The life expectancy game, my scenario (55, money plan, pension, supplement)

[Giesela]

I'd thought about posting this but always decided against. I think reading West Coasters thread changed my mind. Just my muddled thoughts on how the considerations of life expectancy play in my retirement decision.

Most mornings I skim through the CNN website. I run into health "articles" over and over and over on the same topics:

The alone die early
The fat die early
The sedentary die early
I smoked for 26 years (so not only will I die earlier but many people seem to think I deserve to die)
I live in Ohio and will probably move to MI so I'm going to die earlier than everyone else in the US!
USA Life Expectancy White American Female
(Seriously if you want to live long move to Wash DC or Japan)
Of course on the plus side I'm not poor and live in the south.

But really at this point by the time I finish reading my morning news I feel surprised to be alive,
and feeling quite scared. These articles didn'tmake me decide to retire but they certainly have provided support for or justification for retiring at 60.

Rhere is the concern that you'll outlive your money. There is the concern that you'll work too long and never get to enjoy retirement.

People with less money worry more about the outlive part and tend to work longer. Makes easy sense.

But whenever someone comes along and says, I'm going to retire even if I'm the poorer side then they have weighted the concern about not living long enough to enjoyment retirement higher.
A gutsy, scary and potentially devastating move that often brings out a lot of naysayers. I guess the people who went the other way aren't around to tell us about it.

The average US life span, is what almost 79, higher for women. Of course there is that whole thing with reaching 65. Seems like if you make it through your 60's your shot at making it into your 80s or late 80s goes up. The longer you live, the longer you live.

This from the SS website:
A man reaching age 65 today can expect to live, on average, until age 84.3.
A woman turning age 65 today can expect to live, on average, until age 86.6.

And those are just averages. About one out of every four 65-year-olds today will live past age 90, and one out of 10 will live past age 95.
So 3 out of 4 65 year olds wont make it past 90

And of course lots of people seem to die in their early 60s. Another thing CNN brings to me with my morning coffee is the weekly death of someone famous and often wealthy) in their 60s.

This website
Lifespan Calculator – Test Your Life Expectancy || NM

said I would live till 87 even though I'm fat and smoked for 25 yrs which makes no sense to me. Social Security says 86 without asking any health questions.

I know many people here assume the best/worse case scenario so you can affordthat nursing home and I realize you can't know when you are going to die. However it seems like ignoring these studies about longevity and at least thinking about them as applied to your own history is ignoring a lot of research.

Should I take 7 years off for being alone and another 7 for being obese and sedentary? That brings me down to roughly 72. Bump it up for long living parents....maybe 75? Hopefully will be less sedentary after retirement...77? How about the previous smoking history? Back to 75? No real health problems right now other than obesity so back to 77?

So anyway, I'm with West Coaster. My parents lived long but our lives have been completely different and I don't expect to live as long as they did (88 and 91). I'm going out at 60 even though many would recommend against. I'm feeling less competent at work and have not been happy in this location (I've put on 30 lbs in the 9 yrs I've lived here). So I'm retiring from something and not to anything which is exactly what you aren't supposed to do. I have not figured out my money plan to anyones idea of a real plan. But I have looked at it and thought about it and money wise I should be...ok. I won't have the retirement that many do of travel and many other choices. But I have enough (unless the market tanks or my new worry of inflation, not near term but its going to happen some day)
My decision which I made last year has only been reinforced by the recent discovery of a spot on my lung. Most are apparently nothing but you have to wait 6 months for another CT scan to see. If its something I should have gone out at my minimum retirement age of 56. If its nothing I'm taking it as a sign, get out and enjoy while you can.

US Life Expectancy

Obesity could 'rob you' of 20 years of health - Health News - NHS Choices

Being Overweight Shortens Life Span

http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/0...ngs-toll/?_r=0

Could Loneliness Shorten a Life?

According to that article even though people are happy alone it doesn't matter.
"That doesn't mean that folks who happily live alone are completely off the hook, however. In fact, the study found that people who lived alone had a 32 percent higher risk of an earlier death than those who lived with another person."

Social isolation, loneliness, and all-cause mortality in older men and women
The above is a academic research article with lots o statistics and hard to understand. But basically the socially isolated (vs. lonely) die younger.

The results show people with strong social relationships increased their odds of survival over a certain time period by 50 percent, the researchers say. That's on par with ceasing smoking, and nearly twice as beneficial as physical activity in terms of decreasing your odds of dying early.

Want to Live Longer? Get Some Friends


http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...and-death.html

[jrkliny]

Nothing new about this. We spend our lives eating poorly, not getting enough exercise and often smoking and overeating. Then as we get older we start to worry about our health and how long we will live. We all know some of the factors associated with an early death. In addition to eating, being over weight, smoking and lack of exercise, luck and genetics play big factors. Depression and unhappiness go along with poor health and early death although it is not clear if those are symptoms or causes.


I am always amazed at the number of people who had decades of unhealthy living and then try to reverse everything in their old age. I wonder how much difference any of that can make. Personally I am struggling with weight gain for the first time in my life. I suspect that is a permanent condition as I age. I am trying to get more exercise. Even if I don't live longer, I can feel the difference with even moderate amounts of exercise. I gave up smoking 8 years ago and there is nothing I can now do to compensate for the bad choice in smoking most of my adult life.

[Vision67]

Maybe when you're younger you are just too busy to think about how your current lifestyle choices impact longevity.

Once you are retired and things slow down and people you know start dying off your focus on the remaining length of your candle intensifies.

As Keynes said, "in the long run we're all dead."

So make the best of every day.

