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Old 02-24-2018, 01:18 AM
 
Location: Northern California
107 posts, read 57,085 times
Reputation: 222

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Save $30K + add 8% to the pot yearly for inflation and you are about 87% covered.
A 13% chance of being one of the unlucky ones

Save 100K adding 8% to the pot for inflation, you are 96% covered.
A 4% chance of being one of the unlucky ones

Seems...to Save 50K adding 8% to the pot for inflation, you are about 90% covered
A 10% chance of being one of the unlucky ones

Saving up more than 100K+ adding 8% to the pot for inflation, not sure how many more hundreds of thousands one should save to reduce the risk by just a percentage point or two.... bringing it to almost 100% coverage.


For me, designating 75K intended for Skilled Nursing is very reasonable + adding 8% per yr to the pot for inflation.
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Old 02-24-2018, 01:18 AM
 
Location: USA
6,223 posts, read 5,356,171 times
Reputation: 10636
It always seemed to me that this issue is bigger for those in the middle class on up who have to shell out the dough. The poor are basically completely subsidized.
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Old 02-24-2018, 01:24 AM
 
Location: Northern California
107 posts, read 57,085 times
Reputation: 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by s1alker View Post
It always seemed to me that this issue is bigger for those in the middle class on up who have to shell out the dough. The poor are basically completely subsidized.
So true.
The poor tend to die younger so that's a thought
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Old 02-24-2018, 03:06 AM
 
71,507 posts, read 71,674,131 times
Reputation: 49084
Quote:
Originally Posted by BushyEyeBrows View Post
To save more than 100K (adding 2k a yr = 8% inflation) seems extreme

Summing it up-
https://pocketsense.com/the-average-...-12386771.html
43% of people will end up in Skilled Nursing
78% of Nursing Home stays are 3 months or less.
Average cost for a nursing home in Calif is $250 per day
At slightly higher cost...$275 per day,=about 25K for 3 months aka the average length of stay
-------------------------------------
25K = 78% coverage of 3 months stay
100K= 95% coverage for average length of stay (60 months or less)

This is because out of a hundred people, 43 will go into Skilled Nursing.
Out of 43 people, 10 will stay longer than 3 months.
For those remaining 10 out of a 100 people, the average length of stay is 2.5 years.
So 6 people remaiing out of 100 will stay for up to 2.5 years.
The other 4 people out of 100 people will stay longer than 2.5 years.

What is the likelihood you'll be that unlucky 4 people out of 100 people? it is 4%.


Delay SS to plan to increase the check by $166 more per mo along w/ your saved 100K and you'll be doing WONDERFUL
You'll be covered for 95% of the skilled nursing scenarios


To save more than 100K on the chance you could be that unlucky 4%...feels excessive. JMHO



And if you are of Medicare age, then the above will be even better since Medicare will cover some of the costs.


.
as the insurers found out those statistics were way off base .

for one thing they were based on a generation ago when families tended to do their own care. of course many families were blown apart when one sibling stepped up to the plate and the others stepped back .

the families were devastated financially and socially usually too as one gave up a career .

so that is rarely done today .

there were loads like my father who needed snf care but it was far to costly so there are loads of healthcare workers who take people like my dad in their home and care for them 24/7 .

the people my dad was with had one other like him as well . thee are likely as many cared for this way as in a snf only they can't be counted ..

you had lots of people getting care this way who were off the grid and not counted in snf figures .

many also were using care for far more than 2.50 years . my dad was 5 years and the other person was still going strong .

people who have insurance tend to use the insurance as well as 77% of us will need some form of in home care .

insurers went by those statistics and got crushed
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Old 02-24-2018, 03:55 AM
 
591 posts, read 247,964 times
Reputation: 1349
Quote:
Originally Posted by TNSLPPTSO13 View Post
When one reads about how much it costs to end up in a nursing home($50-$60k/year unless it's a really
bad one that looks like something out of a horror movie)...it must be obvious that there is no way most of us will be able to save enough to cover those kind of costs.
How much can one possibly save?.. .Is it really realistic that we would have saved $500K or even $300K to be able to stay in a nursing home for 5-10 years? and unfortunately you don't die.... Especially if you have no family to help you at that point in your life ... And then when the money runs out they will jump on any leftover assets you may still own and dry those up...what happens next??? Why even try??
Long term insurance seems very expensive,and probably not enough for a long term stay
Early death,whether natural or on purpose seems more and more like the best retirement plan.
I understand what you are saying, but I think the key is to try to live as positive and healthy of a life as possible, so you can stay out of these places and take care of yourself as long as possible. I understand that can be hard.

I feel fortunate that my father instilled in me as a child the benefits of saving and not squandering money on nonsense. It has served me well along with having a good job.

As far as going into a nursing home, I will avoid doing so at all costs. I believe most of them are staffed by low class uncaring people who many of them are prone to abusing patients and many try to steal from patients.

