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Old 03-16-2016, 02:19 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,917,951 times
Reputation: 6716

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Quote:
Originally Posted by lenora View Post
Maryland is a closed primary state. More importantly, we don't get to vote until April 26th or two weeks before if we choose to vote early.

Immediately before New Hampshire's primary I seriously considered driving up there and declaring residency so I could vote in the primary. It's depressing that a lot of the candidates drop out before the rest of us have a chance to vote.
Well this may cheer you up - at least if you're a registered Republican (suspect you're not because - IIRC - you said you'll be voting for Clinton.

...Republican delegate-allocation rules are designed to help push a leading candidate like Trump over the top by awarding delegates more lopsidedly in the late contests than in the early ones.
In most of the primaries that happened to date, delegates have been allocated roughly proportionally ó if you get 40% of the vote, for instance, you get about 40% of the delegates.
But going forward, the contests will give large bonuses to the winning candidate, meaning that Trump can do much better by getting about the share of the vote he's gotten to date.

Trump nomination almost in the bag - Business Insider

Robyn

 
Old 03-16-2016, 02:38 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,917,951 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
...There are other issues that are more important to me. In addition to social security and Medicare, I am concerned about inflation. I hate it when I hear we need a greater rate of inflation. Why? Of course I am concerned because those of us on fixed or partially fixed incomes are not going to do well with inflation. I am concerned about my investments. I need them to grow to continue to provide part of my income for the next 20 or 30 years. Again, a healthy economy is going to be a big factor. I am interested in local services such as senior centers and senior services and lower property taxes for seniors...
Inflation can be a problem. But sometimes it isn't. Really depends on what you're earning and what the inflation rate is. The bottom line is your inflation-adjusted rate of return. I think that fixed income returns are in general on the low side these days. But - since you can still buy very high quality tax free municipal bonds yielding more than 3% - and YOY CPI is running at 1.37% - and 6 month inflation is running at negative .73% - well I'm ok with that. Better than I would be with a 5% return and 6% inflation.

Of course - your personal inflation rate may be higher or lower than the CPI. Mine is about the same - or perhaps somewhat lower.

When it comes to property taxes - many places - including Florida - have property tax breaks for low income seniors. I don't know why non-low income seniors should expect any property tax breaks not available to everyone else (like our homestead exemption in Florida). FWIW - I am not sure how property tax breaks can help a low-income senior who can't afford to heat his/her house in the winter. Overall - you can usually afford the place you live in - or you can't. If the latter - time to considering relocating.

We have various senior services where we live. Like a community center. We are basically too young to be interested in it (it's a very elderly crowd). Robyn
 
Old 03-16-2016, 03:01 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,917,951 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by lenora View Post
Sander's base is the relatively young college educated voter. I don't believe that more than a few Sanders voters will vote for Trump. Not so long ago I threatened to vote for Trump if Sanders won the votes but lost the nomination because of Clinton's super delegates. In truth, I could NEVER vote for a racist misogynist.
Just wonder what specifically leads you to believe that Trump is 1) a racist; and/or 2) a misogynist.

I don't think a misogynist would have placed his daughter in high responsible positions in his businesses:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivanka_Trump

Even Camille Paglia (one of my favorite commentators about almost everything because of her intellectual rigor) - who's a Sanders supporter - has changed her mind about Trump. Noting in part that he favors marrying "strong willed European women". She also said:

As for a debasement of the presidency by Trumpís slanging matches about penis size, that sorry process was initiated by a Democrat, Bill Clinton, who chatted about his underwear on TV, let Hollywood pals jump up and down on the bed in the Lincoln Bedroom, and played lewd cigar games with an intern in the White House offices.

I was wrong about Donald Trump: Camille Paglia on the GOP front-runnerís refreshing candor (and his impetuousness, too) - Salon.com

And I personally don't think someone is a racist simply because he/she opposes illegal immigration.

FWIW - here's a YouTube video (that went viral). Two black female Trump supporters giving the thumbs down to Megyn Kelly's debate performance WRT her treatment of Trump:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DP6S3KE2DaI

All women don't think alike . Robyn
 
Old 03-16-2016, 03:38 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,917,951 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by lenora View Post
Sander's base is the relatively young college educated voter...
I suspect you're right - but it's only part of the Sanders equation IMO. When you look at the handful of counties in Florida that Sanders actually won - they're all fairly small fairly poor rural counties in the Panhandle. He didn't win our large university counties - Leon (FSU) or Alachua (UF). Although - to be fair - these counties have large black populations that probably went heavily for Clinton. These rural counties are also where Trump on the whole did better than his state average (Trump won all but 1 of Florida's 67 counties).