[MadManofBethesda]

It's a lot to consider, but some of your financial worries seem unfounded. Many people who want to retire at 60 as you do need to plan diligently for how they are going to draw down retirement funds on which to live until Social Security kicks in at 62. They also need to figure out what effect taking SS at 62 will have on their lifetime benefits. Additionally, they need to plan and account for health insurance and expenses. However, you have the benefit of a federal pension, including a supplement that you will receive until you're eligible for SS at 62. Moreover, you'll have your employer-subsidized FEHBP medical insurance to carry you until you're eligible for Medicare (and beyond, if you so choose). Finally, your concern about inflation should be lessoned because your FERS pension (as well as your SS benefit) is indexed to the CPI, so your income won't be ravaged should inflation skyrocket as you fear.

The bottom line is that although for many people, taking retirement at 60 is thought of as "early" and could be considered risky, as a federal retiree, you've actually worked 4 years past the minimum retirement age and would seem to be in fine financial shape (especially if you have a healthy TSP balance).

[Mr5150]

My father in law drank, smoked and was a loner. He died at 92. You can do everything right and get hit by a car at age 65. Worrying about the future will only rob you of enjoying today.

[Vision67]

This reminds me of an old George Burns joke:

To George, who at that time was 96:

"George, you chase women, drink whiskey, and smoke cigars. What does your doctor say about that?"

George: "My doctor is dead."

[newcomputer]

from Giesela's post:


"According to that article even though people are happy alone it doesn't matter.
"That doesn't mean that folks who happily live alone are completely off the hook, however. In fact, the study found that people who lived alone had a 32 percent higher risk of an earlier death than those who lived with another person."According to that article even though people are happy alone it doesn't matter."




My husband would have been dead at least 10 years earlier if he had lived alone. I was there to call 911 and to take care of him. He wanted to live.


I am ready to go. I'm not unhappy. In fact, I enjoy life and feel very lucky to have these retirement years, but I don't want a longer life if it means a dependent one. So I don't worry about having a heart attack or stroke or whatever and being alone with no one to save me.


I don't worry about running out of money. I could live on a lot less.


I don't worry about much. Maybe because I don't read those articles about retirement.

[ladyalicemore]

Your honest and candid post does outline some of the dilemmas of retirement planning really clearly. But a "risk factor" does not constitute a certainty. I have a friend who says that he regards his odds of living to 90 as 50-50: he will either die earlier than that or he won't.

Insurance companies use probability tables but their data samplings survey huge groups of the population. Individual results will vary.

If I were of your inclination, I would take retirement at 60 but have a back-up plan--perhaps retraining to get a job in a new field if you decide it's best to go back to work. What will you do for health insurance 'til 65, too?

I still like working and all these question marks mean I am not sure what to do, and at 67 I am a bit over FRA. My mother died at 69; my father developed early onset Alzheimer's in his late 40s (probably--diagnosed later, though). One would think I would want the early retirement option but it doesn't seem appealing to me at all.

I live alone and enjoy it. Stress kills a lot of people, and to me relationships that aren't working are a lot more stressful than peaceful solitude. Just my thoughts. . . . It's such an individual decision for every one.

[reneeh63]

Originally Posted by jrkliny

Nothing new about this. We spend our lives eating poorly, not getting enough exercise and often smoking and overeating. Then as we get older we start to worry about our health and how long we will live. We all know some of the factors associated with an early death. In addition to eating, being over weight, smoking and lack of exercise, luck and genetics play big factors. Depression and unhappiness go along with poor health and early death although it is not clear if those are symptoms or causes.


I am always amazed at the number of people who had decades of unhealthy living and then try to reverse everything in their old age. I wonder how much difference any of that can make. Personally I am struggling with weight gain for the first time in my life. I suspect that is a permanent condition as I age. I am trying to get more exercise. Even if I don't live longer, I can feel the difference with even moderate amounts of exercise. I gave up smoking 8 years ago and there is nothing I can now do to compensate for the bad choice in smoking most of my adult life.

Hmmmm...people who do the wrong stuff and then try to correct it - bad people and it won't work anyway?

You, lucky genes and a good weight until now - but at THIS point it's "permanent"? Then you turn around and say that you gave up smoking, you're exercising? Are you just being fatalistic? Why make these changes if you don't think they'll work for you or anyone else?

Many of us have had the benefits of genetics and never had to worry much about weight, diabetes, high blood pressure but sometimes they start to creep up on you in your sixties and higher. Now we finally understand the anguish others have gone through earlier who have to actually WORK at even the outward appearance of being healthy. We do like to take credit for our genetics.

[reneeh63]

Originally Posted by ladyalicemore

Your honest and candid post does outline some of the dilemmas of retirement planning really clearly. But a "risk factor" does not constitute a certainty. I have a friend who says that he regards his odds of living to 90 as 50-50: he will either die earlier than that or he won't.

Insurance companies use probability tables but their data samplings survey huge groups of the population. Individual results will vary.

If I were of your inclination, I would take retirement at 60 but have a back-up plan--perhaps retraining to get a job in a new field if you decide it's best to go back to work. What will you do for health insurance 'til 65, too?

I still like working and all these question marks mean I am not sure what to do, and at 67 I am a bit over FRA. My mother died at 69; my father developed early onset Alzheimer's in his late 40s (probably--diagnosed later, though). One would think I would want the early retirement option but it doesn't seem appealing to me at all.

I live alone and enjoy it. Stress kills a lot of people, and to me relationships that aren't working are a lot more stressful than peaceful solitude. Just my thoughts. . . . It's such an individual decision for every one.

Seriously, the odds of finding a job in your sixties that pays more than minimum wage? If you have much doubt, KEEP WORKING! Don't fool yourself that once you decide you'll be able to turn on a dime and find a job, new training or not. You (people in general) need a better backup plan than that.