U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Retirement
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 04-04-2016, 07:37 AM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
3,747 posts, read 4,236,540 times
Reputation: 6867

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
interesting reading about the issues of using the biggest , most widely quoted survey , the acs survey which has replaced the census long form we all used to get .

biggest issue is the narrower the geographic area like zip code the bigger the margin of error , that is the point i was raising about mis-judging your neighbors resources .

as stated "Because the ACS surveys a sample of the population (unlike the Decennial Census), ACS data are estimates, not population counts, and are subject to sampling variability.
Especially at smaller geographies, the ACS margins of error sometimes get quite large. A rule of thumb suggested by the Census Bureau is not to use estimates for which there is a margin of error greater than one quarter of the estimate.

Data Quality Issues with the American Community Survey (ACS)
Which is why your source (rather than the Census Bureau) explains the statistical steps that need to be taken to adjust for the margin of error.

BTW, several years ago I failed to complete the survey and was subsequently visited by a nice Census Bureau lady. I willfully and honestly supplied the info she needed while one of my doggies sat on her lap.

FWIW, I live in a family oriented, upper income, neighborhood.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 04-04-2016, 07:40 AM
 
29,946 posts, read 34,988,163 times
Reputation: 11845
Quote:
Originally Posted by lenora View Post
Which is why your source (rather than the Census Bureau) explains the statistical steps that need to be taken to adjust for the margin of error.

BTW, several years ago I failed to complete the survey and was subsequently visited by a nice Census Bureau lady. I willfully and honestly supplied the info she needed while one of my doggies sat on her lap.

FWIW, I live in a family oriented, upper income, neighborhood.
Your last sentence says it all, by hook or crook you are aware of the relative wealth of your neighborhood and broader community. That was my point it is a notion most of us pay attention to. My response was to a statement that why does anyone care about knowing.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-04-2016, 07:41 AM
 
72,315 posts, read 72,246,407 times
Reputation: 49843
exactly but as i said when you get down to zip code or small town level the inaccuracy may make it unreliable . the smaller the area the worse it gets . you can see when it gets down to you and your neighbor and only one of you gets the survey there can be a 50% error if your neighbor is struggling .

it gets even worse when it gets to counting wealth because so much goes under the radar like life insurance products or annuity products .

they have values that can not be fully counted unless they are being drawn off as income currently .

you can have a 100k pension due you and not much savings . by all current counts you have little to anyone guessing about you today if you are not collecting anything yet .

so arriving at conclusions about future retirees and their resources can be quite skewed without very high sample rates or in fact going back to asking all on the long form. you can't know a lot if you are not told .

Last edited by mathjak107; 04-04-2016 at 07:50 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-04-2016, 07:46 AM
 
29,946 posts, read 34,988,163 times
Reputation: 11845
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
exactly but as i said when you get down to zip code level the inaccuracy may make it unreliable .
Depends on the degree of certainty you need. I never needed the balance sheet of individuals but the aggregated relative wealth of the area. Housing cost is starter especially when moving into a community of new homes with a decent number of younger families. That suggest a lot about their ability to buy and hopefully moving forward they can sustain it. It especially becomes important for some of us when contemplating a move in or near retirement. Many retirement communities make it clear the have a certain affluence level and are trying to keep it that way. They can do it increasingly by going to a pay as you go model for CCRC living and no pay and you go. Also the Del Webb communities here cluster their streets by housing cost and keep the highs together and lows together. They have three pricing ranges and their streets are clustered based on.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-04-2016, 08:08 AM
 
Location: NC Piedmont
3,984 posts, read 2,909,651 times
Reputation: 6379
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Depends on the degree of certainty you need. I never needed the balance sheet of individuals but the aggregated relative wealth of the area. Housing cost is starter especially when moving into a community of new homes with a decent number of younger families. That suggest a lot about their ability to buy and hopefully moving forward they can sustain it. It especially becomes important for some of us when contemplating a move in or near retirement. Many retirement communities make it clear the have a certain affluence level and are trying to keep it that way. They can do it increasingly by going to a pay as you go model for CCRC living and no pay and you go. Also the Del Webb communities here cluster their streets by housing cost and keep the highs together and lows together. They have three pricing ranges and their streets are clustered based on.
I think you are also in my area, so you are probably aware of what happened with Wake County schools. They were using that housing cost data to homogenize the student population to keep from having poor schools and rich schools. It worked pretty well from an academic standpoint but a lot of the wealthy parents hated it; they didn't like their kids being bussed to a school to a less prosperous part of town. It was an odd scene for a while; there were education administrators from all over the world visiting because they wanted to emulate the system and they had to walk past demonstrations to get in the building. They eventually changed it to suit the parents better. Anyway, the point of that is the housing data idea did seem to work as far as fairly accurate way to determine the socio-economic strata.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-04-2016, 08:11 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
23,845 posts, read 17,754,973 times
Reputation: 27896
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Siegel View Post
I think the point is that it's not just the 1% or the 2% or people who inherited money from Uncle Bob. It's the top 15 or 20 percent and *you can do this*. But most people haven't.
That's my feeling too. The top 20% are doing well, and that's generally a sliding scale somewhere between "comfortable" and extremely wealthy.

Beyond that, it can be a mess between some, but not enough, savings, paycheck to paycheck, to those with chronic financial problems.

