until you're somewhat old - 70-75+. I am honestly looking forward to my RMDs a couple of years from now. It will be like a big pay raise . Robyn
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Old 01-14-2016, 04:49 PM
 
71,515 posts, read 71,694,121 times
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math is math robin . how you allocate the money you have just like like if you had a pension or paycheck and for what is another story just like when you worked .

but as long as the math holds up the income holds up . if the math is falling off you adjust .

this is not anything new or anything that requires experience . it is what it is.

these methods have been in use for decades .
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Old 01-14-2016, 05:14 PM
 
29,775 posts, read 34,860,277 times
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I would not trade places with Robyn or MathJak to much of the unknown! I have investment unknowns but they are no where as critical!
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Old 01-15-2016, 03:55 AM
bUU
 
Location: Georgia
11,881 posts, read 8,658,776 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robyn55 View Post
Ok - got it. Thanks. I also think that - with some (snarky) exceptions - people on CD tend to be friendly and try to be helpful.
I agree, though it isn't the easiest path. TuborgP pointed out that this thread's discussion was becoming in accessible to it natural intended audience. That wasn't because of snarkiness or callousness, but just natural default tendency for us humans to address questions in the manner we think of them by default, rather than necessarily the way others need us to address them.
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Old 01-15-2016, 05:19 AM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
4,809 posts, read 1,984,732 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by homenj View Post
Is there any place where your money could grow faster than in Fidelity? My mom says she loses a lot of money in Fidelity. Is Vanguard or any other company better?
Anyone who is in stocks has been losing money over the past year.
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Old 01-15-2016, 07:16 AM
 
71,515 posts, read 71,694,121 times
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but made a lot of money the last 6 . i know if you use the fidelity insight newsletter like quite a few here do you were up a bit last year . about the same had you sat in a cd .

it all averages out at the end to a respectable return .

if we get to far a head we fall back . eventually we are somewhere around the mean .

anyone who thinks you can have stocks rise 300% and that will be your return is fooling themselves . it all gets averaged out at the end of the day with the good and bad times .

to date you have never had a 10 or 20 year period you would have lost a penny from a 50% equity /50% bonds portfolio .
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Old 01-15-2016, 10:41 AM
 
Location: California
4,554 posts, read 5,468,926 times
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OP, I have Fidelity and my DH has Vanguard, we first noticed a slip with Vanguard's service and now with Fidelity, especially when you call in for something. I don't use the Fidelity higher end services as it seems to be only a way to market to people at a particular level. When I wanted to make a change to my account, it took forever to get the sales person to stop long enough for me to listen to my question. Recently it took three tries with Fidelity to submit my change of address and order a new debit card as the quality of their employees seems to declining, including Vanguard. My DH pays less in fees but also makes less than I do with Fidelity. These are just general thoughts so I hope it is a starting point.

I have read Ric Edleman's book, The Truth About Money and am seriously considering giving him a chance as he can explain complex situations in terms that are easier to use. Be careful who you chose, but always pay attention to what they are doing.
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Old 01-15-2016, 12:05 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,925,663 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heidi60 View Post
OP, I have Fidelity and my DH has Vanguard, we first noticed a slip with Vanguard's service and now with Fidelity, especially when you call in for something...
Can't you do most of the things you want to do on line? I can't remember the last time I called a brokerage firm. Robyn
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Old 01-15-2016, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,925,663 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
Anyone who is in stocks has been losing money over the past year.
Depends on the stocks. Certainly the FANG stocks (Facebook - Amazon - Netflix and Google) have done pretty well. Even when it comes to sectors - 2 SP 500 sectors - consumer discretionary and technology - were positive YOY as of the close yesterday. Note that I don't follow non-US markets - so I don't have a clue what those markets have done. Robyn
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