Primary results: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, county by county | US news | The Guardian

Quote:
...I don't believe that more than a few Sanders voters will vote for Trump...
Knowing what I know about Florida - I suspect Sanders had a big 2nd amendment constituency in the Panhandle and other parts of the state. Don't know how many voters in the country put 2nd amendment issues among their top 5 - but I suspect these Sanders voters would go to Trump.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positio...endment-rights

I also think there's a large number of Sanders supporters who are blue collar white Democrats. Especially of the male variety. The old "Reagan Democrats". Who are voting for Sanders (often in states with closed primaries like Florida). But sometimes crossing over to Trump in states with open primaries. I think these Sanders voters would vote for Trump too if Clinton is nominated. Robyn
 
Old 03-16-2016, 05:01 PM
 
6,212 posts, read 4,715,040 times
Reputation: 12697
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robyn55 View Post
....

Knowing what I know about Florida - I suspect Sanders had a big 2nd amendment constituency in the Panhandle and other parts of the state. .......
I personally think this is a big issue. If Hillary is elected this issue alone will destroy her chances of a successful presidency. At least that is my opinion. I think there is a high percentage of gun owners who would not object to some additional controls. Hillary is way beyond that. First she is insulting when she refers to those who support second amendment rights. She seems to call them either gun nuts or "lobbyists." Clearly the NRA is a lobby but it also represents tens of millions of Americans. Second as with many of her ideas she is underhanded and devious. Society barely supports our current legal system because of the unfairness and the fact that those with money can win and those without routinely lose. She has proposed using the legal system to tie up and put the gun makers out of business.


Regardless of anyone's personal opinion on further gun controls and restrictions, this is a hot issue. She already has enough people who do not trust her. A major voting bloc against her will mean her administration will be under even more attack than we have seen with Obama.


As we move further into the primaries, it seems clear the choice will come down to Trump or Hillary. As far as I can see Trump is a wild card and unpredictable. Hillary would have a deadlocked administration and barely functional Federal government. That still might be the better of two bad choices. I don't know if I could vote for either. I am just trying to understand the possible outcomes. I think I will be cashing out of the stock market well before the election.
 
Old 03-16-2016, 05:20 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
12,223 posts, read 12,483,575 times
Reputation: 19364
If you want Medicare to continue, taxes will have to go up. The Medicare system is in serious trouble. SS is better funded. What Sanders would like to do is eliminate the health insurance industry entirely and go to a single payer system like Medicare for everyone. It would certainly save money, but there would be great wailing and gnashing of teeth from the insurance industry. What Ryan would like to do is eliminate Medicare and just offer vouchers to seniors, who would have to buy private insurance. That would save the feds big bucks, but dump the whole expense on the elderly.

"Going after Wall Street" primarily means eliminating the tax loopholes that let gigabuck corporations get away without paying any taxes. That means an end to corporate welfare and taxing offshore profits. Another proposal is a transaction tax on stock and bond trades. A tenth of a cent per share wouldn't make much difference in the price, but with over a billion shares a day traded it would add up fast. This is a popular idea, because it nicks the day traders and speculators, while leaving the "buy and hold" investors virtually untouched. Your tax on selling 1000 shares would be $1.

We can expect that capital gains will eventually be taxed like ordinary income, with exemptions like the homestead exemption, and possibly income averaging to accommodate occasional sales of investment property. If you have an IRA or 401k your capital gains are already taxed as ordinary income.

SS taxes will have to increase. The first increase will probably be removing the income cap on contributions.

Of course, if the radicals have their way they will trash the entire system and push the country into a very hard spot. I doubt they will get away with it, but they may block needed reforms until fixing the system is outrageously expensive.
 
Old 03-16-2016, 05:42 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,917,951 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
I personally think this is a big issue.

If Hillary is elected this issue alone will destroy her chances of a successful presidency. At least that is my opinion. I think there is a high percentage of gun owners who would not object to some additional controls. Hillary is way beyond that. First she is insulting when she refers to those who support second amendment rights. She seems to call them either gun nuts or "lobbyists." Clearly the NRA is a lobby but it also represents tens of millions of Americans. Second as with many of her ideas she is underhanded and devious. Society barely supports our current legal system because of the unfairness and the fact that those with money can win and those without routinely lose. She has proposed using the legal system to tie up and put the gun makers out of business.

Regardless of anyone's personal opinion on further gun controls and restrictions, this is a hot issue. She already has enough people who do not trust her. A major voting bloc against her will mean her administration will be under even more attack than we have seen with Obama.
Although it's not a big issue for me - I agree that it is for lot of people.

OTOH - if I ever thought my right to buy a buy a gun was threatened in any way - I'd buy one the next day. I've never bought a gun - but want to preserve my option to do so.

Quote:
As we move further into the primaries, it seems clear the choice will come down to Trump or Hillary. As far as I can see Trump is a wild card and unpredictable. Hillary would have a deadlocked administration and barely functional Federal government. That still might be the better of two bad choices. I don't know if I could vote for either. I am just trying to understand the possible outcomes. I think I will be cashing out of the stock market well before the election.
Who the heck knows what a President Trump might do? I'm willing to give it a try .

