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Old 08-10-2017, 11:59 AM
 
Location: SoCal
13,232 posts, read 6,335,450 times
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Pros have not beaten us. I consider hedge fund people as pros. They have not been beating us.
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Old 08-10-2017, 12:03 PM
 
71,603 posts, read 71,751,865 times
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many popular hedge fund managers have been closing down funds and giving back investor money
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Old 08-10-2017, 12:27 PM
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
3,182 posts, read 1,961,125 times
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Shiller and his followers have been too bearish for a long, long time. He puts way too much faith in the CAPE, in my opinion. It's just a number, and appears to be a flawed number at that. Bad bear markets are typically the result of recession and/or credit problems. CAPE does not tell us if either of those problems are brewing.


One of the worst markets in the past century was '73-'74, and CAPE was not terribly high then. In contrast, the market has been fine in many periods when the CAPE was higher than in 1973.
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Old 08-10-2017, 12:37 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
3,617 posts, read 1,630,406 times
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Just invest in good companies.

I mean...if you look at good companies, the ones that survive the recession tend to come out way ahead. The way to avoid ANY pain is to only invest money you won't need. At the end of the day the only days that matter are the day you buy and the day you sell, and hopefully you're buying things that pay you while you wait (aka dividends). If dividends are a part of your earnings you need to live on, then maybe go more cautious....but what to replace it with?

The trick is to not have to sell during a recession. The better trick is being able to buy more. Remember, the horrid stock crash of 1929...at the high right before it touched 381.17. And I'll be the first to say it's not an apples to apples comparison, but we've come a long way since then.

We might lose some on a correction here, and it might be big, but it will be back. The only way it's going down is if N. Korea dots the horizon with mushroom clouds....and then it wouldn't matter anyway.
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Old 08-10-2017, 12:58 PM
 
564 posts, read 296,544 times
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I like lots of individual companies but usually buy indexes.
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Old 08-10-2017, 01:27 PM
 
2,678 posts, read 1,543,054 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
Just invest in good companies.

I mean...if you look at good companies, the ones that survive the recession tend to come out way ahead.
But if you know this, so do millions of other investors, and they've acted on it already, driving the price of those good companies up to reflect the survival advantage. So their action reduces your upside and increases your downside. You can't win with any targeted strategy like this unless you have either superior market knowlege (very superior, since you're competing with pro investors) or you have insider information. Either can be very useful!
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Old 08-10-2017, 01:54 PM
 
9,585 posts, read 8,888,264 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbear99 View Post
But if you know this, so do millions of other investors, and they've acted on it already, driving the price of those good companies up to reflect the survival advantage. So their action reduces your upside and increases your downside. You can't win with any targeted strategy like this unless you have either superior market knowlege (very superior, since you're competing with pro investors) or you have insider information. Either can be very useful!
50-60 percent in low expense mutual funds that follow the S&P 500 or mid cap if you feel frisky. 30 percent in 10 year treasury bonds or inflation protected. ... about 10 percent in cash. You won't make a killing but in the long run you will do fine. Picking the "right" companies is akin to going to the track.
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Old 08-10-2017, 02:37 PM
 
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
10,522 posts, read 8,765,146 times
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Yes, stocks are over-priced. That doesn't necessarily lead to a panic.
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Old 08-10-2017, 02:45 PM
 
2,443 posts, read 2,072,308 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Burkmere View Post
You don't have to personalize it. I was just posting an article. I wasn't even espousing it. I thought it was interesting though. Perhaps you should have a little more tact when you respond to people. And I'm getting "quick reputation" responses, so there are others who agree with me.
I repped you too
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Old 08-10-2017, 03:00 PM
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
3,182 posts, read 1,961,125 times
Reputation: 3321
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbear99 View Post
But if you know this, so do millions of other investors, and they've acted on it already, driving the price of those good companies up to reflect the survival advantage. So their action reduces your upside and increases your downside. You can't win with any targeted strategy like this unless you have either superior market knowlege (very superior, since you're competing with pro investors) or you have insider information. Either can be very useful!

You can use superior intestinal fortitude. Lots of people will just sell in fear when things are dropping. Others will have no choice but to sell if they are leveraged. Prices are not always set by rational thinkers.
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