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Old 11-14-2016, 03:34 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
3,610 posts, read 1,625,423 times
Reputation: 6122

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
Though I'm less voracious about absorbing information, I've observed what you've observed. I also saw the stock market crash of 1987, having started paying attention to stocks (also as a kid) in the early 1980s. When other children were watching Sesame Street, I was watching Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser. I thought that "elves" referred to stock-market prognosticators, who made high/low/medium predictions around Christmastime, for where the Dow would close after the following year.

And yet, the only thing that I've learned, is that I've learned nothing. Every dip is followed by a recovery, but how far does the ensuing recovery progress? A dip's a buying opportunity; but would one have profited more, by having bought-and-hold all along? Or is it better to oscillate in-and-out? What's a screaming bargain, and what's "cheap" numerically but still overpriced? And what if an overpriced stock (or an entire market) continues rocketing ahead, for years and years?

Yes, it is better to invest in the market, than in CDs. But how much better? Over what time scale? And in what conditions? History is a guide, but not a dispositive one. Mostly it just guides us to greater humility.
Totally fair Ohio. The market is highly emotive. The day to day is always a crap-shoot, and macroeconomic events will cause correlated movements that don't actually make any sense. That's your opportunity. How big or small of an opportunity you need depends on how you want to trade.

The only time I've ever traded the market was in early 2009. Everything was on sale, not everything was going to go bankrupt. I jumped in, with all credit cards maxed for advances, the first couple days of March. So I missed it by a week or so, and can tell you it was a scary week, but I was fine with what I'd bought. You don't have to be right about the market. Just a stock. In this case, CAT was worth more than 23, MMM was worth more than 33, ISRG was worth more than 89. Heavy equipment was going to get slammed, but Hope and Infrastructure was on the way. If you use adhesive in your product, volumes may be off, but the world wasn't going to end....and while robotic surgeries may not be selling units for a bit, the ones in play still needed consumables, and people dying to get them cause for constant demand.

Otherwise it's about getting comfortable with companies you like. For me, two are MMM and CME. I don't own either one right now, but when I have money, I like to see if they're on sale. If they're on sale I can buy them without any further worry.

When is the market on sale? Well, today I can see 282 stocks at a 52 week high and 28 at a 52 week low. I'd say we're not on sale right now overall, so I want to be careful about what stocks I pick. As I look through the bargain bin, I see EBay is on sale right now. TripAdvisor is on a big sale. VOD is on sale. None are really what I personally am looking for, but there's got to be a reason why they are on sale. Finding out that reason and seeing if it's worth it can be a trading style.

Remember when BP had their spill and the fines would be up to $20B so wall street eliminated half of the company's value....that was a sale worth buying into. How about the CME scandal....once the politicians signalled they didn't want a breakup, the sale was worth buying. PBR and their liquidity crisis....will Brazil really let a company bringing it over $100B in revenue each year fall apart for being $5B short? No. Crisis aside, for awhile there was a fun quick trade with contract manufacturers who would get just crushed 5% everytime there was bad macroeconomic news. Go in, buy it, sell literally the same week for a 5% trade. Nothing huge, but that's free money for a company stock that was no worse off than it was the day before.

So I concentrate a lot on buying when there's a discount that doesn't match reality. That also tells me when to sell. I probably have 5 different main themes of things I look for. I like to look back and see which ones are the best and for sure value investing is there. Just buy solid companies when they aren't at the 52 week high and you'll have an opportunity to make money. A stopped clock is right twice a day. That's usually good enough for us. Happy hunting.
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Old 11-15-2016, 06:48 AM
 
100 posts, read 65,282 times
Reputation: 377
[quote=TuborgP;46188178]I tried to start a thread on this in the retirement forum but it got moved. So let me just try to make a point. All previous thoughts about retirement planning that involve government support may soon prove to be wrong. If you or anyone you know is expecting government support for nursing home care etc be advised:
What Trump might prescribe for Medicaid

Quote:
“There are 18 states that won’t extend Medicaid, and if you give them a block grant, they will take that money and run,” he predicted. “Many of the people who will get hurt are children and people in nursing homes.”[/QUOTE



Read the last line as aging Boomers! We better be ready to be more self sufficient as we really become elderly.
Well that advice doesn't just apply to boomers. Everybody needs to be self sufficient. You don't want to have to rely on the government, who is well known for it's ability to handle money, to take care of you.
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Old 11-15-2016, 06:00 PM
 
12,825 posts, read 20,132,535 times
Reputation: 10910
Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
"Most people's health"??? How did you come to that conclusion? I would say most people can work until 65 or 67 unless they are roofers who have to be up on roofs when the temperature is 100 degrees plus, or unless they are in some other trade which features extreme physical demands such as operating a jackhammer or moving other people's household furniture.
Well, to "get through the day" some also need smokes, booze, maybe even some pills. And can't live without lots and lots of comfort food. Wash down with lots of sodas, and diet soda ain't any different in the long game. Couple that with lots of TV when off work ....

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Old 11-17-2016, 06:16 AM
 
Location: RVA
2,164 posts, read 1,265,106 times
Reputation: 4451
Don't even know if the OP still reads this, but the reality in the future may just be that only the privileged, wealthy, very disciplined or lucky will be able to retire as is more commonly seen today. Too many people now assume it is a right of old age and/or the governments responsibility and to make sure that happens. A rep to Stratman for pointing that out. SS is a shallow safety net to depend on.
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:20 PM
 
Location: Planet Woof
3,139 posts, read 3,506,027 times
Reputation: 9889
You'd be surprized how little a person can live on and still be happy and content.
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:48 PM
 
1,054 posts, read 739,043 times
Reputation: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by stellastar2345 View Post
People always tell me (here at least) that you shouldn't count on your inheritance because health expenses may take it all. I think the average American something like 200k - 300k saved for retirement. My parents have multiple millions, and I am told that all of this can go towards healthcare. How does the average American afford to retire if multiple millions could potentially be needed for retirement?
I don't see how (one would need millions due to millions needed for medical care) with Medicare and other insurance coverage.
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:53 PM
 
33,046 posts, read 22,043,990 times
Reputation: 8970
Quote:
Originally Posted by FeelinLow View Post
You'd be surprized how little a person can live on and still be happy and content.

Until their income stream is interrupted.
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Old 11-18-2016, 01:22 AM
 
71,509 posts, read 71,674,131 times
Reputation: 49088
Quote:
Originally Posted by FeelinLow View Post
You'd be surprized how little a person can live on and still be happy and content.
nothing is a problem -until it's a problem . money buys choices in life
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Old 11-18-2016, 05:22 AM
 
29,772 posts, read 34,856,103 times
Reputation: 11682
Quote:
Originally Posted by FeelinLow View Post
You'd be surprized how little a person can live on and still be happy and content.
How little of their own money only? Or how much of their own money supplemented by wealth transfer programs implemented by the various levels of government and charity. This isn't meant about you.
I am not sure that a lot of people realize how much of their life especially retirement is the result of wealth transfer from other people and shared pools of contributions where their bang is greater than their contribution and others get less bang for their contributions. How many will be able to live happy and content on so little in the future may well be determined by legislation enacted in the next couple of years. Hold on to your horses folks and hope your horse is strong and build for the long haul.

Last edited by TuborgP; 11-18-2016 at 05:32 AM..
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Old 11-18-2016, 07:06 AM
 
71,509 posts, read 71,674,131 times
Reputation: 49088
yep , as we have seen with others here they really are not getting by on their own resources . they may have everything from medicaid to section 8 housing assisting them adding dollars to their own income .
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