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Since the June CPI numbers were released this morning, I thought I'd start a thread on the progress toward next year's COLA, as we head into the fourth and final quarter of the fiscal year. Which is the only quarter that counts for that matter.
For the month of June, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. That equates to a 3.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 246.196. However, that does not mean that we have "earned" a 3.1% increase so far toward the next COLA. The current progress toward the next COLA is 2.72%, although that could go up or down depending upon what happens with the CPI over the next three months.
The third calendar quarter of 2017 (July, August, September) will be used as the base quarter to determine the 2019 Social Security and federal retiree (CSRS and FERS) COLAs. The June 2018 CPI-W figure was 2.72 percent higher than the average CPI-W for the third calendar quarter of 2017 (which was 239.668).
Oh, and let's not have a "personal" cost-of-living derail, or comments about Medicare taking whatever increase you'll get, or comments about how the CPI doesn't really measure inflation, etc. Let's try to keep this to factual information about the upcoming COLA or questions about the COLA itself. Thank you.
MMoB: Thank you for your post. You write it so that I almost understand it. I'm not a whiz when it comes to mathematics. I agree with you 100%, let's not muddy this info up with unproven information.
As of July 8th, The Motley Fool's "speculation" leans toward a 2019 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) of > 3%. The linked article is long, and makes you work for the numbers, but I noted that energy costs are driving inflation.
"On an unadjusted 12-month basis, aggregate energy prices have risen by 11.7% as of May 2018, with gasoline and fuel oil costs up by 21.8% and 25.3%, respectively. Shelter and transportation services also saw increases of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018...2019-cola.aspx
The factual announcement of the 2019 COLA will be in October.
November is when the 2019 Medicare Part B premium is announced.
At this stage, it's all speculation.
When you get this far into the fiscal year, it's a little more than speculation. The CPI-W figures are announced monthly, and there's only 3 left. You are correct with Medicare Part B. I know of no monthly tracking of that index.
As of July 8th, The Motley Fool's "speculation" leans toward a 2019 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) of > 3%. The linked article is long, and makes you work for the numbers, but I noted that energy costs are driving inflation.
"On an unadjusted 12-month basis, aggregate energy prices have risen by 11.7% as of May 2018, with gasoline and fuel oil costs up by 21.8% and 25.3%, respectively. Shelter and transportation services also saw increases of 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018...2019-cola.aspx
My guess, 2.7% - 3.3%, with an outside chance of 3.5%. Can't see it going lower than the current 2.7%.
My guess, 2.7% - 3.3%, with an outside chance of 3.5%. Can't see it going lower than the current 2.7%.
The June CPI-W was 3.1%. The July CPI-W will be released this Friday, August 10th. Hopefully, it won't drop below 3%. I don't want to see seniors jumping out of windows.
Hi, I'm thinking of starting my SS benefits next January. If I start in December instead, will I be able to get the COLA in January 2019?
Thanks
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