I'm not overly concerned, most of the men in my family never reached 80, and I'm 20 years away from that.

I also stay away from all these planners who push long term insurance and other pains who think they know what is best for me.
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Old 02-24-2018, 05:59 AM
 
Location: USA
6,223 posts, read 5,356,171 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BushyEyeBrows View Post
So true.
The poor tend to die younger so that's a thought
Yes I grew up in a small rust belt town. Life was hard there. Long hours spent doing hard dangerous manual labor for for low wages. Poor eating habits, smoking and drinking and drug use was very common. Not many lived past 70 if they were lucky to reach that.
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Old 02-24-2018, 06:53 AM
mlb
 
Location: North Monterey County
3,178 posts, read 2,853,807 times
Reputation: 4876
Quote:
Originally Posted by BC1960 View Post
The average nursing home stay is about 2 years.

That data point is changing.

My mother, who passed away at 94 in a nursing home spent 8 years from admission to the ALC to her last day here on earth in hospice/nursing home care.

We're living longer and "better".....and life has been extended but not necessarily in a good way.

If there is one thing not only my parents taught us - my inlaws too - home ownership will protect you from more than just market forces of renting. It's another pile of money that can fund your last years. That plus retirement savings can go a very long way.

And yes, there will be changes to Medicaid. You know they want you to "work for it"..... as an elder that's pretty much impossible - because the current administration is clueless that a huge majority of Medicaid is spent taking care of people at the end of their lives. End of life care is waaaaaaaay more expensive than any other time of life.

We don't have children so every penny we save - whether in home ownership or our portfolio - will go to our end of life care.

If there is anyhing left over it will be left to remaining family members - hopefully to help them make that transition too.
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Old 02-24-2018, 06:53 AM
 
1,696 posts, read 609,966 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EveryLady View Post
I was surprised at the affordability of the CCRC in this high-cost metro area that's been recommended by friends. Absolutely beautiful, indoor pools etc. No need to transfer from your unit within the community for assisted living. Short-term rehab available (that would probably bill Medicare). A longer-term stay at the SNF or memory care or the new hospice unit are separate. Covered by the level monthly residential fee for the traditional plan A but at that point you'd move from your original unit.

Most who sold the average home *anywhere* in the US could easily afford the buy-in. The monthly LEVEL residential fee *would* exceed the average social security check but folks really need to depend on more than social security.

So it's doable - BUT only after pre-planning, for the waitlist is 10 years for one of the (larger) apartment types. It's a non-profit church affiliated facility around about 50 years.

If I had the money, I'd buy a studio there and use it to pop in for the community and athletic facilities then live here "at home" all the while knowing that the monthly fee was covering future LTC if ever needed. Best of both worlds!

If my daughter really does want the condo once she graduates and starts working (and paying its bills), I may well do that if she stays single. Privacy for her ... a community for me. It's an unconventional way of living, but why not?

Preplanning sometimes leads to future choice and those two with a dash of good fortunate can go a long way.

Me? I've got pages of notes on various LTC options and funding alternatives and only now would I consider consulting an attorney or financial analyst.
About CCRCs and a potential situation you describe with your daughter... is it actually allowed to buy into a CCRC, and then rent your CCRC share to someone else until you are ready to move in there yourself? I looked superficially into CCRCs, but I kind of don't want to be paying the hefty monthly fees for something I wouldn't be using at all until some unspecified later time.
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Old 02-24-2018, 06:59 AM
 
1,248 posts, read 566,036 times
Reputation: 2280
Quote:
Originally Posted by mlb View Post
My mother, who passed away at 94 in a nursing home spent 8 years from admission to the ALC to her last day here on earth in hospice/nursing home care.

We're living longer and "better".....and life has been extended but not necessarily in a good way..
I am going to guess that was private pay. My mother had medicaid, after we informed the nursing home that we would be taking her out to a new home... suddenly they changed her meds and within a week, she had a heart attack and was gone.

If you have the money to keep paying the nursing home... they will keep your loved one alive. If you don't... or are choosing to move... suddenly your loved one will up and die.
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Old 02-24-2018, 07:09 AM
mlb
 
Location: North Monterey County
3,178 posts, read 2,853,807 times
Reputation: 4876
Quote:
Originally Posted by EmilyFoxSeaton View Post
I am going to guess that was private pay. My mother had medicaid, after we informed the nursing home that we would be taking her out to a new home... suddenly they changed her meds and within a week, she had a heart attack and was gone.

If you have the money to keep paying the nursing home... they will keep your loved one alive. If you don't... or are choosing to move... suddenly your loved one will up and die.
It was private pay - but I don't believe for a moment that the nursing home she was at would actively expedite any client's death.

If you want to be accredited by the state (Wisconsin) and qualify for Medicaid funding - I don't know what the qualifications are but nursing homes have a certain amount of Medicaid beds to qualify - you don't "hasten" the death of your non-paying clients.
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