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Old 08-11-2017, 10:36 AM
 
7,928 posts, read 5,042,332 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
I think its a generic YOU.
This is why I prefer the usage, "one". As in, "one ought to refrain from driving or flying, if one happens to be so incorrigibly risk-averse." This also neatly avoids gender-specificity.

The obligatory Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_(pronoun)
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Old 08-11-2017, 10:42 AM
 
Location: SoCal
13,235 posts, read 6,335,450 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Burkmere View Post
That's for sure! And I indicated on his Twitter feed that he'll be correct once of these decades!
Has he ever been right?
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Old 08-11-2017, 11:26 AM
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
3,182 posts, read 1,961,125 times
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You'd be better off watching what Buffett is doing/saying. Do you remember that in 1999 he wrote an article, published in Fortune Magazine, predicting a very long period of sub-par returns ahead? Then in 2008/2009 he was making all kinds of investments, not worrying about when or where the bottom in the market was going to be. He's been correct way more than he's been wrong... a lot better record than these yahoos that are perennially bearish.
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Old 08-11-2017, 11:34 AM
 
9,585 posts, read 8,889,712 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hikernut View Post
You'd be better off watching what Buffett is doing/saying. Do you remember that in 1999 he wrote an article, published in Fortune Magazine, predicting a very long period of sub-par returns ahead? Then in 2008/2009 he was making all kinds of investments, not worrying about when or where the bottom in the market was going to be. He's been correct way more than he's been wrong... a lot better record than these yahoos that are perennially bearish.
Online savings accounts are offering 1.5 percent now and FDIC insured. Makes things interesting for anyone who thinks this will become a bear market.
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Old 08-11-2017, 02:10 PM
 
29,782 posts, read 34,876,173 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hikernut View Post
Shiller and his followers have been too bearish for a long, long time. He puts way too much faith in the CAPE, in my opinion. It's just a number, and appears to be a flawed number at that. Bad bear markets are typically the result of recession and/or credit problems. CAPE does not tell us if either of those problems are brewing.


One of the worst markets in the past century was '73-'74, and CAPE was not terribly high then. In contrast, the market has been fine in many periods when the CAPE was higher than in 1973.
I am a good big fan of Shiller and love seeing him on CNBC. He was on recently talking about the CAPE and how high it was.o He was really clear that people should not because of that. He said the market could continue going up. Yes a correction is inevitable and has been. It has been and will continue to be. Shiller also notes that investing has changed and what historically was a high P/E might have changed. Folks need to be more concerned about the market distortion that index funds might be creating.
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Old 08-11-2017, 05:09 PM
 
2,296 posts, read 1,561,711 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
Has he ever been right?
Maybe only for a few days at a time.
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Old 08-11-2017, 06:14 PM
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
3,182 posts, read 1,961,125 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
I am a good big fan of Shiller and love seeing him on CNBC. He was on recently talking about the CAPE and how high it was.o He was really clear that people should not because of that. He said the market could continue going up. Yes a correction is inevitable and has been. It has been and will continue to be. Shiller also notes that investing has changed and what historically was a high P/E might have changed. Folks need to be more concerned about the market distortion that index funds might be creating.

He is entirely fixated on the CAPE and not much else. Looking at a single number can send you down the wrong path. He's been wrong so many times that I really do not pay him much attention. Of course he will always allow that the market COULD continue to go up for a bit, but I just saw him state that the market is in "dangerous territory". That makes his opinion pretty crystal clear.
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Old 08-11-2017, 07:57 PM
 
15,292 posts, read 4,033,310 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hikernut View Post
You'd be better off watching what Buffett is doing/saying. Do you remember that in 1999 he wrote an article, published in Fortune Magazine, predicting a very long period of sub-par returns ahead? Then in 2008/2009 he was making all kinds of investments, not worrying about when or where the bottom in the market was going to be. He's been correct way more than he's been wrong... a lot better record than these yahoos that are perennially bearish.
Just buy his stock and then you don't have to watch and/or read the tea leaves.

As I passed 60 (about 4 years back) I started building up my my position in BRKB. It's sure easier than picking out all those mutual funds.
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Old 08-12-2017, 07:42 AM
 
29,782 posts, read 34,876,173 times
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Robert Shiller Blog: June 2017

Quote:
The CAPE ratio that John Campbell and I devised 30 years ago is at unusual highs. The only time in history going back to 1881 when it has been higher are, A: 1929 and B: 2000. We are at a high level, and its concerning.

Its not definitive but its concerning. People should be cautious now. We have a high market. That doesn't mean I would avoid it altogether.


The above video and quote is from his June 30, 2017 Blog.
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Old 08-12-2017, 08:43 AM
 
2,678 posts, read 1,543,054 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
picking out all those mutual funds.
Picking funds is easy: lowest cost, which means passively managed funds/index funds.

Research going back at least to the 1970s has shown (1) there is no predictive value in current or historic fund performance - the "winners" in any time period may not be winners in subsequent periods (2) On average, actively managed funds underperform the market when fees are included.

Interpreting the above, it means your odds of picking a superior performing fund are random, over the long haul. In shorter time periods, such as a year or two, the situation is a bit more complex, because you can pick high beta or low beta funds. Even then, the problem is knowing when to buy/sell.
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