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Old 12-16-2016, 07:26 AM
 
29,782 posts, read 34,880,403 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perryinva View Post
I agree, its a great fund, and once the bond market is finished getting hammered by the Feds rate rises, then THAT would be a great time to invest in Wellsley. But still for the long term. It is not a place to park cash while deciding. My point was 5-6 months ago equities were on a(nother) tear, and bonds were rightly predicted to drop, so Wellsley made little sense to get in at that specific time. What has Wellington done in the same period?
Wellington has a one month return of 2.22% and a three month return of 0.90% and a YTD of 8.71%.

Combined Wellington and Wellesley gives you the opportunity to have about 50/50 balance in your portfolio. What also can for SOME be important is how and when are you contributing. If it is a workplace setting you are pretty much on cruise control with your fund allocation. If you are investing yourself you can based on how you perceive market conditions focus contribution more on one or the other. As some have noted of late there was a time for new money to go into Wellesley and than Wellington. Now might be a time for it to go into cash reserves for deployment at a later time. If you want you can add a bond and market index fund really focused contributions. Vanguard is a pure after tax fund family for us with a new specific time horizon in mind. As that draws near safety will become more important.
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Old 12-16-2016, 09:30 AM
 
Location: Haiku
4,120 posts, read 2,584,370 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perryinva View Post
I agree, its a great fund, and once the bond market is finished getting hammered by the Feds rate rises.....
The Fed rate increases have nothing to do with rising bond interest rates. The Fed only raises the Federal Funds Rate, which is interest for overnight loans. The interest rate for bonds is determined by the credit markets. Bond rates started climbing back in July. The FFR was only raised this past week.
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Old 12-16-2016, 03:00 PM
 
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wellesley did exceptionally well for years because 1/2 the bond portfolio was in long term treasury bonds . a 35 year bull market saw amazing gains on them .

that party ended 3 months ago as they got crushed since then . wellesly has cut those long term treasury bonds to about 1/3 the portfolio now .

the bond portion has still been weighing heavy on the equity portion .
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Old 12-16-2016, 07:40 PM
 
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I think Wellsley income is one of the best balanced funds around. If you are judging funds on 5 months of performance, you will often be disappointed. These type of funds are long term income funds, not something to be traded like a stock. Investors performance often lags behind the fund performance due to moving into and out of funds looking for short term gains. Good luck to you on your investments.
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Old 12-16-2016, 10:27 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Wellington has a one month return of 2.22% and a three month return of 0.90% and a YTD of 8.71%.

Combined Wellington and Wellesley gives you the opportunity to have about 50/50 balance in your portfolio. What also can for SOME be important is how and when are you contributing. If it is a workplace setting you are pretty much on cruise control with your fund allocation. If you are investing yourself you can based on how you perceive market conditions focus contribution more on one or the other. As some have noted of late there was a time for new money to go into Wellesley and than Wellington. Now might be a time for it to go into cash reserves for deployment at a later time. If you want you can add a bond and market index fund really focused contributions. Vanguard is a pure after tax fund family for us with a new specific time horizon in mind. As that draws near safety will become more important.
Unfortunately, Wellington has been closed for some time now, unless one has an acct at Vanguard. I really wanted Wellington, but got Wellesley when I found out Wellington was closed. I wanted less bond exposure because rates would be rising. But Wellesley is a good fund.
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Old 12-17-2016, 02:06 AM
 
26,125 posts, read 28,521,132 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bpollen View Post
Unfortunately, Wellington has been closed for some time now, unless one has an acct at Vanguard. I really wanted Wellington, but got Wellesley when I found out Wellington was closed. I wanted less bond exposure because rates would be rising. But Wellesley is a good fund.
Wellington is NOT completely closed. You can buy the fund if you open an account directly with Vanguard.
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Old 12-17-2016, 02:34 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanWinkle666 View Post
I think Wellsley income is one of the best balanced funds around. If you are judging funds on 5 months of performance, you will often be disappointed. These type of funds are long term income funds, not something to be traded like a stock. Investors performance often lags behind the fund performance due to moving into and out of funds looking for short term gains. Good luck to you on your investments.
it isn't judging it on 5 months performance . it is judging it on what may be an end the last 3 months to a 35 year old trend of falling interest rates .

that can have a huge weight attached to a balanced fund going forward. no matter how much rates rise on the new bonds the fund buys you will always be well behind the curve if rates trend up to historical norms and you already own it .

in times of rising rates separate equity and bond funds may be a better choice since you can control the types of bond funds you are in while the balanced fund may be restricted from certain types that do better when rates rise .

time will tell if this is the start of a new trend back up or only a bump in the road on the way lower . but i think you need to stay dynamic and play the cards as they are dealt .
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Old 12-17-2016, 04:07 AM
 
Location: New England
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When you look at bond prices going back 200 years in the USA, we've gone through decade long periods of flat prices. It took 35 years to work off the 18% bond bubble in rates. Everyone expects them to rebound, the majority will be wrong again.
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Old 12-17-2016, 04:37 AM
 
29,782 posts, read 34,880,403 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nativenewenglander View Post
When you look at bond prices going back 200 years in the USA, we've gone through decade long periods of flat prices. It took 35 years to work off the 18% bond bubble in rates. Everyone expects them to rebound, the majority will be wrong again.
I think people have different definitions of what level a rebound is to or how high this current uptick will reach. Much of the world is still dealing with either negative or much lower rates.
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Old 12-17-2016, 04:53 AM
 
71,657 posts, read 71,801,099 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nativenewenglander View Post
When you look at bond prices going back 200 years in the USA, we've gone through decade long periods of flat prices. It took 35 years to work off the 18% bond bubble in rates. Everyone expects them to rebound, the majority will be wrong again.
it has been a pretty straight drop the last 35 years . we had a few bumps in the road a few times which was more a hic cup but down is down .

the trend back up can take a long time too and that can be slow torture for the wrong kinds of bonds . for the last 35 years all you had to do was buy and hold most any bonds and you were fine . the longer the maturity the better they did . now we are seeing the reverse as longer term bonds have lost about 15% in just the past 3 months .

whether some flight to safety will drop rates again remains to be seen but eventually they have to creep back up towards the historical norms which is in the 6% range .


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