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Old 08-13-2017, 05:47 PM
 
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I started one month before the 1987 crash.

Pretty much stuck with it up to my changes i wanted to make for retiring . Check your math , the growth model was about 11% cagr ,s&p was about 10%. I never calculated the select model .

Today i use 3 of their models so each time frame i need the money to eat with is optimized
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Old 08-13-2017, 08:38 PM
 
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Originally Posted by bigbear99 View Post
And did you invest at that point? And stick with "the growth model" since then? Did you start before or after the 1987 crash? (I was at a financial conference that day. It was interesting to watch my fellow attendees) Makes a difference in returns.

Are you sure of your math? I calculate a CAGR of about 16% annually. That seems really high for a total market fund, or any fund for that matter. Yes, it's easy to get such a rate of return for scattered years, but not consistently.
I remember the 87 crash and how it became a memory to learn from. The other thing I learned is a point you are also making is that the hot fund can become the big did. Witness Magellan especially after Peter Lynch left and Janus The Dot Com wonder funds
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Old 08-14-2017, 02:51 AM
 
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Originally Posted by bigbear99 View Post
And did you invest at that point? And stick with "the growth model" since then? Did you start before or after the 1987 crash? (I was at a financial conference that day. It was interesting to watch my fellow attendees) Makes a difference in returns.

Are you sure of your math? I calculate a CAGR of about 16% annually. That seems really high for a total market fund, or any fund for that matter. Yes, it's easy to get such a rate of return for scattered years, but not consistently.
$100K to $2.4 million in 30 years is a CAGR of 11.1749% according to Excel, which usually gets these things right.
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Old 08-14-2017, 03:00 AM
 
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yep . that is the correct math .

Last edited by mathjak107; 08-14-2017 at 03:28 AM..
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Old 08-14-2017, 06:35 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Burkmere View Post
You don't have to personalize it. I was just posting an article. I wasn't even espousing it. I thought it was interesting though. Perhaps you should have a little more tact when you respond to people. And I'm getting "quick reputation" responses, so there are others who agree with me.
Yes...It is all about the ”quick reputation" responses...
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Old 08-14-2017, 06:43 AM
 
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of course , they make any statement true ha ha ha
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Old 08-14-2017, 07:12 AM
 
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Originally Posted by james777 View Post
Exxon has done absolutely nothing in the past ten years. For your sake, I hope its next ten years are a lot better. I would put that money into actively managed mutual funds instead.
remember all the out cry about how the oil companies were price fixing .

ha ha ha if that was true they have to be the worst price fixers in history. including dividends xom returned 1.78% a year the last 10 years . the s&p 500 returned 7.59%.

the last 15 years was a bit closer 8.92% for the s&p 500 vs 7.50% for xom
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Old 08-14-2017, 07:16 AM
 
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Perhaps the wrong forum but do any of you Bogleheads or semi Bogleheads wonder if the increased market percentage of index funds is compromising the efficient market theory?
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Old 08-14-2017, 07:17 AM
 
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i think eventually the money flowing in to what already went up the most over time via indexing will leave the value every where else .

almost 17% of every dollar that goes in to an s&p fund goes in to just 10 stocks . almost 35% is in just 25 stocks .
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Old 08-14-2017, 07:51 AM
 
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Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Perhaps the wrong forum but do any of you Bogleheads or semi Bogleheads wonder if the increased market percentage of index funds is compromising the efficient market theory?
I'm not a Boglehead (I'm maybe what you'd call a Fama-head), but theory would say that the hunt for market anomalies (like the January effect) will continue, driving the market to equilibrium. Observation suggests that private equity is where it's at, and will continue to be. After all, if you have a market-beating strategy, why tell anyone? Just invest on your own and reap the rewards yourself. (Do you ever see Gene Fama's name in the news?)

Keep in mind, too, that efficient markets refers to publicly available information. HF traders, to use one example, use non-public information to make money.

Mathjak, I had inadvertently missed a decade in my calculations. Yours were correct. Amazing what 10 more years can do!
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