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Old 09-01-2017, 02:06 PM
 
Location: SoCal
13,412 posts, read 6,411,220 times
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I've got 2 years under my belt so far.
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Old 09-01-2017, 02:35 PM
 
72,014 posts, read 72,043,164 times
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im in into my 3rd year
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Old 09-01-2017, 03:54 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
I guess we are unlikely to hear from Pfau or the other talking heads who thought 4%was going to be too high.
guess again . kitce's interview i posted above has him thinking 4% is still low for a 30 year retirement even at today's valuations .

if it was not for these high valuations draws could be much higher .

his work correlating p/e10 ratio's to 30 year retirement draws had a correlation of a mind blowing .74 . if researchers get a 2 as a correlation in a study it is considered still accurate enough to use but .74 is astonishingly accurate . so where valuations are when you start are directly related to draw rate and these valuations are high but no problem for 4% .

so as he says , every 20 or 30 years we make it a habit of doing something just horrible to the economy and it has been that way since the 1900's . 4% stood up just fine . so basically every retiree group has had bad crap happen .

if you haven't heard the interview there is a lot of info and stats in it . i found it very very good . i posted it in a thread above .
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Old 09-01-2017, 04:33 PM
 
Location: Middle of the ocean
31,804 posts, read 20,083,739 times
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I have been "following" this thread, and I gotta say..... I'm glad I have a financial guy.
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Old 09-01-2017, 05:22 PM
 
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The question though is how knowledable and up to date is he ? Most suck in the 2nd half of the game. Unless you yourself have a decent education it is hard to judge what they know
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Old 09-01-2017, 05:28 PM
 
Location: Florida
4,385 posts, read 3,726,321 times
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Originally Posted by Mikala43 View Post
I have been "following" this thread, and I gotta say..... I'm glad I have a financial guy.
Does he follow this? Might ask him how he stays current on education.
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Old 09-01-2017, 05:30 PM
 
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My benchmark is if they never heard of michael kitces or blanchette then move on .
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Old 09-01-2017, 05:33 PM
 
Location: Middle of the ocean
31,804 posts, read 20,083,739 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
The question though is how knowledable and up to date is he ? Most suck in the 2nd half of the game. Unless you yourself have a decent education it is hard to judge what they know
So far I really like him. He has answered all my questions correctly, and ask ME the right questions.

I took a two day seminar on retirement, and was told 3 incorrect things.

I learn as much as I can, and I guess I learned enough to move a large 401(k) out of Merrill Lynch because I did not feel they were doing what was in my best interest.

But that's why I still read here and there...
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Old 09-01-2017, 05:35 PM
 
72,014 posts, read 72,043,164 times
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If you have not listened to the interview with michael l posted ,it is worth a listen . It is a wealth of info and dispels so much in mis-information others spew.
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Old 09-01-2017, 06:28 PM
 
Location: Middle of the ocean
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I will, thank you for all the info you provide.
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