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Old 01-11-2017, 02:43 PM
2,454 posts, read 2,092,532 times
Reputation: 5749


Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Correct, because $17/hour in Cincinnati buys you a McMansion.
$17 an hour will not buy anyone a McMansion anywhere in the USA.
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Old 01-11-2017, 03:04 PM
2,636 posts, read 1,956,777 times
Reputation: 4607
It already happened 8 years ago. The stock market crashed, most never trusted it ever again, and SS got no COLA. Except for those with big pension money or a trust fund of some sort, they're doing the dollar stores for groceries. But that's old news.
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Old 01-11-2017, 03:06 PM
29,960 posts, read 35,029,039 times
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Originally Posted by TwinbrookNine View Post
It already happened 8 years ago. The stock market crashed, most never trusted it ever again, and SS got no COLA. Except for those with big pension money or a trust fund of some sort, they're doing the dollar stores for groceries. But that's old news.
Or experience in the stock market and a trust that it would bounce back and it did and boy did it ever bounce back.
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Old 01-11-2017, 03:12 PM
29,960 posts, read 35,029,039 times
Reputation: 11855
Originally Posted by OhBeeHave View Post
Depends on where the teacher is employed. We have plenty of older teachers pulling in over 6 figures. When a local teacher marries a local LEO, they are well over $200K and have phenomenal benefits as well as awesome retirement funds.
Yes it does happen. This is the salary scale for Montgomery County Maryland Public schools. at 25 years teachers with the required certification are over 100K. After 18 years a teachers salary is just over 99k per year. Not counting any additional responsibilities compensation

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Old 01-11-2017, 03:13 PM
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 19,064,394 times
Reputation: 15650
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
I think most of the long-time regular posters in this Retirement Forum realize that posters here are NOT representative of a cross section of the United States. I would speculate that people in lower socio-economic groups are simply less likely to participate in public internet discussion boards. To enjoy this, a certain level of literacy is required, for one thing.

That's why contributions like yours are important; they help us get a broader picture of the United States as a whole. I would say that New York City and rural Tennessee are simply different worlds, with most of the U.S. falling somewhere in between. That may be an over-simplification, but that's how I see it.
I agree with the bolded part, but feel that the blue text above is an unfair assessment/profile of "lower socio economic groups." There are some posters on here who, even if working, make very little income in comparison to the standard financially secure retiree. Yet in many cases they show more "intelligence" (and definitely a higher literacy level) than others who brag about their superior status.

As an aside:
Yes, getting a broader picture is important, but I do wonder how someone on the clock is taking so much time during (what I assume is) a standard workweek to make lengthy posts all through the day (never could have done that in my job!). But that is neither here nor there.

My point is that I agree with you on one observation, definitely not on the other.
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Old 01-11-2017, 03:20 PM
Location: Ohio
20,097 posts, read 14,337,142 times
Reputation: 16277
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
Please explain what a 4th level economy is. Over the years you keep referring to things like 2nd level economy, 3rd level economy, etc.

Googling these terms brings me right back to your posts here on C-D.

Maybe you should write a textbook.
Those were from the Econ professors I had about 10 years ago. Well, I guess closer to 15 years ago, when I was pursuing my 2nd and 3rd undergraduate degrees.

Every economy starts as a 0 Level Agrarian Economy -- subsistence level farming. Over time, the economy advances --largely due to technology -- to a point where there is a surplus of goods that can be exported for a positive cash flow, and that cash is then re-invested into the 1st Level Economy, assuming there are resources -- metals, minerals, timber etc -- that can be exploited.

That's the vast majority of sub-Saharan African States and Central Asia.

Eventually, through technology you develop a surplus of natural resources, so that instead of exporting iron or aluminum ingots, you're using that iron and aluminum to manufacture cars, heavy equipment, machinery, durable household goods and the like, and then eventually consumer goods.

That's your 2nd Level Economy and that is where the US was 100 years ago; where China entered in Year 2000 or so; and where India is approaching.

Ultimately, again largely to due to technological advances, you enter the 3rd Level Economy which is almost entirely consumer goods that further enhance Standard of Living and Life-Style. This is "Clean Manufacturing", meaning there are no petro-chemicals, solvents, fluids or other oil-based products used in the manufacturing process (good for the environment).

And then, due to technology you enter the 4th Level Economy, which is almost entirely the production of technology and the provision of high level services.

From there, in theory, you'd advance to the 5th Level Economy, which is Research & Development. The US should have started in the mid-1990s, but failed to do so for a number of reasons, mostly related to the fact that the education system produces MBAs instead of engineers, mathematicians and scientists, and because government policies have not been conducive to transfer Capital (investment dollars) to Research & Development.