FWIW - I wouldn't cash out of investments on the basis of election results. Or buy anything either. I don't think markets are all that correlated with election results. I trade/invest on the basis of charts. Which tend to reflect the state of the economy - also perhaps what the Fed does - more than who wins elections. Robyn
 
Old 03-16-2016, 06:03 PM
 
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach FL
14,628 posts, read 17,917,951 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
If you want Medicare to continue, taxes will have to go up. The Medicare system is in serious trouble. SS is better funded. What Sanders would like to do is eliminate the health insurance industry entirely and go to a single payer system like Medicare for everyone. It would certainly save money, but there would be great wailing and gnashing of teeth from the insurance industry. What Ryan would like to do is eliminate Medicare and just offer vouchers to seniors, who would have to buy private insurance. That would save the feds big bucks, but dump the whole expense on the elderly.

"Going after Wall Street" primarily means eliminating the tax loopholes that let gigabuck corporations get away without paying any taxes. That means an end to corporate welfare and taxing offshore profits. Another proposal is a transaction tax on stock and bond trades. A tenth of a cent per share wouldn't make much difference in the price, but with over a billion shares a day traded it would add up fast. This is a popular idea, because it nicks the day traders and speculators, while leaving the "buy and hold" investors virtually untouched. Your tax on selling 1000 shares would be $1.

We can expect that capital gains will eventually be taxed like ordinary income, with exemptions like the homestead exemption, and possibly income averaging to accommodate occasional sales of investment property. If you have an IRA or 401k your capital gains are already taxed as ordinary income.

SS taxes will have to increase. The first increase will probably be removing the income cap on contributions.

Of course, if the radicals have their way they will trash the entire system and push the country into a very hard spot. I doubt they will get away with it, but they may block needed reforms until fixing the system is outrageously expensive.
I am not sure you understand how Medicare financing works.

Part A is "free". I am not sure what the real cost of part A is - but I suspect it's about $200-300/month for seniors. Part B is $104.90 for most people. And that is approximately 25% of the cost of part B. And all but high imcome earners ($85k/single - $170k couple) and those going on Medicare this year pay that $104.90. So where would the extra come from when it comes to everyone else?

Your approval of taxing financial transactions is ridiculously laughable and naive. Who do you think would be affected by that? Not the big guys - who will transact all of their business outside the US. Just the moms and pops with accounts at Fidelity. Which would - in the end - harm seniors who are investing and sometimes trading and not bring in any meaningful revenue.

In terms of taxing "offshore companies" - well it's kind of like paying tax when you buy something on Amazon. If Amazon has a physical place of business in your state these days - you'll pay sales tax. If it doesn't - you won't. You can't tax any corporation just because you care to. Robyn
 
Old 03-16-2016, 06:05 PM
 
6,212 posts, read 4,715,040 times
Reputation: 12697
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
If you want Medicare to continue, taxes will have to go up. ....

We can expect that capital gains will eventually be taxed like ordinary income........

SS taxes will have to increase. The first increase will probably be removing the income cap on contributions........

There are options besides more and more taxes and/or lesser and lesser benefits. We could take some of the money that we spend elsewhere and spend it on social security, healthcare and even heaven forbid new programs such as daycare and eldercare.


If I had the choice I would vote to chop the h3ll out of the military budget.
 
Old 03-16-2016, 07:26 PM
 
2,677 posts, read 1,069,237 times
Reputation: 5167
Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
I certainly don't want to discuss politics. There is a separate forum for that. I am concerned about the results of the next election on those of us who are retired or already retired.


As a retiree, I have certain needs and expectations from government. I need to see social security remain viable. I need to see Medicare/Medicaid remain intact. Even with the current programs I have concerns about healthcare costs. My supplement and out of pocket costs are very high. The future need for skilled nursing care is always a possible concern. In addition to social security and healthcare costs, many of us are also dependent on withdrawals and returns on our investments. Also I live in a very high cost area. To some extent my income matches those costs but I am also at risk for seeing some of my costs increase and for seeing additional taxation.


Again, I do not want to discuss who should be the next President, but I do want to predict and potentially adjust to the likely outcomes. As I see it there are some likely trends.


If Bernie is elected we can expect he will push for added benefits. Unfortunately those benefits seem to involve things like free college tuition which does not help us seniors. Taxes are likely to increase. In addition Bernie talks about "going after Wall Street." I am not sure what that means except he wants to increase capital gains taxes. In addition to more taxes when we try to withdraw from our investments, the stock market is likely to slide severely. I am not sure what Hillary want to do. She is perhaps more moderate on spending but she for sure wants to increase capital gains taxes.


On the Republican side, I have an even harder time understanding the platform. Trump seems to enjoy making outrageous statements to gain attention and he also makes lots of promises but beyond those I am lost. Cruz and Rubio don't seem to have much of a chance for being elected, but they seem more interested in evangelistic ideals such as killing gay marriage and eliminating abortions. The Republicans seem to want to spend much more on the military so costs and taxes are not likely to remain constant with them either.


What do you think of the likely outcomes and -- beyond the useless act of voting -- what can we do to adapt?
Many retirees here move out of their current area to an out of town location where expenses are lower.

Voting is never useless. There is something called strategic voting. Look it up.
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