As for me personally, I don't feel the least bit comfortable, but I'm not quite 30. If something happens to me, I can spring back fairly quickly. I don't have much in the way of assets that I'd lose during a period of job loss (wouldn't raid retirement savings as those are exempt from BK). In some ways, as long as I could put a roof over my head and have food on the table, a fresh start sounds appealing. Someone in their 50s or 60s - it's going to be a lot harder.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-04-2016, 08:43 AM
 
29,946 posts, read 34,988,163 times
Reputation: 11845
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReachTheBeach View Post
I think you are also in my area, so you are probably aware of what happened with Wake County schools. They were using that housing cost data to homogenize the student population to keep from having poor schools and rich schools. It worked pretty well from an academic standpoint but a lot of the wealthy parents hated it; they didn't like their kids being bussed to a school to a less prosperous part of town. It was an odd scene for a while; there were education administrators from all over the world visiting because they wanted to emulate the system and they had to walk past demonstrations to get in the building. They eventually changed it to suit the parents better. Anyway, the point of that is the housing data idea did seem to work as far as fairly accurate way to determine the socio-economic strata.
Of course it did. You can drive around North Raleigh and Cary and get one picture and drive around other places and get another. We seek neighborhoods within those areas based on what folks can afford. Wait hold on Del Webb Carolina preserves is sorta or at least advertised as being Cary and Carolina Arbors is associated with Brier Creek with only casual mention of Durham.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-04-2016, 08:44 AM
 
29,946 posts, read 34,988,163 times
Reputation: 11845
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
That's my feeling too. The top 20% are doing well, and that's generally a sliding scale somewhere between "comfortable" and extremely wealthy.

Beyond that, it can be a mess between some, but not enough, savings, paycheck to paycheck, to those with chronic financial problems.

As for me personally, I don't feel the least bit comfortable, but I'm not quite 30. If something happens to me, I can spring back fairly quickly. I don't have much in the way of assets that I'd lose during a period of job loss (wouldn't raid retirement savings as those are exempt from BK). In some ways, as long as I could put a roof over my head and have food on the table, a fresh start sounds appealing. Someone in their 50s or 60s - it's going to be a lot harder.
Yes and that top 20 percent is one heck of a lot of people and they tend to live and work together. So as we often say it is what we know and there are a lot of us. The telling stat is the number/percentage of the top 20% over 65,
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-04-2016, 09:15 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
23,845 posts, read 17,754,973 times
Reputation: 27896
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Yes and that top 20 percent is one heck of a lot of people and they tend to live and work together. So as we often say it is what we know and there are a lot of us. The telling stat is the number/percentage of the top 20% over 65,
Well, yeah, the well-off tend to live fairly close together. That's pretty much common sense.

I live in an affluent suburb of Indianapolis. Many folks here are fairly well-off and established. I have a beer with the same group of guys on Sundays, all of whom are probably 60 or older, and most have had successful careers. If I asked around our neighborhood, I'd get a rosy picture of how people are doing. If I went into some poor urban neighborhood in the city, I'd find a lot of people who don't know if they'll eat tonight or if they can pay the light bill.

In some areas, there aren't going to be that many people that are in the top 20% nationally. Back home in Tennessee, my hometown's median household income is just in the mid-$30k range. Where I'm at now, median HHI is over $100k, but this is a wealthy enclave.

What can you really save on HHI in the $35k range? Consider half the households are probably bringing in less than $35k annually. The top 20% in that area are not likely anywhere as well as the top 20% nationally, so you might have to go to the top 10% locally to get to that top 20% nationally. In short, you have fewer people who are going to be self-sufficient in retirement. Local services are slim pickings already, and within a rapidly aging, poorer than average population, there are going to be a lot of poor old folks in east TN taxing already frayed social services.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-04-2016, 09:18 AM
 
29,946 posts, read 34,988,163 times
Reputation: 11845
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReachTheBeach View Post
I think you are also in my area, so you are probably aware of what happened with Wake County schools. They were using that housing cost data to homogenize the student population to keep from having poor schools and rich schools. It worked pretty well from an academic standpoint but a lot of the wealthy parents hated it; they didn't like their kids being bussed to a school to a less prosperous part of town. It was an odd scene for a while; there were education administrators from all over the world visiting because they wanted to emulate the system and they had to walk past demonstrations to get in the building. They eventually changed it to suit the parents better. Anyway, the point of that is the housing data idea did seem to work as far as fairly accurate way to determine the socio-economic strata.
Back when all that was coming down about the schools, I was very involved in the CD Raleigh forum discussions about. We have a tour we have used twice in the last couple of months with house guests not familiar with the area or wanting a different tour. If you start out by going down town depending on the way you come in you get one economic picture. Show them the Progress Center for the performing arts and the area just south of there and Shaw University and you get an immediate contrast. Show a little bit more of the historic district, the kids museum etc.
Then head out the back way to the Farmers Market and if you hit during lunch hours and go to the fish market you get a feel there of the work crowd having their Calabash (fried fish). Plus you get a feel of the folks shopping at what is open in the bigger market.
From there hop on 40 toward Cary and highlight the Asian Market and then to Cross Roads shopping and the massive shopping area there and you realize there has to be money somewhere for those stores to stay in business.
Head from there to Kildaire Farm road and the shops there and visit City BarbQ for some good suburban Q. Take a drive around that area and head where ever you came from or visit North Raleigh and Brier Creek and Carolina Preserve and or Crabtree Valley and you realize a lot of wealth and poverty, easily recognized and distinguished.

This is not counting the many other areas of the Triangle of varying affluence. However what is key to this is that many of the residences of the Triangle came from on school small districts and only had to provide for themselves. This share the wealth experiment was as you note not to their liking. Now how do we thing they will feel about a bigger Wake County Community aging support system? Especially the folks in the many higher end CCRC's.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Retirement
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top