The end result is that instead of picking up two good paying R&D jobs for every three manufacturing jobs lost, you're not doing that. You're just losing the manufacturing jobs without gaining any jobs.

So, what should be happening during the 4th Level Economy?

No one really knows, because we're living it day-to-day. There is no history for it. There is plenty of history of developing 2nd Level Economies that can be studied. We know, for example, that during the 2nd Level Economic expansion, wages double generally about every 10 years.

That's not true for 3rd and 4th Level Economies.

These wages in developing- and emerging-States like India where the minimum wage is $0.28/hour or Sierra Leone where the minimum wage $0.03/hour are not "slave wages," but they do make it difficult for the US to compete globally.

Those wages are appropriate for the level of economic development in those States. When the US was undergoing expansion at the turn of the 20th Century, wages of $0.30/day to $0.45/day were common, especially for agricultural workers, and the majority of Americans worked in agriculture at that time.

India will be the next State to begin 2nd Level expansion, sometime in the next few years, leading to more job losses in manufacturing in the US, followed by Central Asia a couple of decades later, and then sub-Saharan Africa a few decades after that.

Knowing that, it would behoove the (US) government to formulate some policies to address that.

If you believe that retirement should be based on a combination of employer-based plans, personal savings and investments and Social Security, then government has obviously failed.

Given the changing nature of employment (lack of employer-sponsored pension plans and employees constantly changing jobs) and the fact that the US will be hard-pressed to be globally competitive in the coming decades (manufacturing jobs are not coming back), government should foster --- not create and administrate, but foster through policies some kind of universal pension plan for all employees.

If you don't believe in the "three-legged stool" (employer pension, savings/investments and Social Security), then government has still failed, since it has not created polices for enhanced savings/investments and Social Security. Worse than that, your economy is largely consumption-driven, so savings negatively impacts economic growth.

The thing about these emerging- and developing-States is that they will put greater and greater pressure on resources, goods and services, creating Demand-pull Inflation and driving prices up, making it difficult, if not down-right impossible for Americans to maintain the Standard of Living and Life-Style to which they've become accustomed.

To that end, it is unlikely that government policies will be able to overcome the Standard of Living deficit which will manifest itself in the coming decades.
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Old 01-11-2017, 04:32 PM
Location: SoCal
13,713 posts, read 6,516,267 times
Reputation: 10240
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
No idea where you are, $57k isn't a ton of money, but it's middle to slightly upper middle class here.

I don't know any private sector employees with a pension now. Not a single one. The people who do were probably hired years, perhaps decades, ago, and are under legacy systems that have long since been scaled back or phased out.

A $30k-$40k annual income at a 3%-4% safe draw down rate would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $750k-$1m saved up.

Is she "wealthy?" No, but it is a solid middle class living.

Definitely. It's not apples to apples.
From your point of view of where you are. But it's not a lot of money from LA. If she's not poor she would have spent $20 a month for dental insurance. That's almost a few cups of coffee at Starbucks.
But everything is relative, even poor. We have poor and then dirt poor.
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Old 01-11-2017, 07:17 PM
3,374 posts, read 3,083,192 times
Reputation: 4928
Originally Posted by newtovenice View Post
So she retired almost 25 years ago? Not even close to being representative of today.

Secretaries make at MOST $15/hour today. Explain how a CURRENTLY EMPLOYED SECRETARY MAKING $15/hour can buy a house, amass $125K in savings and secure a pension of $30K to $40K, used in the other example.

Explain how your wife's ex MIL who stopped working 25 years ago managed to save "a couple hundred K" in a pre-401K era.

This should be the fantasy retirement board. No one has been able to show mathematically how low wage jobs miraculously turn into hundreds of thousands of dollars at retirement. As my math teachers used to say, "Please show your work."

Secretaries at my firm make $60-100K. The receptionist and very low level workers might make $15/hr.
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Old 01-11-2017, 09:05 PM
Location: too far from the sea
20,056 posts, read 19,040,242 times
Reputation: 34101
Why is no one talking about the future crisis of poor retirees? That was the topic. Maybe we're all talked out? If we still want to talk, the bickering and snide remarks cannot continue.
my posts as moderator will be in red. Moderator: Health&Wellness~Genealogy. The Rules--read here>>> TOS. If someone attacks you, do not reply. Hit REPORT.
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Old 01-12-2017, 08:04 AM
29,960 posts, read 35,029,039 times
Reputation: 11855
Let me throw out a thought about the thread topic and the current direction of the discussion. Just how much is there to be said about the future retirement of someone without resources? Nada Ning or not gonna happen. Perhaps another way of approaching the topic is the future life consequences for of the elderly poor. As titled we are perhaps hung up on the fact that we are discussing people unable to retire in the tradition concept.
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