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Old 02-13-2017, 09:24 AM
 
1,040 posts, read 484,865 times
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hey guys
have you noticed that in general the FIRECALC success ratio when you plug in your numbers is much more optimistic than Cfiresim?
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Old 02-13-2017, 09:39 AM
 
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Are you using the same monetary assumptions for both calculators?
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Old 02-13-2017, 09:44 AM
 
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yes
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Old 02-13-2017, 10:18 AM
 
Location: Haiku
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It does not surprise me. There are lots of assumptions that go into RIP tools. None of them do a good job with bonds, for instance. And they assume investors are perfect investing machines and never jump in/out of investments. You have to take their results with a big grain of salt.
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Old 02-13-2017, 10:24 AM
 
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fidelity uses monte carlo simulations to simulate worst time frames .

you have to see what they are using for bonds too . do you know that bill bengans safe max did better than 4% because he used short term gov't bonds in the data . the trinirty did worse than 4% and they used longer term corporates .

firecalc requires a lot more inflation planning . the numbers in fidelity take the rate of inflation for health care and long term care and accelerate them at almost 2x the inflation rate .

there are many other differences too . if you are 90-100% in either you have things as good as it gets based on what we know up to today .

i don't use c-fire so i don't know what they do internally
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Old 02-13-2017, 11:04 AM
 
Location: Idaho
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Here is an interview of the creator of cfiresim. The program is an improved reverse-engineered version of FireCal since its development was stopped in 2007.

Get to Know Bo - Creator of cFIREsim - Bucking the Trend


Quote:
What advantages does cFIREsim have over FIRECalc?

As of this interview, there are a few things.

cFIREsim is in active development with the help of its users.

cFIREsim provides more flexibility for additional Savings/Spending inputs (that can be both one-time or recurring).

Rather than the traditional “constant-dollar %” or the “% of portfolio” withdrawal methods, cFIREsim provides the ability to model a few different variable-spending models.

cFIREsim allows for simulating a retirement from a single start year, rather than ALL of the data points. This was a big request from folks looking to simulate the WORST years in history.
cFIREsim’s inputs are all on one page. Some people reading this might think this is a silly thing to mention, but there have been a lot of complaints in the past about FireCalc’s mutli-tab interface
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Old 02-13-2017, 11:48 AM
 
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Thanks guys...appreciate it!!
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Old 02-13-2017, 01:21 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FREE866 View Post
hey guys
have you noticed that in general the FIRECALC success ratio when you plug in your numbers is much more optimistic than Cfiresim?
I just ran thru the forum postings at cFiresim and cannot find the reference but...

As I recall some time back there was a very serious question about how Firecalc calculated bond values, especially with regard to rebalancing a portfolio

cFiresim supposedly uses a much more realistic way of calculating bond values and that accounts for the lousier portfolio performance. Firecalc is allegedly too hopeful...?

That's what I recall from a few yrs back but like I said I cannot find the actual statements thereto

Any of this sound even vaguely familiar or ring any bells with anyone else?
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Old 02-13-2017, 01:52 PM
 
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Thanks for sharing this--I was not familiar with the cFiresim tool. For what it is worth, I ran my number through cFiresim, and I get pretty comparable figures relative to firecalc, which to me is reassuring that the results are more or less replicated.
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Old 02-13-2017, 02:50 PM
 
Location: On the road
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I've always had firecalc and cfiresim numbers pretty similar as well, at least close enough where it isn't worth fretting about which is the right answer.

I like cfiresim better because it has a lot more flexibility with modeling withdrawal methods.
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